By Kate PlummerShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberRepublican U.S. Senate candidate Mike Rogers is likely to win the upcoming election in Michigan, according to a new poll, after earlier surveys had him trailing his potential Democratic opponents.
After Democratic Senator Gary Peters opted to not run for reelection, his seat became open and various candidates threw their hat into the ring to run in the November 2026 midterms.
According to polling by Mitchell Research & Communications, Rogers, a former congressman who lost the Senate race last November against Democrat Elissa Slotkin, would beat all three potential Democratic contenders for the seat.
“While Mike’s socialist opponents battle it out in their bloody primary, Mike Rogers is winning,” Rogers spokesperson Alyssa Brouillet told Newsweek: “Michiganders are sick and tired of Democrats in this state killing our jobs, failing our schools, turning a blind eye to violent crime, and trying to shoot our taxes through the roof—and the polls reflect it. Mike Rogers will right the ship and get Michigan working again.”
...Why It Matters
Michigan is an important swing state. In 2016, U.S. President Donald Trump took it, but former President Joe Biden flipped it back to blue in 2020. Then, in 2024, Trump retook the state by a whisker, winning 49.7 percent of the vote to former Vice President Kamala Harris' 48.3 percent.
In the November 2026 midterms, Republicans are looking to retain control of both houses in Congress, so every seat in the Senate matters. There, they currently have 53 seats to the Democrats' 47, so if they lose just a few seats it will be more difficult for the Trump administration to push through its agenda.
What To Know
Three Democrats are running in the primary. These are U.S. Representative Haley Stevens, State Senator Mallory McMorrow and progressive candidate Abdul El-Sayed.
According to the Mitchell Research & Communications poll, if Rogers was put up against El-Sayed, he would win with 41 percent of the vote to El-Sayed's 38 percent. If McMorrow was his opponent, he would win with 44 percent to 38 percent. And if he was pit against Stevens, he would win by 2 percentage points—with 42 percent of the vote share to 40 percent.
The poll of 616 people was conducted between November 18 and 21 and had a margin of error of 3.7 percentage points.
Previous poling suggested Rogers was narrowly behind Stevens and McMorrow. A November poll, conducted by EPIC-MRA and originally published in the Detroit Free Press, showed Stevens, who represents an Oakland County-based district composed of Detroit suburbs, leading Rogers by 2 percentage points (44-42). Meanwhile McMorrow, who holds a suburban seat in the state Senate, held a 1-point lead over Rogers (43-42).
The poll surveyed 600 Michigan residents from November 6-11 and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4 percentage points.
What People Are Saying
A spokesperson for State Senator Mallory McMorrow previously told Newsweek that polls show she "has the momentum in the primary and is the only candidate who beats Rogers in the general [election]."
Joetta Appiah, a spokesperson for Haley Stevens' campaign, in a statement: "This is the latest poll confirming that Haley Stevens is the strongest candidate to defeat Mike Rogers and keep Michigan’s must-win Senate seat blue. While Mike Rogers wants to rubber-stamp Trump’s price-hiking, chaos agenda, Haley Stevens is focused on lowering costs, shaping the future of Michigan’s manufacturing economy, and building a wide coalition of support on the ground."
What Happens Next
Michigan's primary will be held in August 2026 and the general election will take place in November 2026.
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