By Joe EdwardsShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberA recent study has found that the way cities expand could leave up to 220 million people in parts of the world without access to clean water by 2050.
Why It Matters
As urban populations continue to surge, decisions about how and where new buildings and neighborhoods are developed could affect not just city infrastructure but the daily lives and health of hundreds of millions.
What To Know
The study, led by researchers from the Complexity Science Hub (CSH) in Vienna and the World Bank, analyzed over 100 cities across Africa, Asia, and Latin America, with the team examining data from 183 million buildings and 125,000 household surveys.
The team modeled three scenarios for how cities might double in size by 2050: compact (densely filling existing areas), persistent (continuing current patterns), and horizontal (spreading outward).
...Under the horizontal sprawl scenario, 220 million fewer city dwellers would have access to piped drinking water, and 190 million fewer would be served by sewage systems in 2050, compared with outcomes under a compact urban development approach. The cost of water services is also significantly higher in sprawling cities, the study noted.
Water bills in sprawling cities are already about 75 percent higher than in compact cities, and residents living on the urban fringe have 40 percent less access to critical infrastructure compared to those near the city center, the team noted.
What People Are Saying
CSH Lead author Rafael Prieto-Curiel said: "Water scarcity gets a lot of attention, but urban form is something we can actually control through planning and policy.
"Our analysis shows that effective planning can significantly enhance access to water and sanitation. Compact, walkable neighborhoods with adequate density aren't just environmentally sustainable. They ensure that basic services are available to everyone.
"Basically, our work shows that, by building cities better, we would be able to increase access to water and sanitation services. This can be done just by considering the shape of a city, no need to invest more money or build more infrastructure, but only considering the location of where that happens."
What Happens Next
According to the study, urban populations in Africa and Asia are projected to surge dramatically by 2050—tripling in Africa and rising by half in Asia. African cities, in particular, are already more sprawling than their Asian counterparts, with only 12 percent of residents living centrally compared to 23 percent in Asia, according to the study.
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