JPMorgan reveals new Bitcoin target amid market pullback

BTC-USD -0.04% JPM +1.53%

Bitcoin (BTC) could climb to $240,000 over the long term, according to a recent JPMorgan note assessing the asset’s evolving market structure.

The projection followed a weak stretch for the broader crypto market, with BTC falling from its early October peak of $126,000 to around $82,000 in November.

At the time of writing, BTC had stabilized near $86,610.

Crypto 'behaving like a macro asset,' JPMorgan says

In the note, analysts wrote that crypto markets are now influenced more by macroeconomic forces than by Bitcoin’s four-year halving cycle, which historically preceded major bull runs.

“Crypto is moving away from resembling a venture capital style ecosystem to a typical tradable macro asset class supported by institutional liquidity rather than retail speculation,” the bank said.

The analysts added that early-stage projects once relied on large private rounds that left retail investors buying late at steep valuations.

Retail participation has since declined, they said, and institutional investors now provide market depth, helping stabilize flows and potentially anchoring long-term prices.

"Cryptocurrency prices are now more influenced by broader economic trends rather than crypto's predictable four-year halving cycle, the process where the rate of new supply of Bitcoin is cut in half and followed by a bull market rally."

One speaker at the bank’s event suggested BTC could “potentially reach $240K over the long term,” framing Bitcoin as a multi-year growth play rather than a cyclical asset.

Despite the structural shift, JPMorgan argued that cryptocurrencies still offer “liquid yet structurally inefficient” markets where uneven liquidity can result in sharp price swings.

More News:

• JPMorgan issues new crypto stock ratings after MSCI backlash

• Wall Street giants including BlackRock dump MicroStrategy shares

• MicroStrategy stock drops 60% from peak as mNAV approaches 1

JPMorgan unveils Bitcoin-linked structured note

JPMorgan also filed a new structured product tied to BlackRock's iShares Bitcoin Trust ETF (IBIT). According to the filing, the note gives investors the possibility of “uncapped” upside through 2028 if BTC rallies sharply.

Here is how it works:

• If IBIT reaches or exceeds JPMorgan’s preset price by the end of 2026, the bank redeems the note early and pays a minimum 16% return.

• If IBIT stays below that level, the note continues through 2028, offering leveraged exposure. Investors may earn 1.5 times their principal with no upper limit if IBIT exceeds the bank’s 2028 target.

• The product includes downside protection, allowing investors to recover principal in 2028 unless IBIT falls more than 30% that year.

JPMorgan warned in its risk disclosure that the notes “do not guarantee any return of principal.” If the note is not called early and the ETF’s final value falls below the barrier, “you will lose 1% of the principal amount of your notes for every 1% that the Final Value is less than the Initial Value.”

Under certain outcomes, the bank said, investors “could lose all of your principal amount at maturity.”

Related: MSCI delisting shock erases 45% of crypto-treasury value

JPMorgan faces backlash over MSCI-linked analysis

The bank also faced criticism this week after a research note circulated containing analysis related to Morgan Stanley Capital International (MSCI).

The index provider is considering whether to exclude companies that hold more than 50% of their balance sheet in crypto assets.

One firm potentially affected is the leading Bitcoin treasury company called MicroStrategy, now Strategy (NASDAQ: MSTR), which holds 649,870 BTC. The note estimated that the company could face up to $2.8 billion in outflows if removed from MSCI indices, and as much as $8.8 billion if other index providers adopt similar rules.

The controversy escalated after Strike CEO Jack Mallers said the bank closed his personal accounts in September, citing “concerning activity” and the Bank Secrecy Act. Mallers publicly accused the bank of unfair targeting.

Bitcoin supporters reacted sharply, with several prominent users calling for a boycott of JPMorgan.

Related: 107-year-old bank expects all MSCI indices to dump MicroStrategy

This story was originally published by TheStreet on Nov 26, 2025, where it first appeared in the Trading News & Analysis section. Add TheStreet as a Preferred Source by clicking here.