How Is Costco’s Stock Performance Compared to Other Consumer Defensive Stocks?

COST +1.56%

Washington-based Costco Wholesale Corporation (COST) has carved out a dominant position in global retail by selling high volumes of food and general merchandise at deeply discounted prices through its exclusive membership model. Supported by a growing network of warehouses across major international regions, the company continues to widen its global footprint.

Alongside its physical expansion, Costco’s e-commerce platforms in many of these markets further strengthen its reach and accessibility. With a market capitalization of roughly $392 billion, the company firmly sits in the “mega-cap” category, reserved for businesses valued above $200 billion, reflecting its substantial impact and size within the retail landscape. Still, Costco’s impressive market footprint hasn’t shielded it from recent investor pessimism.

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Over the last three months, the stock has dropped 7.6%, reflecting growing caution around the retail and consumer staples space. For context, even the sector benchmark, the Consumer Staples Select Sector SPDR Fund (XLP), is down 6.6% in that time, suggesting Costco’s pullback is a bit more pronounced than the broader defensive category it belongs to. After soaring to a 52-week high of $1,078.23 back in February, the stock has since retreated, giving up nearly 17.8% from that peak.

Zooming out, the longer-term view hasn’t been kind to Costco either. The stock has fallen roughly 8.1% over the past year and remains down 3.3% in 2025. In contrast, the XLP is off by a softer 6% over the past 12 months and 2.1% this year, highlighting that Costco has been lagging its defensive peers.

Adding to the bearish picture, Costco’s shares have stayed below both the 50-day and 200-day moving averages since late August, a clear technical signal that momentum has shifted firmly to the downside.

Costco is navigating a challenging environment, with higher merchandise costs, tariff uncertainties, margin pressure, and concerns around consumer spending putting noticeable stress on the stock. Competition across the discount retail space hasn’t made things any easier. Even so, the company’s fiscal 2025 fourth-quarter earnings in September came in stronger than expected.

CFO Gary Millerchip emphasized that Costco has been actively working to offset tariff-related cost increases. For the final quarter of 2025, revenue rose 8.1% year over year (YOY) to $86.16 billion, while earnings per share (EPS) climbed 11% to $5.87, both slightly ahead of analyst forecasts calling for $86 billion in revenue and $5.80 in EPS.

COST’s lagging performance really stands out when placed next to fellow discount retailer Dollar General (DG). While Costco has been sliding, DG shares have surged, up an impressive 35.7% over the past year and another 34.1% so far in 2025.

Even though Costco’s recent price action has been far from ideal, analysts aren’t turning bearish on the retailer. The stock currently holds a “Moderate Buy” consensus from 34 analysts, with the average price target of $1,078 suggesting roughly 21.6% upside from current levels.

On the date of publication, Anushka Mukherjee did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com