By Daniel Orton and Jordan KingShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberThe Republican and Democratic contenders for Tennessee’s 7th District are locked in a dead heat, according to a new poll—an unexpected shift in a seat President Donald Trump won by 22 points in 2024.
An Emerson College/The Hill survey released on the final day of in-person early voting shows Republican Matt Van Epps leading Democrat Aftyn Behn 48 percent to 46 percent among likely voters, with five percent undecided and two percent backing third-party candidates. The poll has a margin of error of 3.9 percentage points. When leaning voters are included, the gap narrows to 49–47 percent, underscoring a dramatic tightening in a district long considered a GOP stronghold.
“The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on Election Day, and who stays home,” said the executive director of Emerson College Polling, Spencer Kimball.
This is because those who report voting early back Behn 56 percent to 42 percent while those who plan to vote on Election Day back Van Epps 51 percent to 39 percent.
More voters under the age of 40 support Behn (64 percent) while Van Epps’ supporters tend to be older – 61 percent under 70.
There is also a gender divide among voters with women backing Behn by 6 points (50 percent to 44 percent) and men supporting Van Epps by 9 points (51 percent to 42 percent).
Tennessee’s 7th District spans 12 counties including Decatur, Dickson, Hickman, Houston, Humphreys, Montgomery, Perry, Robertson, Stewart, Wayne and Williamson, according to local broadcaster FOX17 WZTV Nashville.
There are six candidates on the ballot but national attention has largely been focused on Behn, a former social worker who is currently in the Tennessee General Assembly and Van Epps, retired U.S. Army officer who has previously worked as the Commissioner of Tennessee’s Department of General Services.
The special election is set for December 2.
...More to follow.
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