Dominion Energy, Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary

Dominion Energy, Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary Moby Intelligence Tue, February 24, 2026 at 1:32 AM GMT+8 4 min read In this article:

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Dominion Energy, Inc. Q4 2025 Earnings Call Summary - Moby

Strategic Execution and Operational Drivers

• Management attributed 2025 outperformance to high-quality earnings and robust credit results, achieving the highest CFO pre-working-capital to debt metric since 2012.

• The 30% increase in the five-year capital plan to $65 billion is driven primarily by Dominion Energy Virginia, home to the world's largest data center market.

• Data center demand is characterized as 'high quality' and 'low risk' because forecasts are based on 20-plus gigawatts of signed Electrical Service Agreements (ESAs) rather than preliminary inquiries.

• The company emphasized that existing signed contracts already cover forecasted data center demand through 2045, providing a highly realistic 20-year growth runway.

• Operational efficiency remains a core strategic pillar, with management highlighting a proven track record of maintaining residential rates below the national average despite significant load growth.

• The Coastal Virginia Offshore Wind (CVOW) project is over 70% complete, with management focusing on 'prudent construction management' by deliberately slowing initial turbine iterations to ensure long-term reliability.

• Strategic positioning in South Carolina is focused on closing the earned ROE gap through a pending rate case and potential legislative shifts toward more frequent formulaic rate reviews.

Long-Term Outlook and Financial Assumptions

• Management expects to achieve the upper half of the 5% to 7% annual operating EPS growth range starting in 2028, driven by improved business fundamentals and increased regulated investment.

• The 2026 guidance midpoint of $3.50 per share (excluding RNG credits) assumes a 6.1% increase over 2025, despite a double refueling outage year at the Millstone nuclear station.

• Financing for the $65 billion capital plan will rely on approximately 60% internally generated cash flow and 10% programmatic common equity to maintain strong investment-grade credit ratings.

• The company will revisit its dividend growth rate only after achieving a peer-aligned payout ratio, prioritizing balance sheet strength to fund the enlarged capital program.

• Future earnings growth is expected to be biased toward the back half of the five-year plan as long-lead projects, such as gas generation, enter service and begin full cash flow conversion.

Risk Factors and Strategic Adjustments

• RNG 45Z credit guidance was lowered to reflect updated credit scoring and lower production assumptions, though management continues to await final federal regulations.

• A human performance error during CVOW turbine installation caused a two-week delay; management characterized this as a non-repeating event and noted the budget includes contingency through July 2027.

• Potential tariff exposure for CVOW is being monitored following a recent Supreme Court ruling, with the budget to be updated as the regulatory landscape for steel and country-specific tariffs clarifies.

• Millstone's future trajectory depends on a pending Connecticut RFP for zero-carbon energy, with bids due in March and results expected to clarify the plant's post-2029 earnings profile.

Story Continues

Q&A Session Highlights

Drivers of 6% growth in 2026 despite Millstone outages

• Growth is supported by the full-year impact of the Virginia biennial rate increase and a half-year impact from the South Carolina rate case.

• Management described 2026 as a 'catch-up year' for jurisdictions where the company had previously been under-earning relative to allowed returns.

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CVOW cost sensitivities and timeline beyond July 2027

• If turbine installation extends beyond July 2027, management estimates additional costs of $150 million to $200 million per quarter.

• A portion of any cost overruns would be allocated to the project's financing partner, Stonepeak, per existing contractual provisions.

Data center demand ramp and take-or-pay protections

• Forecasts assume data centers will ramp based on historical performance that typically exceeds minimum contract requirements.

• Management emphasized that the primary driver of financial performance is the ability to deploy low-risk regulated capital to support this load, rather than just sales volume.

Technology preference and capital allocation for SMRs

• The company is in the final stages of evaluating Small Modular Reactor (SMR) technology but has not included SMR construction capital in the current five-year plan.

• Current nuclear capital is focused on subsequent license renewals (SLR), maintenance, and fuel, keeping the balance sheet protected while supporting Virginia's pro-nuclear stance.

Impact of potential Virginia data center tax changes

• Management declined to predict legislative outcomes but reiterated that data centers provide significant economic benefits to state and local economies.

• The company remains confident in the long-term growth trajectory of the sector regardless of ongoing General Assembly debates.

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