How Have Canada’s Seven NHL Teams Fared in Advanced Analytics So Far?

The yearly tradition of optimism, worry, and obsessively checking the scoreboard is already in full swing.

The start of the NHL season isn’t simply a few games for fans all over Canada— it’s a vote on everything the seven teams worked on during the summer. A month into the campaign, the division races are starting to take shape. The stats from the beginning of the season show which teams are built to do well in October and which ones have what it takes to maintain that into April.

You shouldn’t worry or celebrate yet. This is about presenting an honest report card based on facts concerning how well or poorly the Canadian teams have fared. Let’s look at the numbers and storylines that made up the first part of the Canadian NHL season.

The Surprising Leaders and Early Dominance

Two Canadian clubs have jumped out to starts that defy their pre-season projections: The Montreal Canadiens and Winnipeg Jets.

Excellent goaltending and tough five-on-five play are the keys to the Canadiens’ success. NHL data show that Montreal, often thought of as a rebuilding team, has one of the best Goals For (GF) totals in the Eastern Conference right now (84, tied for sixth and only 7 behind the conference-leading Washington Capitals).

In the Western Conference, the Jets are showing that a good defense and top-notch system play are still the keys to success, which makes them a real contender in the Central Division. 25 games in, the Jets have allowed the sixth-fewest goals in the West.

Elite Talent: The Heavyweights We Expect

People are still talking about the Edmonton Oilers and the Toronto Maple Leafs with high hopes. Both teams are still very important because they have superstar players, but their starts have been a mix of offensive fireworks and defensive holes.

The Oilers’ power play continues to be historically potent, converting at a clip that keeps them in every game. Even if they have all-world quality, their Goals Against per 60 Minutes (GAA/60) at even strength should still worry them, as they hold the fifth-worst mark in the league at 2.89.

Nonetheless, their goalie play has been impressive as of late.

Edmonton also has a top-half Corsi For Percentage (CF%) of 50.79%, meaning they have control of the puck more often than not.

The issue is in execution; they depend too much on their top line to turn chances into goals, which leads to frustrating defeats when the offense fails. The stats show that the Oilers are good, but their reliance on offense hides important structural problems that need to be addressed if they want to make the playoffs.

Toronto, meanwhile, has the sixth-worst CF% at 46%, but still scores the second-most goals in full-strength situations. This simply means they are making the most of their time with the puck.

The Rebuilders’ Hard Road

The Ottawa Senators are playing well, which suggests they are close to contention. Some fans even think they’re the best team in Canada.

Ottawa’s young core is exciting, but they struggle to be consistent. They routinely beat a good team only to lose to a divisional rival.

The Vancouver Canucks, meanwhile, have the highest Expected Goals Against (xGA) in the league at 69.01, which has undoubtedly contributed to their slow decline in recent games.

That leaves us with the Calgary Flames, who boast the worst record of the seven Canadian teams at 9-15-4, and remain firmly in the rebuilding stage.

The Canadian Fan’s Quiet Digital Life

The amount of NHL action on any given night frequently requires a level of focus distinctly Canadian.

The commitment to follow seven teams across four time zones leaves a massive digital imprint. This passion for the puck spills over into other kinds of digital fun. Many Canadian adults use other platforms for entertainment, including running complicated fantasy hockey teams or streaming movies and TV shows.

These activities now exist alongside the growing number of licensed and regulated digital services in the country, such as the numerous online casinos in Canada that are part of this wide competitive digital ecosystem.

What Advanced Statistics Tell Us

In the end, the advanced numbers reveal that teams that win by having better shots (Expected Goals Percentage, or xG%) will endure longer than those that only rely on good shooting luck (PDO).

As December goes on, keep an eye on the teams whose analytical base is falling apart. One team that has a high PDO is the Canucks. This suggests that their numbers are likely to drop. The Calgary Flames, on the other side, might have better core stats, even though they didn’t start off well. This suggests that they could jump up the ranks with a change in direction or a major win, but don’t expect them to leap into contention anytime soon.

In addition to fighting (sometimes literally) their opponents, Canadian clubs also have to contend with the grueling 82-game season that seemingly has very dim light at the end of the tunnel.

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