Patriots receive Super Bowl vote of confidence from The Athletic after 11-2 start

Patriots receive Super Bowl vote of confidence from The Athletic after 11-2 start originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

Nobody expected Drake Maye and the New England Patriots to be this good this early. And even throughout their 11-2 start to the 2025 campaign, they’ve been treated like little brothers.

They’ve been getting encouraging pats on the head, but no one has really taken the Pats seriously as Super Bowl contenders this season. Maybe to win a playoff game, but surely not three? Right?

Well, after their 10th straight win of the season, a 33-15 Monday Night Football beatdown of the two-win New York Giants, they are being taken seriously.

At least by the numbers guys. The Athletic updated their popular playoff simulator chart—which calculates probabilities for teams to make the playoffs, win the division, get a first-round bye, and win the Super Bowl—after the game.

And there, where it’s all about the numbers and probabilities and no pre-conceived notions, the Patriots were being taken as seriously as ever: their 16 percent probability of winning Super Bowl LX is the highest in the NFL through Week 13.

Can the Patriots actually win Super Bowl LX?

A slightly closer look reveals that the Patriots have really taken advantage of a lax schedule. They have just two wins against teams in line for a playoff spot right now. But even so, you can only beat who’s put in front of you, right?

And they beat both the Tampa Bay Buccaneers and Buffalo Bills. And they beat them both on the road, and they beat them both convincingly. They didn’t get lucky to get those wins, they earned them and deserved them.

And a lot of that is down to Patriots QB Drake Maye, who is having what could end up an MVP campaign. He leads the league in completion percentage (71.2), passing yards (3,412), and passer rating (111.9). He is also second in yards per attempt (8.8) and fourth in passing TDs (23).

Apart from the offensive line, there aren’t many weaknesses in this roster. And with their final four games coming vs. the Bills, at the Ravens, at the Jets, and vs. the Dolphins, they could very easily win 13 or 14 games. Denver is the only team that can catch them now, and they have a much tougher remaining schedule (11th-toughest, New England’s is 22nd).

So if they do get the No. 1 seed in the AFC and that first-round bye (which The Athletic’s simulator says they have a 59 percent chance of doing) they will be in a great spot.

They won’t have to go on the road, which is huge. And with Patrick Mahomes possibly missing the postseason altogether and Josh Allen and Lamar Jackson not looking their world-beating selves, the AFC is wide open.

Making it to the Super Bowl is very reasonable for Maye and the Pats. But beating the best from what seems a much stronger NFC? That’s a whole other ball game.