The Michigan Wolverines as 2025 Big Ten football champions? It's still possible.
Michigan (9-2, 7-1 Big Ten) will be facing No. 1-ranked Ohio State (11-0, 8-0 Big Ten) in their annual rivalry game Saturday, Nov. 29 at noon ET at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementNo conference championship scenario comes with a Michigan loss, meaning it must beat Ohio State for a fifth straight season to keep conference title hopes alive.
But if the Wolverines can pull off the upset, things will get interesting in their quest for a conference title.
THE GAME: Michigan vs Ohio State football prediction, betting odds
Big Ten championship game scenarios
There are four Big Ten teams competing for two spots in the conference championship game at Lucas Oil Stadium in Indianapolis on Dec. 6: Ohio State, Indiana, Oregon and Michigan.
Both Ohio State and Indiana are undefeated, giving each the inside track to Indy, while Oregon and Michigan each have one loss and need to win and get help to make the title game.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementA Michigan win over Ohio State will supercharge its candidacy for the College Football Playoff, but won't guarantee it a spot for the conference title in Indianapolis, with Michigan appearing in only three of the seven potential title-game scenarios.
Let's break them all down.
If Michigan wins against Ohio State ...
Michigan fans cheer as the school's marching band performs before the Oregon football game at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, Nov. 2, 2024.Here's how Michigan can make the Big Ten title game:
Michigan defeats Ohio State.
Indiana defeats Purdue.
Washington defeats Oregon.
This would leave two teams tied for second (Michigan and Ohio State) with the Wolverines advancing on a head-to-head tiebreaker. (Oregon is a touchdown favorite at Washington on Saturday. Michigan is a 10-point home underdog against Ohio State.)
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementMichigan would not make the Big Ten title game if this happens:
Michigan defeats Ohio State.
Indiana defeats Purdue
Oregon defeats Washington.
This would place Indiana on top of the Big Ten with Michigan, Ohio State and Oregon tied for second with an 8-1 conference record. In this scenario, Oregon would advance to the title game to play Indiana on a common conference opponent tiebreaker over Ohio State and Michigan. Oregon just beat USC; Michigan lost at USC.
Here's two more ways Michigan can make the Big Ten title game, but both require Purdue (2-9, 0-8), at home, shocking Indiana as four-touchdown underdogs on Friday night:
Michigan defeats Ohio State.
Purdue defeats Indiana.
Oregon defeats Washington.
This is by far the most complicated scenario since it would leave all four teams at 8-1 and require seven tiebreakers to untangle the mess, but it would leave Oregon at No. 1 in the conference and Michigan at No. 2.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementMichigan can also make the Big Ten title game if this happens:
Michigan defeats Ohio State.
Purdue defeats Indiana.
Washington defeats Oregon.
This is the wildest scenario. See below.
Can Michigan and Ohio State play in Big Ten championship game?
Yes, a rematch between the Wolverines and Buckeyes for the 2025 conference title is possible. Here's how:
Michigan defeats Ohio State.
Purdue defeats Indiana.
Washington defeats Oregon.
This would have Indiana, Ohio State and Michigan tied atop the conference, with Indiana eliminated on a common opponent tiebreaker (losing to Purdue), and Michigan getting the top seed on a head-to-head tiebreaker with Ohio State. OSU finishes second, setting up a second straight matchup between the rivals.
Have Michigan and Ohio State played each other in Big Ten championship game?
Not in football. Until 2024, the Wolverines and Buckeyes were in the same division, meaning they could not meet in the conference title game.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementOnce the Big Ten expanded to 18 teams, it ditched divisions. The top two teams in the conference now meet in the Big Ten championship, no matter if they've already played in the regular season or not.
In 2024, Oregon defeated Penn State, 45-37.
If Michigan loses to Ohio State ...
Michigan quarterback Bryce Underwood (19) fumbles the ball against Purdue defensive lineman CJ Nunnally (91) during the second half at Michigan Stadium in Ann Arbor on Saturday, November 1, 2025.There is no scenario that has Michigan in the conference championship game with a loss. If Michigan loses, you can pencil in Ohio State and Indiana into the championship game regardless of the other outcomes.
Indiana and Ohio State will clinch a berth to the title game with wins. This is the cleanest and most likely scenario.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementIf Ohio State wins but Indiana loses, Indiana would still advance regardless of the outcome of the Oregon-Washington game, since the Hoosiers own a head-to-head tiebreaker over the Ducks.
Basically, Indiana fans are rooting for Ohio State, and Oregon fans are rooting for Michigan – a reverse of last week, when Michigan fans were rooting for Oregon to beat USC.
Got all that? Good! Now, let's play some football!
Need to catch up on the news during your lunch break? Sign up for our Sports Briefing newsletter to get daily summaries of Detroit sports!
You can reach Christian at [email protected].
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThis article originally appeared on Detroit Free Press: Michigan Big Ten championship game tiebreaker scenarios
AdvertisementAdvertisement
