Xavier v. St. Francis: Preview, matchups, and keys to the game

Just over two weeks ago, Xavier was coming off of back-to-back beatings and their season seemed dead in the water. Cobbled together out of entirely new parts, they looked disjointed at both ends of the court, rotating wrong on defense to allow easy baskets and stagnating entirely on offense. Something changed in a 30-point beating of Old Dominion and solidified with a +9 scoring margin over two games in Charleston against Georgia and West Virginia. Not yet entirely devoid of flaws, they at least looked like a D1 basketball outfit.

The same could hardly be said of Saint Francis, whose only win has come against Franciscan, a team outside the Division entirely. They’ve not come within single digits of any team ranked better than 300 in the KenPom and have generally been traveling the country paying the athletic department’s bills. It has been a tough go of it in head coach Luke McConnell’s first season, and it doesn’t seem to necessarily been trending in a hopeful direction.

Team fingerprint

The offense has been an absolute anchor for this team, ranking 359th in the adjusted efficiency. You could perhaps surmise that they’re not good anywhere from seeing that single stat, and you’d be right. They’re bad at shooting both inside and beyond the arc, turn the ball over a ton, and can’t get to the offensive glass at all. They’re actually a touch above average from the free throw line, but only four teams in the entirety of Division 1 are worse at getting to the line.

The defense is only a bright spot in comparison at 317th in the nation in adjusted efficiency. They’re actually strong in turning opponents over, sitting 65th in the nation with a TO rate of 20.3%. That’s where the good news ends. They’re 363rd in the nation in EFG%, being awful in defending the arc and even worse inside it. They foul a lot and are incredibly porous on the boards. They’re 341st in 3P rate on defense, allowing almost half of their opponents’ shots from there. They also don’t block many shots, making them their paint defense the moveable object that will put Xavier’s stoppable force of an interior attack to the test.

Players

Starters

Starting matchups

Ahmad Harrison

Point Guard

All Wright

Senior

Class

Sophomore

6’1″, 190

Measurements

6’3″, 190

7.7/2.1/1.7

Game line

10.9/1.8/2.1

43.6/40/66.7

Shooting line

47.6/54.3/80

That three-point percentage is on just 10 attempts this season; he’s not a sniper. He’s a good defender, but he isn’t an effective offensive player and turns the ball over way too much to be a worthwhile facilitator. He was in over his head as a freshman at Fordham, spent a couple of years in the JuCo ranks, and has resurfaced at the D1 level swimming against the tide this year.

Zion Russell

Shooting Guard

Malik Messina-Moore

Senior

Class

Senior

6’2″, 185

Measurements

6’5″, 200

11.3/4.1/2.6

Game line

7.3/2.8/3.8

35.8/18.5/80

Shooting line

30.2/28.6/69.2

The superior Russell brother, though that’s probably faint praise. He’s an okay shooter – probably better than he has shown this year – and can score it from all over when he’s going well. He was a solid contributor at Niagara last year but is yet to find his feet this season. He’s not a statistically impressive rebounder or defender.

Victor Payne

Small Forward

Tre Carroll

Sophomore

Class

Senior

6’4″, 190

Measurements

6’8″, 235

5.7/3.7/0.9

Game line

15.3/5.4/2.8

36.4/32/80

Shooting line

44/40.5/73.1

I wonder how much slack a guy will get before he’s not a rotation player anymore. Payne fouls a lot, is 9-37 from deep on his career, and has a bit of a turnover problem. He defends well, but the foul trouble undermines those efforts. At least he’s good from the line, though he doesn’t get there often.

Brandon Russell

Power Forward

Filip Borovicanin

Freshman

Class

Senior

6’5″, 185

Measurements

6’9″, 227

3.7/1.4/0.9

Game line

8.4/7.5/3.9

20/11.8/83.3

Shooting line

45.9/19/87.5

The other Russell; I guess I don’t know for certain that they’re brothers. Brandon is a guard playing out of position this far down the lineup, but the reality is that Saint Francis is – at least at the start – going to run with four guards. He has awful shooting numbers, solid defensive stats, and a bit of a foul problem.

Gestin Liberis

Center

Jovan Milicevic

Senior

Class

Sophomore

6’9″, 215

Measurements

6’10”, 241

4.7/3.7/0.7

Game line

13.8/3.9/1

46.2/16.7/47.1

Shooting line

44.4/46.9/71.4

When you’re the only guy on the roster over 6’6″, you get to be the center. Sorry, I don’t make the rules. Liberis is off to a bad start on the glass this year, but he is historically a good defensive rebounder. He’s turning the ball over a ton this year and shooting really badly from everywhere, but at least he’s also a bad rim protector!

Reserves

The team’s obvious best player is 6’6″ forward Skylar Wicks, who averages 19/8.7/2.8 on .412/.368/.800 shooting. He started the first six games of the season before sitting out last time against Franciscan for reasons I can’t track down. He can guard one through four and rebounds well on the defensive end. The game notes on Saint Francis’s official page list him as coming off the bench, so I’m deferring to their insider knowledge here.

There are only two other players who make meaningful contributions off the bench. The first of those is 6’6″, 240-pound big man Cam Tweedy. He averages 6.3/3.6/0.9, bolstering his ORtg with decent offensive rebounding numbers and decent shooting from inside the arc. He doesn’t go beyond the arc at all and generally moves through the game without affecting it too much. The other is Ralph Martino, a 6’6″ wing who averages 5.3/2.0/1.3. He’s the team’s most efficient player but has a miniscule 11.5% usage rate. His sparkling .593/.429/1.000 shooting line features only three makes from deep.

Three Questions

– Can Xavier take early control of the game? They did against ODU but it took awhile to get things really rolling against Texas A&M CC. That one was well in hand late, but it still was a long wait to see Mier Panoam. Hopefully that happens earlier today.

– Who is the bench option? Roddie is one of the big five, so he doesn’t count. Who is the next guy to do something? Returns from Anthony Robinson were good against the Islanders, but that’s a small sample against a very bad team. Malik Messina Moore was effective, but once again didn’t have a huge impact on the game. This is another chance for both of them to take a step forward.

– Where is St. Francis? In Loretto, Pa, a town of 1,100 people that occupies less than a square mile. It’s in the middle of the state, in between 76 and 80. In short, it is in the middle of nowhere and there is no easy way to get there. That a Division One program is there is quite unusual.

Three Keys

– Win early: Get Pape N’Diaye and Mier Panoam some time, empty the bench, let the three point walk on barrage continue. As you may be aware, there is a large game coming up this weekend. Getting the starters 25 minutes and then letting them chill would be ideal today.

– Find some way of scoring inside: Xavier is running the risk of doing their “we can make a layup bit” so much it stops being funny. Against TAMCC they were still somehow only 47.5% inside the arc. Tre Carroll was 4-11. Isaiah Walker, N’Diaye, and Panoam combined to go 0-7. At some point someone has to score a couple of buckets in the paint. This is the 364th interior defense in the nation. If you can’t score inside on these guys, it’s hopeless.

– Tighten up the defense: Richard Pitino’s calling card is defense. His teams have excelled on that end of the floor. This Xavier team has yet to reach that level. Since the Iowa game Xavier is 69th in defensive efficiency. Given their rather inconsistent approach to making shots, that number will have to get simultaneously less nice and more nice for the Musketeers to add any real quality wins.