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Texas A&M predicted to drop several spots in latest CFP projection

2025-12-01 12:04
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Texas A&M is currently predicted as the 6-seed in the latest CFP projection from ESPN, but still has a shot at No. 4.

Texas A&M predicted to drop several spots in latest CFP projectionStory byCameron Ohnysty, Aggies WireMon, December 1, 2025 at 12:04 PM UTC·2 min read

Texas A&M (11-1, 7-1 SEC) returned to College Station this weekend on a low note after losing to rival Texas (9-3, 6-2 SEC) 27-17 on Friday night, as the Aggies missed out on a chance to make the SEC Championship Game for the first time in program history for the second consecutive season after falling to the Longhorns in Kyle Field 17-7 this time last year.

Yes, the Aggies haven't defeated Texas since 2010, but they did finish the regular season with 11 wins for the first time since 1992, including an early-season road win of Notre Dame, and three straight road wins over Arkansas, LSU, and Missouri.

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Texas A&M's 3rd-ranked strength of record and 15th-ranked strength of schedule will also play into the Selection Committee's decision on Tuesday night on how far the Aggies should fall after losing to Texas, and according to ESPN college football insider Heather Dinnich, Texas A&M could fall as far as the No. 6 seed.

"The Aggies have only one win against a team in the CFP top 25, and that was the 41-40 victory at Notre Dame on Sept. 13. It was carrying them before, and it might not be enough now to keep a first-round bye as one of the top-four teams. The Aggies will likely drop to the Nos. 4-6 range behind Georgia. The Bulldogs have better wins, including a 35-10 drubbing of Texas, a common opponent. Georgia also has a better loss (to No. 10 Alabama), and has now clinched a spot in the SEC title game. There would be a strong debate, though, about whether the Aggies should fall below Texas Tech and/or Oregon. The Ducks have impressed the committee lately by ranking in the top five in offensive and defensive efficiency."

However, Dinnich also noted that the Selection Committee has "a lot of respect for the Aggies' four road wins" and ranks the Aggies' strength of schedule higher than Texas Tech's, who are projected as the 4-seed in this bracket.

While it's widely anticipated that the Aggies will fall to as low as the 7-seed and host a first-round game in Kyle Field, anything is possible if Texas Tech, Indiana, and Georgia lose during Championship weekend, which would place Texas A&M back in the conversation for the No. 4 spot and a first-round bye.

If Texas A&M ends up at No. 6, the Aggies would host ACC Champ Virginia, but if Duke wins on Saturday, Tulane or North Texas would be the potential first-round matchup.

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This article originally appeared on Aggies Wire: Texas A&M predicted to drop several spots in ESPN CFP projection

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