College football bowl projections for championship week: What are the three best bowl matchups outside CFP?

College football bowl projections for championship week: What are the three best bowl matchups outside CFP? originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

It's all about the College Football Playoff now.

We accept that. The 12-team field will be completed on Dec. 7, and perhaps no team has a more interesting path than Duke. The Blue Devils could win the ACC championship on Saturday and still play in the Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl, where we have them projected to face Penn State – the preseason No. 2 that squeaked out bowl eligibility last week.

Outside of the College Football Playoff, we have three very-enticing bowl matchups that lend credence to the fact that there should probably be 16 teams in the College Football Playoff. What are those matchups?

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31): Michigan-Texas feels like the blockbuster watch outside the College Football Playoff in a matchup between Bryce Underwood and Arch Manning. Which QB starts the hype machine for 2026?

Duke's Mayo Bowl (Jan. 2): We have Vanderbilt against Miami – a battle of teams that probably should be in the 12-team field. Will Diego Pavia – a potential Heisman finalist – play in this one?

DirecTV Holiday Bowl (Jan. 2): Washington-Georgia Tech would be a springboard for two programs looking to the next step with respective coaches Jedd Fisch and Brent Key, and it's one more chance to watch Haynes King with the Yellow Jackets.

The penultimate set of College Football Playoff rankings was unveiled Tuesday. Sporting News will have weekly bowl projections leading up to the unveiling of the 12-team field on Dec. 7.

The first round of the new CFP will have one game on Friday, Dec. 19, and three on Saturday, Dec. 20.

The quarterfinals will be played at the Cotton Bowl Classic (Dec. 31), Capital One Orange Bowl (Jan. 1), Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (Jan. 1) and Allstate Sugar Bowl (Jan. 1).

The semifinals will be played at the Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (Jan. 8) and Chick-fil-A Peach Bowl (Jan. 9). The CFP national championship is Jan. 19 in Miami.

Here are our bowl projections for championship week:

MORE:Projected College Football playoff bracket for conference championship week

College football bowl predictions 2025

There are 34 bowls involving FBS teams outside the College Football Playoff this season. A look at our projections for those matchups:

DATE

BOWL

PROJECTION

Dec. 13

Bucked Up LA Bowl Hosted by Gronk

Boise State vs. Washington State

Dec. 16

IS4S Salute to Veterans Bowl*

USF vs. Kansas State

Dec. 17

StaffDNA Cure Bowl

Utah State vs. Miami, Ohio

Dec. 17

68 Ventures Bowl

Western Michigan vs. Troy

Dec. 19

Myrtle Beach Bowl

Western Kentucky vs. Southern Miss

Dec. 19

Union Home Mortgage Gasparilla Bowl

Coastal Carolina vs. FIU

Dec. 22

Famous Idaho Potato Bowl

Toledo vs. Fresno State

Dec. 23

Bush's Boca Raton Bowl

Texas State vs. Louisiana Tech

Dec. 23

New Orleans Bowl

Jacksonville State vs. James Madison

Dec. 23

Scooter's Coffee Frisco Bowl

Old Dominion vs. San Diego State

Dec. 24

Sheraton Hawaii Bowl

North Texas vs. Hawai'i

Dec. 26

GameAbove Sports Bowl

Ohio vs. Northwestern

Dec. 26

Rate Bowl

Nebraska vs. Arizona State

Dec. 26

Servpro First Responder Bowl

UTSA vs. TCU

Dec. 27

Go Bowling Military Bowl

East Carolina vs. Georgia Southern

Dec. 27

Bad Boy Mowers Pinstripe Bowl

Penn State vs. Duke

Dec. 27

Wasabi Fenway Bowl

Navy vs. UConn

Dec. 27

Pop-Tarts Bowl

Arizona vs. Clemson

Dec. 27

Snoop Dogg Arizona Bowl presented by Gin & Juice

Central Michigan vs. UNLV

Dec. 27

Isleta New Mexico Bowl

Kennesaw State vs. New Mexico

Dec. 27

Taxslayer Gator Bowl

Minnesota vs. NC State

Dec. 27

Kinder's Texas Bowl

Cincinnati vs. SMU

Dec. 29

JLab Birmingham Bowl

Memphis vs. Louisiana

Dec. 30

Radiance Technologies Independence Bowl

Wake Forest vs. Iowa State

Dec. 30

Liberty Mutual Music City Bowl

Illinois vs. Pitt

Dec. 30

Valero Alamo Bowl

USC vs. BYU

Dec. 31

Reliaquest Bowl

LSU vs. Iowa

Dec. 31

Tony The Tiger Sun Bowl

Utah vs. Louisville

Dec. 31

Cheez-It Citrus Bowl

Michigan vs. Texas

Dec. 31

SDS Distribution Las Vegas Bowl

Missouri vs. Cal

Jan. 2

Lockheed Martin Armed Forces Bowl

Arkansas State vs. Army

Jan. 2

Autozone Liberty Bowl

Houston vs. Tennessee

Jan. 2

Duke's Mayo Bowl

Vanderbilt vs. Miami, Fla.

Jan. 2

DirecTV Holiday Bowl

Washington vs. Georgia Tech

College Football Playoff first-round predictions

A look at the four College Football Playoff first-round matchups for the 2025-26 season. Those first-round games will be played on campus:

DATE

BOWL

PROJECTION

Dec. 19

First-Round CFP game

No. 9 Notre Dame at No. 8 Oklahoma

Dec. 20

First-Round CFP game

No. 11 Virginia at No. 6 Texas A&M

Dec. 20

First-Round CFP game

No. 12 Tulane at No. 5 Oregon

Dec. 20

First-Round CFP game

No. 10 Alabama at No. 7 Ole Miss

The SEC gets to host three first-round playoff games after having just one last year. We believe the Rebels will still get a home game based on their one-loss record, and as of now their opponent would be Alabama. What a surreal scene that would be at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium. We also get first-round home games at Kyle Field, Autzen Stadium and Gaylord Family-Oklahoma Memorial Stadium. Those are already three of the best environments in college football. Notre Dame and Oklahoma last played in a home-and-home series in 2012-13.

MORE: A closer look at the sizable gap at QB between Ohio State and Michigan

College Football Playoff quarterfinal predictions

A look at the College Football Playoff quarterfinal matchups for the 2025-26 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year's Day Six bowl sites:

DATE

BOWL

PROJECTION

Dec. 31

Cotton Bowl Classic (quarterfinal)

No. 3 Texas Tech vs. No. 6 Texas A&M

Jan. 1

Capital One Orange Bowl (quarterfinal)

No. 4 Indiana vs. No. 5 Oregon

Jan. 1

Rose Bowl Game presented by Prudential (quarterfinal)

No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 9 Notre Dame

Jan. 1

Allstate Sugar Bowl (quarterfinal)

No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 10 Alabama

Texas Tech vs. Texas A&M at the Cotton Bowl? Yes, please. That would be a chance for the Red Raiders – our projected Big 12  champion – to flex a defense that allows 12.3 points per game against an SEC opponent. This would mean we get Georgia-Alabama III, a rematch between Oregon and Indiana from the regular season and a replay of last year's CFP championship game between Ohio State and Notre Dame. That's part of the deal in this new setup. There will be more rematches. Texas A&M is the only team on here that allows more than 17 points per game. These could be defensive struggles across the board.

College Football Playoff semifinal predictions

A look at the College Football Playoff semifinal matchups for the 2025-26 season. Those games will be played at the traditional New Year's Day Six bowl sites:

DATE

BOWL

PROJECTION

Jan. 8

Vrbo Fiesta Bowl (semifinal)

No. 2 Georgia vs. No. 3 Texas Tech

Jan. 9

Chick-Fil-A Peach Bowl (semifinal)

No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 5 Oregon

This scenario says Oregon beats Indiana in the rematch and plays Ohio State in a College Football Playoff semifinal. The Ducks continue to trend in the right direction with Dante Moore and a strong defense. Georgia-Texas Tech would be a fun matchup, too. Substitute Oregon for Indiana, and you have the teams that likely would have been in the four-team College Football Playoff if we were still in that format.

MORE: Will Lane Kiffin's departure to LSU impact Ole Miss' CFP ranking?

College Football Playoff championship pick

A look at the College Football Playoff championship matchup for the 2025-26 season. That game is scheduled for Monday, Jan. 19 at Hard Rock Stadium in Miami Gardens, Fla.

DATE

BOWL

PROJECTION

Jan. 19

CFP National championship

No. 1 Ohio State vs. No. 2 Georgia

We have had this pick for three weeks. The Buckeyes have never won back-to-back national championships. Georgia would have a chance to win its third national title in five years. Kirby Smart and Ryan Day are the best two coaches in the sport right now. A rematch has been in order since the 42-41 thriller on Dec. 31, 2022.