'Next five games will define Bristol City's season'

The next five games will, in my opinion, define Bristol City's season as we near the halfway point of the Championship campaign.

The squad will be stretched to the limit and if, by the time we play Millwall for the second time in the month on 29 December, we are still in the top six then we can consider ourselves genuine play-off contenders.

We are currently four points better off than at the same stage last season and, if we replicated our form of the last 28 games, that would put us on 72 points - just enough to scrape into the play-offs after we got there in the last campaign with a record low of 68 points.

That feat in 2024-25 was only achieved due to outstanding home form from January to Easter - on the road we are rubbish, winning just one of the past 14 away from Ashton Gate.

There are no easy games in this division, as evidenced by Oxford's win over Ipswich on Friday, and whilst we may be inconsistent with a decidedly mediocre two wins in our last six, Stoke, who are in fourth, have lost three of their last four.

Only Coventry, 10 points clear at the top, are showing any level of consistency and must be odds-on for a return to the top flight for the first time in a quarter of a century - still well short of City's 45 years!

So, to the task at hand - how many points in the next five games? I'm looking for eight, which would put us on 37 at the halfway stage and, if you extrapolate that to the end of the season, gives us 74 points and almost certain play-off qualification.

I have deliberately not given a game-by-game prediction as games we should win we sometimes lose and vice versa. Eight points from 15 is two wins, two draws and one loss. Three wins and two losses is better, but I'm trying to be realistic.

Perhaps I should have extended this analysis to include the fixtures between Christmas and New Year so that it became eight games in 27 days - we have the return against Millwall at The Den on 29 December then home games against Pompey (1 January) and Preston (4 January)?

If we are still very much in the mix once the window opens then all eyes will be on the owners as to whether they will go for it with signings, be that loans, new players or offering better terms to the likes of Mehmeti, Vyner and Sykes.

Should we fall away though, I am sorry to say that the likely inflow of funds from the Semenyo profit will be used to offset the ongoing operating losses which continue to be in the range £15m-£20m.

It is likely that the results for the financial year to 30 June, 2025, will be published within weeks and I'm predicting a loss at the mid-point of the range quoted.

You can hear more from David Pottier on the Forever Bristol City podcast.