Nov. 29—After a 24-17 double-overtime win over San Diego State, New Mexico is 6-2 in Mountain West play — tied with the Aztecs and Boise State for first place in the Mountain West. UNLV could join them and create a four-way tie with a win over Nevada on Saturday.
Will UNM make its first-ever Mountain West Championship appearance? Here's what we know:
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementHow will the league select teams for the title game?
At this stage, the two participants will be selected via a "composite average of selected predictive and results-based computer metrics," per the league. That's because UNM, Boise State and SDSU all went 1-1 against each other, so there's no easy way to determine it via head-to-head results; if UNLV joins them at 6-2, the Rebels did not play SDSU, so it would also go to the metrics in that situation.
And what exactly is a "composite average of selected predictive and results-based computer metrics?" This is a hypothetical, but if UNM was 10th, 15th, 28th and 12th in four different metrics, the league would just add up all those placements and divide the number by four — 16.25 in this case. The two teams with the lowest averages would play for a Mountain West title.
What are the metrics the league uses?
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementBill Connelly's SP+, ESPN Strength of Record (SOR), Faktor Sports' KPI and SportsSource. SP+ and SportsSource are the two predictive metrics; SOR and KPI are results-based, and theoretically more open to movement with singular wins and losses.
If you want to read more about SP+ and see the current rankings, click here; SP+ does not update until all games have been completed.
SOR "reflects (the) chance that an average Top 25 team would have team's record or better, given the schedule," and can be found here.
KPI will be continually updated as Saturday's games play, and can be found here.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementSportSource's metric is proprietary and not publicly available. We'll get to that shortly.
Has this always been the case?
When the Mountain West had divisions, this didn't really happen — all the teams in the divisions played each other, so the league didn't have to go to the computers then.
After the league scrapped divisions in 2023? UNLV, Boise State and San Jose State all tied for first (6-2) in the standings that year; the Rebels and Broncos were selected as the two championship participants based on composite averages from the Colley Matrix, Anderson & Hester, Massey and Wolfe, which were more traditional BCS metrics.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementSo, yes, this has happened before. But this is the first one with the new metrics.
Do other conferences do this?
Yes — the American Conference lists the exact same metrics in its tiebreaking procedures. So if it seems weird or confusing, at least you're not alone.
Well, how do things look for UNM?
Better than if they had lost Friday, that's for sure.
Again, SP+ does not update until all the games are done. And SportsSource is unavailable, so it's tough to get a great feel for what might happen here. But here's how things looked in the available metrics as of last Sunday:
(Note: Let's include UNLV for now just to paint a broader picture.)
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementConnelly SP+ — 43. San Diego State — 54. UNLV — 55. Boise State — 70. New Mexico
ESPN SOR — 42. UNLV — 43. San Diego State — 47. New Mexico — 56. Boise State
KPI — 41. San Diego State — 43. UNLV — 45. Boise State — 54. New Mexico
How did things change in the results-based metrics (SOR and KPI) with UNM's win over SDSU and Boise State's 25-24 win at Utah State on Friday? Here's how it looks as of Saturday afternoon:
ESPN SOR — 41. UNLV — 42. New Mexico — 51. Boise State — 54. San Diego State
KPI — 40. Boise State — 43. UNLV — 44. New Mexico — 49. San Diego State
That's a 5-spot and 10-spot jump for UNM in SOR and KPI, respectively, after beating SDSU. And if you took UNLV out of the picture, that might look like a relatively manageable position for the Lobos.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementBut for UNM, the most likely issue is the predictive metrics. We don't know what SportsSource looks like, but it's a predictive model — it feels safe to say it will be more in line with SP+ than SOR or KPI. And that probably doesn't bode well for the Lobos.
So, how much of a bump could UNM get from its win over SDSU in SP+? Here's how the Lobos' placement changed on a week-to-week basis in Connelly's SP+ Top 766, which includes all Division II and three, NAIA and non-NCAA and NAIA teams:
(Note: The Top 766 will not be the form of SP+ used in determining the Mountain West Championship participants; the league will use the FBS-only rankings. But it's the one readily available way to display how a team's placement in SP+ has and could change on a given week, so that's why it's included here.) — Week 1: 154 (no previous game) — Week 2: 139 (after a 34-17 loss at Michigan) — Week 3: 134 (after a 32-22 win over Idaho State) — Week 4: 123 (after a 34-10 win at UCLA) — Week 5: 135 (after a 38-20 win over New Mexico State)
-Week 6: 93 (after the bye)
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement-Week 7: 95 (after a 35-28 loss at San Jose State)
-Week 8: 100 (after a 41-25 loss at Boise State)
-Week 9: 96 (after a 24-22 win over Nevada)
-Week 10: 86 (after a 33-14 win over Utah State)
-Week 11: 83 (after a 40-35 win at UNLV)
-Week 12: 80 (after the bye)
-Week 13: 80 (after a 20-17 win over Colorado State)
-Week 14: 71 (after a 20-3 win at Air Force)
Even if UNM matches its 9-spot jump last week in SP+ — and I'm not sure that will be the case — that probably won't be enough to catch an SDSU team that lost in double-overtime on the road. Or a Boise State team that eked out a 1-point win over Utah State on the road.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWhy? It's hard to see either program getting punished too much for those losses, at least in the predictive metrics.
So, long story short: It looks better than it did for UNM in the results-based metrics, but they might be left on the outside looking in because of the predictive metrics. Then again, nothing is for certain until it's announced.
Does UNLV winning help UNM?
(Note: UNLV and Nevada played a late game Saturday night.)
This has been a common question in the last 24 hours, and at least when it comes to the metrics, sure. In the results-based metrics, UNM would stand to get a bump by having a road win over a freshly 10-2 UNLV. Wins matter!
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementBut it might be more advantageous to UNM to not have another team to compete against when it goes to the metrics — so a Nevada win could be bigger than it seems. It also might be better if UNLV is in the mix.
Again — we simply don't know.
What other teams could help UNM?
Michigan beating Ohio State would've helped. UCLA over USC, too. Wyoming's game against Hawaii is sneaky big among all the teams in the mix for a title game appearance. And there are teams ahead of UNM that could lose and potentially fall back to help the Lobos make up ground.
In short: A lot of teams could help UNM, and Boise State, SDSU and maybe UNLV. How much, well, we'll find out soon.
When will we know?
The Mountain West Championship participants will be announced Sunday morning, likely between 9 a.m. and 10 a.m.
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