Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actress Predictions: Nominees...

Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner

Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actress custom image with Regina Hall and Teyana Taylor from One Battle After Another, Ariana Grande from Wicked: For Good, and Emily Blunt from The Smashing Machine

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Last year, Zoe Saldaña dominated the award season before winning Best Supporting Actress, but the Oscars 2026 could be a very different year for the category. There are already some wonderful performances challenging to win at the 98th Academy Awards, and I'm thrilled to get to chronicle the race for Screen Rant once more.

Historically, this category almost always goes to someone without an Oscar trophy. There are only five Best Supporting Actress Oscar winners in history who were already Academy Award winners: Shelley Winters in 1965 (won in 1959), Helen Hayes in 1970 (won Best Actress in 1931/1932), Ingrid Bergman in 1974 (won Best Actress in 1944 and 1956), Maggie Smith in 1978 (won Best Actress in 1969), and Diane Wiest in 1994 (won in 1986).

This trend appears likely to continue in 2026, as most of the contenders for Best Supporting Actress have never won an Oscar before, despite being in this industry for years, if not decades. A few are even previous nominees who missed out on a chance to win.

There's also a good mixture of "new names" for the Academy voters to consider, and several strong narratives and campaigns that could shift the standings. Here's the current landscape of Best Supporting Actress, but keep checking back, as I will be updating this as the Oscars season continues to unfold.

Commentary and predictions updated on November 28

The Best Supporting Actress Nomination Frontrunners

The Best Supporting Actress race continues to evolve, and the release of Wicked: For Good means everyone has finally been able to see presumed contender Ariana Grande's return as Glinda. And while the movie may not be as beloved as the first, Grande's performance is arguably even better, with the story allowing her to go to greater depths as an actress.

Rank

Actress

Movie

Ariana Grande

Wicked: For Good

Teyana Taylor

One Battle After Another

Elle Fanning

Sentimental Value

Gwyneth Paltrow

Marty Supreme

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas

Sentimental Value

It is no surprise that Wicked: For Good's release has cemented Grande's place as a legit Oscar contender once again. She's certainly going to get a nomination. After being the presumed runner-up to Zoe Saldaña last year, it will come down to whether the weaker response to Wicked sequel means she can get over the hump and win it all now.

The biggest competition for Grande is undoubtedly Teyana Taylor. Her big, powerful, and memorable turn as Perfidia continues to resonate with people, and she's not been forgotten, picking up Gotham Awards and Astra Film Awards nominations. With One Battle After Another remaining alive in most Oscar categories, Taylor stands to benefit further.

Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas and Elle Fanning in Sentimental Value

Elle Fanning remains at three in this update. Now that the movie is out in theaters, there's more echoing of what ScreenRant's Graeme Guttmann said in his 10/10 Sentimental Value review, stating the actress gets a few "showcase moments" as aspiring star Rachel Kemp.

While I previously questioned if Fanning would stay in or lose ground to her lesser-known Norwegian co-star, Inga Ibsdotter Lilleaas, I'm now of the belief that they'll both get in. Lilleaas slots in at number five after picking up Gotham and Astra nominations. So rather than One Battle After Another snagging two spots in Best Supporting Actress, it may be Sentimental Value.

Gwyneth Paltrow keeps her spot in my predicted top five thanks to the strength of Marty Supreme's presence in awards season so far. She'll have to overcome the aforementioned poor history of Academy Award winners finding success in this category to get her second Oscar over two decades after winning for Shakespeare in Love.

Actresses Still In The Mix

Hailee Steinfeld as Mary in Sinners

By adding both Sentimental Value actresses to the predicted nominee group, Regina Hall slides down to this section. She did snag an Astra nomination to aid her campaign, but it does feel more likely than ever that she could miss out on an Oscar nomination. It's unlikely all six of One Battle After Another's performers are recognized, and she could be one of the ones to be snubbed.

Luckily for her, she's at least still in the mix. Jennifer Lopez (Kiss of a Spider Woman), Kirsten Dunst (Roofman), Rebecca Ferguson (A House of Dynamite), Thomasin McKenzie (The Testament of Ann Lee), and Zoey Deutch (Nouvelle Vague) haven't secured any notable precursor nominations, while the Train Dreams duo of former Oscar nominees Felicity Jones and Kerry Condon also lack support. That leaves us with 11 other performers.

Actress

Movie

Amy Madigan

Weapons

Emily Blunt

The Smashing Machine

Emily Watson

Hamnet

Glenn Close

Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery

Hailee Steinfeld

Sinners

Jamie Lee Curtis

Ella McKay

Laura Dern

Jay Kelly

Nina Hoss

Hedda

Odessa A'zion

Marty Supreme

Regina Hall

One Battle After Another

Wunmi Mosaka

Sinners

Emily Blunt's campaign is on life support after missing out at Gotham and Astra, while Laura Dern, Jamie Lee Curtis, and Emily Watson are still hoping their film's wide releases elevate their standings. The odds of that happening feel low considering how well-positioned many other performances are.

Sinners' female stars Hailee Steinfeld and Wunmi Mosaku could benefit from the film's overall Oscars pedigree. Steinfeld is the former Oscar nominee thanks to True Grit, but Mosaku picked up the Gotham nomination; they both were nominated at Astra.

Odessa A'zio also should not be overlooked, as she did get an Astra nomination, despite Marty Supreme still being a month away from hitting theaters. While Paltrow is the one in the predicted nominee group, there is a world where favor shifts toward A'zio.

Nina Hoss and Glenn Close have also kept some momentum on their side with recognition at Astra. Should Prime Video and Netflix keep pushing Hedda and Wake Up Dead Man hard, either will have a chance of breaking into the Oscars race to try and pull off a surprise win.

The support for Amy Madigan's Weapons performance is still going strong, too. She finally got a notable nomination with Astra, proving that Warner Bros.'s campaign is working. With Madigan also a former nominee for 1985's Twice in a Lifetime, it'd be quite the comeback story if she secures another nomination 40 years later.

Predicted Best Supporting Actress Winner

Glinda (Ariana Grande) looking up in Wicked: For Good

Ariana Grande remains my pick to win Best Supporting Actress at the 2026 Oscars, but my confidence is a bit shaken, admittedly. Wicked: For Good's reception has brought the film's entire Oscar chances into question. And while I have no doubt Grande will secure a nomination, the more tepid response holds her back from being the choice.

The reason I've kept her as the winner comes down to the cumulative work between the two Wicked movies. Rather than this next nomination being a place to only recognize her work in Wicked: For Good, her campaign should embrace how it works in conjunction with the first film. The range she shows throughout both is amazing, heartbreaking, and funny.

She's also secured an Astra nomination, putting her on the board this awards season. Voters will not forget about her Glinda, and with so many months still to come before a winner is crowned, there's a lot of time for Grande to solidify her spot at the top of this category.

This will be a close race to watch as the season develops, though, as who wins between Grande and Taylor at different awards shows could really determine who wins the category at the Oscars 2026.

ScreenRant's additional Oscars predictions:

Oscars 2026 Predictions In All 24 Categories: Nominees & Winners
Oscars 2026 Best Picture Predictions: Nominees & Winner
Oscars 2026 Best Director Predictions: Nominees & Winner
Oscars 2026 Best Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner
Oscars 2026 Best Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner
Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner

Oscars

8/10 Location Los Angeles, CA Dates March 15, 2026 Network ABC Website

https://www.oscars.org/

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The Oscars | Academy Awards

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Julka Julka Julka #EP283608 Member since 2024-11-23 27 Reviews 178 Ratings Following 0 Topics 0 Users Follow Followed 1 Follower View
Best Actress was discussed in the separate article, but in both Female Categories I’ll be rooting for Amanda Seyfriend (she’s a strong contender for Best Actress) and Ariana Grande (I’d have rooted for her last year along with Zoe Saldana who was CLEARLY The Favourite).
2025-10-09 17:18:20 Upvote Downvote Reply Copy