Are the Phillies Mets or Red Sox most likely to make a sentimental overpay

Are the Phillies Mets or Red Sox most likely to make a sentimental overpay originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.

ESPN’s annual survey of MLB executives offered three predictable names when asked which big hitters will return to their teams: Kyle Schwarber,Pete Alonso and Alex Bregman. What mattered far more than the votes was why rival executives believed these players were coming back.

All three are seen as more than producers. They’re viewed as "heartbeat" players, the guys who define a clubhouse, stabilize a fan base and shape a team’s identity. And when that happens, sentiment starts sneaking into negotiations.

So which franchise is the most likely to overpay because of it?

Right now, the Phillies look like the clearest candidate.

Schwarber's influence on Philadelphia’s roster has grown every year. He’s the emotional center of a veteran core, the presence teammates lean on, and the left-handed power bat the lineup is built around. One executive told ESPN the Phillies “need Schwarber more than he needs them,” a rare admission that the relationship itself could push the contract higher than projected. When front offices talk that way, it usually signals the team is willing to absorb the premium.

The Mets aren’t far behind.

Alonso defines the current era of Mets baseball, and he’s the most popular player on the roster. Even as the organization shifts toward a more athletic and contact-driven approach, letting Alonso walk would create a backlash the club may not want to navigate — especially after a year of rumors that tested the relationship with the fan base. However, GM David Stearns was pretty unemotional when shipping off Brandon Nimmo, the longest-tendered Met at the time, last week.

Bregman’s case is a little different.

In Boston, the fit is as much about baseball as leadership. Fenway amplifies his offensive strengths, and teammates credit him for helping stabilize the clubhouse during a transition year. If the Red Sox push higher than projected, it will be because they see irreplaceable value, not because they fear the optics of losing him.

But sentiment isn’t distributed evenly. Among the three clubs, the Phillies appear most vulnerable to paying above the model — because Schwarber is more than a middle-of-the-order slugger. He’s the identity of a contender, and Philadelphia knows it.