Copper Surges to Record After Bullish Forecasts, Trading Turmoil

HG=F +1.69%

(Bloomberg) -- Copper climbed to a fresh record, surging against the backdrop of supply shortfalls, bullish price predictions and trading disruptions on the CME’s Comex Exchange.

Futures on the London Metal Exchange rose as much as 2.5% on Friday to a record $11,210.50 a ton.

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The surge comes after miners, smelters and traders met in Shanghai this week, with discussions focused on a tightening market. Friday also saw a chaotic hours-long halt to trading in copper futures on the CME’s Comex Exchange. LME futures extended their rally as most trading operations resumed early in the US morning.

Copper’s gains also came after Kostas Bintas, the high-profile head of metals at Mercuria Energy Group Ltd., renewed his bullish prediction for prices, warning that a rush to ship metal to the US risks draining the rest of the world’s inventories.

“This is the big one,” he said in an interview at the end of an industry conference in Shanghai organized by the Center for Copper and Mining Studies, or CESCO. “If the world keeps going like this we will be left without copper cathodes in the rest of the world.”

Traders have been ramping up shipments to the US in recent weeks to once again capitalize on a big premium for metal on New York’s Comex exchange, fueled by ongoing uncertainty about the potential for future tariffs.

The surge on Friday is “a response to very bullish headlines coming out of CESCO Shanghai, focusing on the pull of US units into the country creating tightness ex-US,” said Natalie Scott-Gray, senior metals analyst at StoneX Financial Ltd. “This comes against a backdrop in which we already, for year-end, have a perfect storm bull narrative,” she said, citing the impact of tariffs, an improving macroeconomic outlook and supply disruptions.

Copper has found further support in rising expectations of further monetary easing by the US Federal Reserve, which could propel growth and demand in the world’s biggest economy.

Copper rose 2.3% to $11,188 a ton on the London Metal Exchange as of 3:58 p.m. in London. Other base metals were also higher.

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