The knock on the Oregon Ducks going into this past weekend of college football was that they hadn't beaten anyone. Their big win of the year against the Penn State Nittany Lions no longer looks as good as it did, following the firing of James Franklin and the eventual downfall in Happy Valley. Even a win over the Iowa Hawkeyes no longer looks that strong, with Kirk Ferentz's team falling out of the top 25.
So with a 42-27 win over the No. 15 USC Trojans on Saturday night, Oregon was sure to get some deserved respect, right?
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWell, not quite. According to ESPN's Football Power Index, the Ducks actually dropped a spot in the rankings, getting leapfrogged by the Notre Dame Fighting Irish, who beat the Syracuse Orange 70-7 on Saturday night.
Regardless of where the Ducks stand in the FPI, they still are in a great spot at this point in the season, needing a win over Washington this coming week to secure their spot in the College Football Playoff and keep their championship hopes alive. According to the FPI, Oregon has a 97.0% chance of making it to the playoffs.
For those unfamiliar with ESPN’s FPI, it is an index that “relies on past performance on offense and defense, returning and transfer production, and past recruiting data for players on the roster to form a rating.” In essence, it’s ESPN’s way of declaring the top teams in the nation, examining their rosters, schedules, and winning percentages, and ultimately determining where they stand after the season concludes.
In short, it examines Oregon's 2025 schedule and predicts the percentage of wins the Ducks should achieve. Throughout the year, the numbers change based on past performance, injuries, and other variables. While it may not be perfect, it provides a glimpse into how deeper metrics evaluate the team. Let's take a look at what the numbers say going into the Week 14 game vs. Washington.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementOregon Ducks at Washington Huskies — Week 14
Aug 30, 2025; Seattle, Washington, USA; Washington Huskies quarterback Demond Williams Jr. (2) escapes a potential sack by Colorado State Rams linebacker Jacob Ellis (44) during the second quarter at Husky Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Joe Nicholson-Imagn ImagesOregon Percent Chance to Win, per FPI: 75.1%
Previous Percent Chance to Win: 79.7%
Analysis: This was shaping up to be a potential playoff game between Oregon and Washington, with the winner clinching a spot in the College Football Playoff, but the Huskies fell to the Wisconsin Badgers on the road earlier this month, effectively ending any chance of high stakes in this matchup. While it will still be a tough road game in Seattle and a fun renewal of the rivalry, Washington has shown some real weaknesses over the past few weeks.
For more Washington news and analysis, check out UW Huskies Wire!
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementOverall Oregon Ducks Season Outlook
Oregon head coach Dan Lanning leads his team onto the field as the Oregon Ducks host the Montana State Bobcats on Aug. 30, 2025, at Autzen Stadium in Eugene, Oregon.Percent Chance to Win Out: 63.1%
Previous FPI %: 47.4%
Percent Chance to Win Conference: 4.8%
Previous FPI %: 4.4%
Percent Chance to Make College Football Playoff: 97.0%
Previous FPI %: 89.5%
Percent Chance to Make National Championship: 24.0%
Previous FPI %: 19.2%
Percent Chance to Win National Championship: 10.6%
Previous FPI %: 8.8%
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This article originally appeared on Ducks Wire: Oregon Ducks jumped by Notre Dame in ESPN FPI despite win over USC
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