Bowl projections for Tennessee football and impact of Vanderbilt game

Expect Tennessee football to play in a Florida bowl game if it beats Vanderbilt in the regular-season finale on Nov. 29.

Specifically, it could land in the Citrus Bowl (Dec. 31 in Orlando), ReliaQuest Bowl (Dec. 31 in Tampa) or Gator Bowl (Dec. 27 in Jacksonville).

But if the Vols lose to the Commodores, things could become more unpredictable, and the Music City Bowl (Dec. 30 in Nashville) may enter the picture. After that, the Duke’s Mayo Bowl (Jan. 2 in Charlotte) would be a longshot.

In every case, the results of other SEC games will impact UT’s postseason destination.

Tennessee will get its best bowl bid if it beats Vanderbilt and five SEC teams make the College Football Playoff. That means the Vols need Alabama to beat Auburn and Oklahoma to beat LSU. A Texas A&M win over Texas could also help the Vols in some scenarios.

For non-playoff teams, the SEC office tries to serve as matchmaker for its schools and affiliated bowls. Each school submits its preferred bowl games, and the bowls choose their preferred schools. The conference office gets the final say, considering the records and rankings of each team.

The only exception is the Citrus Bowl, which independently gets first choice of non-playoff SEC teams.

No. 18 Tennessee (8-3, 4-3 SEC) plays No. 12 Commodores (9-2, 5-2) on Nov. 29 (3:30 p.m. ET, ESPN) at Neyland Stadium.

Here are the projected bowl scenarios for UT, beginning with those Florida bowls.

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How Tennessee could play in ReliaQuest Bowl

• Tennessee beats Vanderbilt for a 9-3 record.

• Alabama beats Auburn; Oklahoma beats LSU.

• Five SEC teams make CFP.

• How it happens: Citrus Bowl selects Texas, which has never played in that game. Tennessee, as the best non-playoff SEC team, goes to ReliaQuest Bowl.

• Why Vols?: The ReliaQuest Bowl, formerly the Outback Bowl, has wanted the Vols for years. But they haven’t played there since the 2015 season. At 9-3, they could be the best SEC team not in the CFP.

How Tennessee could play in Citrus Bowl

• Tennessee beats Vanderbilt for a 9-3 record.

• Alabama beats Auburn; Oklahoma beats LSU; Texas A&M beats Texas.

• Five SEC teams make CFP.

• How it happens: Citrus Bowl selects Tennessee because it’s the best non-playoff SEC team. It overlooks Texas, which would be 8-4 after a loss to Texas A&M. Remember that the Citrus Bowl can choose any non-playoff SEC team it wants, regardless of record. It tries to a select that team that's enthusiastic about being there, so Texas would be less appealing if it suffered a blowout loss to Texas A&M.

• Why Vols?: In this scenario, Tennessee would be the highest ranked SEC team not in the CFP. Sure, the Vols played in the Citrus Bowl two years ago, but they’re still a coveted team with an enormous fan base.

How Tennessee could play in Gator Bowl

• A Tennessee win or loss to Vanderbilt could yield this outcome along with a specific mix of other games.

• Alabama and/or Oklahoma suffer upset loss to drop out of CFP and into this bowl pool. And in some scenarios, a Texas win over Texas A&M would impact this.

• Four SEC teams make CFP.

• How it happens: Citrus Bowl selects Alabama, Oklahoma or Vanderbilt (with a win over UT). ReliaQuest Bowl gets one of those teams or Texas (with a win over Texas A&M). Tennessee drops to third in line in this bowl pool with an 8-4 or 9-3 record.

• Why Vols?: UT goes to Gator Bowl if it’s third in the pecking order in this non-playoff pool of SEC teams. There are several ways that could happen, but it probably involves an upset or unexpected series of events. Otherwise, the Vols may be too high in the order at 9-3 to go to the Gator Bowl or too low at 8-4 to land there.

How Tennessee could play in Music City Bowl

• Tennessee loses to Vanderbilt for an 8-4 record.

• Alabama and/or Oklahoma suffer upset loss to drop out of CFP and into this bowl pool. And in some scenarios, a Texas win over Texas A&M would impact this.

• Four or five SEC teams make CFP.

• How it happens: The best non-playoff SEC team goes to the Citrus Bowl, perhaps Vanderbilt (if it beats Tennessee), Alabama (if it loses to Auburn) or Oklahoma (if it loses to LSU). Then the ReliaQuest Bowl and Gator Bowl choose 8-4 teams other than Tennessee, perhaps Texas, LSU or Missouri in this scenario.

• Why Vols?: With a loss to Vanderbilt, UT would be among a few 8-4 teams jockeying for the same bowls. Missouri played in the Music City Bowl a year ago, so it wouldn’t go there again. The Music City Bowl would like to host Tennessee if it fell to that position. And if given the choice between the Music City Bowl and Duke’s Mayo Bowl, the Vols would prefer Nashville on Dec. 30 rather than Charlotte on Jan. 2, the day the transfer portal opens.

How Tennessee could play in Duke’s Mayo Bowl

• Tennessee loses to Vanderbilt for an 8-4 record.

• Alabama and Oklahoma suffer upset losses to drop out of CFP and into this bowl pool.

• Four SEC teams make CFP, including Vanderbilt.

• How it happens: Upsets drop teams out of the CFP and into this pool of non-playoff SEC bowl teams, pushing Tennessee down in the pecking order. And a loss to Vanderbilt pushes UT down further. All three Florida bowls are filled with recent playoff contenders, and the Music City Bowl gets an unexpected team like an 8-4 Texas.

• Why Vols?: This is the least likely of these bowl scenarios because it would involve multiple upsets and the Music City Bowl passing on the Vols. But in a season of unpredictable outcomes, this possibility is on the table. If UT fell to the Duke’s Mayo Bowl, then the Texas Bowl (Dec. 27 in Houston) would also be considered.

Adam Sparks is the Tennessee football beat reporter. Email [email protected]. X, formerly known as Twitter@AdamSparks. Support strong local journalism by subscribing at knoxnews.com/subscribe.

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This article originally appeared on Knoxville News Sentinel: Tennessee football bowl projections and impact of Vanderbilt game