Oscars 2026 Best Picture Predictions
By
Cooper Hood
Updated
1 minute ago
Cooper Hood is the Associate Editor for all new movie releases, in theaters and on streaming. In addition to writing articles about these titles and upcoming releases, he also oversees content planning for each, ensuring that ScreenRant continues to cover major releases for months after their release.
He has written various reviews for ScreenRant that appear on Rotten Tomatoes, coordinated Oscars and San Diego Comic-Con coverage, appeared on CNN to talk about Mission: Impossible - The Final Reckoning, and done select interviews with talent over the years.
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Awards season is upon us, and so it's my pleasure to bring you ScreenRant's Best Picture predictions for the Oscars 2026. I've been handling these prediction pieces for the last few years, keeping a close eye on the state of the race, and that's no different as we look for what Academy voters will deem the best movies of 2025.
For most of the year, Best Picture looked to be wide open, just waiting for a movie to burst onto the scene that could capture the attention of everyone. Sinners did that early in the year, provoking more conversations about how horror deserves to be more widely recognized by the Academy.
Then, festival debuts for Hamnet and Sentimental Value put them more squarely in the race before the debut of Paul Thomas Anderson's One Battle After Another in theaters (after skipping the festival circuit) helped it steal all the attention. The latter has remained a fixture in positive awards discussions. And now that Wicked: For Good, Sentimental Value, Frankenstein, and Train Dreams have come out, the race is (seemingly) starting to solidify.
We've still got a few months to go until the Academy officially announces the 10 movie lineup of Best Picture nominees on January 22, 2026. This is how I see things at this point, but keep checking back, as I will be updating this as the Oscars season continues to unfold.
Commentary and predictions updated on November 26
The Best Picture Nomination Frontrunners
Leonardo DiCaprio drives a car in One Battle After AnotherWarner Bros. / Courtesy Everett Collection
Ahead of the Golden Globes nominations on December 8, here are my current Oscars 2026 Best Picture nominations predictions, factoring in the response to the films so far, their festival premieres, and general momentum.
Rank
Movie
Release Date
Distributor
1)
Hamnet
December 12, 2025
Focus Features
2)
One Battle After Another
September 26, 2025
Warner Bros.
3)
Sinners
April 18, 2025
Warner Bros.
4)
Marty Supreme
December 25, 2025
A24
5)
Sentimental Value
November 7, 2025
Neon
6)
Frankenstein
November 7, 2025
Netflix
7)
It Was Just an Accident
October 15, 2025
Neon
8)
Wicked: For Good
November 21, 2025
Universal Pictures
9)
Avatar: Fire and Ash
December 19, 2025
20th Century Studios
10)
Train Dreams
November 21, 2025
Netflix
There are no new entries to the predicted lineup in this update, but the order has shifted around a bit. Hamnet, One Battle After Another, and Sinners remain locked at the top. They've all racked up more award nominations through major precursors like the Gotham Awards and Astra Film Awards.
Meanwhile, Marty Supreme moves up a spot. Josh Safdie and Timothée Chalamet's A24 movie has done an excellent job of creating hype around it, and with the high that it's left just about everyone who has seen it already, there's a chance it wins the whole thing.
Sentimental Value drops one spot, but remains in the top five, as the festival hype from its Cannes debut and Grand Prix win has waned a bit. Joachim Trier's movie still figures to be a Best Picture nominee and collect nominations elsewhere, but its momentum has faded a bit, potentially knocking it out of having a true contending status.
Guillermo del Toro's Frankenstein also jumps up from seven to six, with it maybe even deserving to be in the fifth slot right now. Being the TIFF runner-up for the People's Choice Award has been indicative of the swell of support that's come its way recently. People love the film, performances, and craftsmanship, and it'd be a real surprise if it falls out of the race now.
It Was Just an Accident moves up to seventh here, as Neon's Palme d'Or-winning international feature keeps performing well, including an Astra Film Awards nomination for Best Picture. Jafar Panahi is a potential Best Director nominee, and the movie will certainly contend for Best International Feature too, giving it a strong resume to enter the Oscars' biggest category.
Elphaba (Cynthia Erivo) crying as she hugs Glinda (Ariana Grande) in Wicked: For GoodImage via Universal
The biggest mover of the list is Wicked: For Good, dropping from 6 to 8. The sequel has not been as warmly received as the first movie, hurting its standing for the 2026 Oscars. In fact, I've seen some pundits knock it out of the top 10 altogether.
Even though Wicked: For Good isn't as good as the original, it still figures to rack up somewhere close to double-digit nominations through its performances, music, and below-the-line work. That would give it a strong position to get in Best Picture, even if its odds of winning would be quite low.
The potential slide of Wicked's sequel is likely good news for Avatar: Fire and Ash, the other big blockbuster sequel hoping to be in the race. I've bumped it up one spot as buzz has started to pick up about what James Cameron has delivered. So long as the director delivers the goods narratively and visually once again, could it even become a legit contender to win?
Rounding out the updated top 10 is Train Dreams, which was at 9 previously. The movie has surprisingly created quite a riff online, proving to be more divisive than the festival praise suggested. It's unclear how Academy voters will feel, but Netflix's quieter drama has certainly lost some of the stronger footing it appeared to be securing.
Movies Still In The Mix
Michelle Fuller (Emma Stone) smiling at her corporate office in Bugonia©Focus Features/Courtesy Everett Collection
Those 10 movies are far from the only titles that are in contention for Best Picture. There is a wide pack of other films with varying levels of opportunities to enter the race and move up into the previous section, knocking others down to here.
With a lack of momentum following releases that have come and gone, I've taken A House of Dynamite, Father Mother Sister Brother, Springsteen: Deliver Me From Nowhere, and Nouvelle Vague out, as they don't appear to really have much of a chance. Similarly, Weapons feels like too big a long shot to get in based on how many other films have stayed firmly alive, leaving us with 13 titles.
Movie
Release Date
Distributor
Bugonia
October 31, 2025
Focus Features
Ella McCay
December 12, 2025
20th Century Studios
F1: The Movie
June 27, 2025
Apple Studios
If I Had Legs I'd Kick You
October 10, 2025
A24
Is This Thing On?
December 19, 2025
Searchlight Pictures
Jay Kelly
December 5, 2025
Netflix
No Other Choice
TBD
Neon
The Secret Agent
November 26, 2025
Neon
The Smashing Machine
October 3, 2025
A24
Song Sung Blue
December 25, 2025
Focus Features
The Testament of Ann Lee
December 25, 2025
Searchlight Pictures
The Voice of Hind Rajab
TBD
TBD
Wake Up Dead Man: A Knives Out Mystery
December 12, 2025
Neflix
Yorgos Lanthimos' Bugonia and Noah Baumbach's Jay Kelly are two of the biggest omissions from my current predictions. Both directors have a great history with the Oscars, each having Best Picture-nominated movies: The Favourite and Poor Things for Lanthimos; Marriage Story for Baumbach, and critics have really liked each film.
International contenders The Secret Agent, No Other Choice, and The Voice of Hind Rajab remain in the mix, as they've each continued to position themselves for Best International Feature Film, and Academy voters proved last year that multiple nominees from this category can wind up in Best Picture.
Will Arnett talking on a mic in Is This Thing On?
Benny Safdie's The Smashing Machine starring Dwayne Johnson and Emily Blunt is on the verge of tapping out of this race if things don't improve soon it seems. Meanwhile, Bradley Cooper's Is This Thing On? continues to play well. Hugh Jackman and Kate Hudson's Song Sung Blue and James L. Brooks' Ella McCay are still hoping to make a splash to end the year in a risky play.
I'm keeping The Testament of Ann Lee and If I Had Legs, I'd Kick You in the mix based on the strength of their lead performances, who each could be Best Actress nominees and prop up the films overall, even if those chances are a bit lower. Wake Up Dead Man really needs to pop now that its out in theaters to give itself a fighting chance.
Interestingly, F1: The Movie is a title that's gained some support as of late. Perhaps it will amount to nothing, but the power of Apple, Brad Pitt, Joseph Kosinski, and Jerry Bruckheimer could be enough for it to crash the party depending on the rest of awards season goes.
Predicted Best Picture Winner
Jessie Buckley as Agnes in Hamnet
At this moment, Best Picture really feels like a two-horse race: Hamnet vs. One Battle After Another — with Sinners and Marty Supreme lurking as the stealth winner. I still haven't seen Zhao's loosely true story adaptation of William Shakespeare's love life, but that's not holding me back from picking it as the winner.
Not picking One Battle After Another goes against the consensus right now, as PTA's film has presumably been the frontrunner for many for over a month now. All the praise that's gone its way is certainly warranted, but I do have a sense that Hamnet remains strongly positioned to win at the Oscars.
This is the movie that won TIFF's People's Choice Award. The winner of that award has got a Best Picture nomination 22 times. Those nominations have resulted in six wins, including Zhao's last film, Nomadland. It's repeatedly proven to be an audience favorite, winning awards at multiple festivals.
Rather than continuing to lose ground to One Battle After Another, Zhao's film has remained in the heat of contention. And as more and more people get a chance to see it, I believe the support will keep on growing. Zhao's direction, the stellar performances from the cast, and the technical aspects should all add to the film's resume.
After all, the Academy has shown plenty of favor toward Zhao. Her last feature also won the People's Choice Award at TIFF before winning Best Picture, Best Director, and Best Actress. Hamnet could follow a similar route this awards season.
This race is far from over, and perhaps I'm even being a bit too stubborn in coming off this prediction and falling into line with the majority of Oscar pundits and predictions. Once more precursors take place, perhaps it will be time for One Battle After Another to take the top spot. Until then, I'm sticking with Hamnet as the predicted Best Picture winner for the Oscars 2026
ScreenRant's additional Oscars predictions:
- Oscars 2026 Predictions In All 24 Categories: Nominees & Winners
- Oscars 2026 Best Director Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actor Predictions: Nominees & Winner
- Oscars 2026 Best Supporting Actress Predictions: Nominees & Winner
Oscars
8/10
Location
Los Angeles, CA
Dates
March 15, 2026
Network
ABC
Website
https://www.oscars.org/
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