Fantasy Football: Rookie QBs Shedeur Sanders, Cam Ward show out among bold calls — Tale of the Take, Week 13

Week 12’s Tale of the Take treated us pretty well. Jonathan Taylor was never set up to be an RB1 against the Chiefs and they held him under 100 yards just like we laid out. The Philly receivers did their job versus Dallas but the Saquon Barkley call was on point. He did not live up to expectations. Derrick Henry did not run wild on the Jets yet he still punched in two touchdowns. The Lions duo was a mixed bag with Amon-Ra St. Brown finishing as the WR3 overall while Jameson Williams didn’t show up. Drake Maye did not get to QB1 but he still delivered a top-12 week.

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Now, it is Week 13 and for most of you the fantasy football playoffs are a few weeks away. No more playing around. Matchups matter. Usage matters. The tale matters. Let’s dive in.

Justin Jefferson Struggles Continue in Seattle

The Tale: This is not the spot where Justin Jefferson suddenly gets right. Over the last month, Seattle has turned into a nightmare for opposing passing attacks, allowing just 175 passing yards per game, the fifth-lowest mark in the NFL. In that same span, opponents have one of the lowest rates of turning pass attempts into first downs or touchdowns against this secondary, sitting seventh in that metric. Big plays have been erased, too. The Seahawks have allowed only 12 explosive passing gains over the last month, fourth-fewest in the league. On the ground, they are closer to average at 117 rushing yards allowed per game, but through the air this is a defense that has tightened every screw.

That is a brutal environment for a Minnesota offense still figuring itself out with a young quarterback. This is not about burying J.J. McCarthy, but his learning curve has made life harder on Jefferson than we are used to seeing. The volume is still there. Jefferson leads the position in snap rate, sits top 15 in routes, top 10 in targets and top 10 in yards per game at 72. He has a 29% target share. The role is exactly what you want from an alpha wide receiver.

The problem is everything around that role. Game scripts have gone sideways. The quality of the looks has dipped. Drives stall before Jefferson’s volume can truly matter. He has only two receiving touchdowns with 795 yards in 11 games and is tracking toward the worst statistical season of his career. In half-PPR he sits at 11.1 points per game, just the WR15. Now, the Vikings walk into Seattle as a road underdog by 10.5 points, tied for the largest spread on the slate. Oddsmakers are not expecting Minnesota to put up much of a fight through the air.

The Take: Justin Jefferson once again delivers volume without a classic ceiling game, settling in as a disappointing non-elite option for Week 13 fantasy lineups.

Michael Wilson Keeps Cooking vs. Bucs

The Tale: Michael Wilson walks into a dream spot. Over the last month, no defense in the league has bled more passing yards than Tampa Bay, sitting dead last at 32nd in opponent passing yards per game. This is the definition of a pass funnel. Through the air, it is all green lights. In PPR scoring, the Buccaneers are second-to-last in opponent receiving fantasy points per game, allowing 64 per week to pass-catchers. Narrow that down to just wideouts and they are giving up 45 PPR points per game over this span. Those numbers leave Tampa Bay as one of the softest wide receiver matchups on the slate.

The coverage issues do not stop at volume. Tampa Bay has surrendered 12 explosive plays to the wide receiver position over the last month, a bottom-12 mark that lines up perfectly with Wilson’s ability to win down the field and in the intermediate areas. They have been far more respectable on the ground, allowing 110 rushing yards per game over this sample with only five runs of 10-plus yards, second only to Denver in limiting explosive rushes. That tilt forces opponents to the air where this secondary simply has not held up.

Now, pair that with what Jacoby Brissett is doing. Over the last three weeks, he has nearly hit 150 pass attempts, an absurd volume profile for any quarterback. Arizona is an aggressive offense with nothing to lose going on the road to Tampa Bay. There is real shootout potential here especially if the game tilts into negative script. Trey McBride will get his as the engine of the passing game and Greg Dortch has some sneaky touchdown equity in deep desperation spots, but Wilson is the perimeter alpha who benefits most from this exact defensive profile.

The Take: Michael Wilson capitalizes on Tampa Bay’s pass funnel and delivers a true wide receiver 1 week with splash plays and scoring upside.

De’Von Achane Boom Week vs. Saints

The Tale: De’Von Achane is set up to go nuclear at home against the New Orleans Saints. Last week, this defense just got pushed around by Atlanta in a 24-10 loss. The box score looks tame for Bijan Robinson with 70 rushing yards but he averaged 5.0 yards per carry. Tyler Allgeier chipped in 40 more and the Falcons as a team ran for 121 yards. That came while starting Kirk Cousins, who, at this age and stage of his career, is not exactly lighting it up.

Now, the Saints walk into Miami likely without Alvin Kamara and with a stripped-down receiver room after trading away Rashid Shaheed. Rookie quarterback Tyler Shough was sacked five times by Atlanta and now has to deal with a Dolphins team fresh off its bye. Miami will be rested and Mike McDaniel will have had extra time to cook up answers. He comes from the Kyle Shanahan tree of coaching, the same offensive family Sean McVay and the Rams come from.

We just saw what that tree can do to this Saints defense when it ran into the Rams a few weeks ago. Matthew Stafford hung four touchdowns on New Orleans. Kyren Williams cleared 100 rushing yards with a score. Blake Corum was around 60 yards. Puka Nacua found the end zone, Davante Adams scored twice and Tyler Higbee found the box. That kind of dismantling is exactly the type of script that favors Achane.

The last time we saw Achane on the field, he stacked back-to-back 100-yard rushing games, back-to-back contests with over 20 carries and back-to-back games with more than five receptions. He is the ideal back for this offense. Miami wants to get the ball out fast and into space and Achane is the answer. Jaylen Waddle and Ollie Gordon II will get theirs, but this matchup screams a featured Achane game with Miami favored by 6 points and playing with tempo against an overmatched opponent.

The Take: De’Von Achane crushes the Saints and delivers RB1 numbers with another explosive multi-score performance.

Shedeur Sanders’ First Statement Game

The Tale: I am betting Shedeur Sanders finds the end zone more than once in his home debut against San Francisco. On the surface, it looks like a brutal draw. The 49ers are a brand name defense. They are coming off a win. Yet, last week’s performance against Carolina was anything but clean. Brock Purdy tossed three interceptions. Bryce Young threw two picks. Christian McCaffrey averaged only 3.0 yards per carry but still led the team in rushing and finished second in receiving. San Francisco escaped with the result but did not look like an untouchable unit.

Now, they travel to Cleveland to face a Browns defense that is playing with its hair on fire. Over the last month, Cleveland has allowed only 417 total passing yards across three games. The Browns rank second in yards allowed per game in that span and are tied for first with just eight explosive pass plays surrendered. That is the environment Purdy walks into. On the other side, Shedeur gets a 49ers secondary that has quietly been one of the most generous pass defenses in football. Over this same month-long span, San Francisco is second-to-last in passing yards allowed at 266 per game. Opponents are completing 70.5% of their passes, the third-highest rate in the league, and the 49ers sit bottom 12 in percentage of attempts that turn into first downs or touchdowns.

From a fantasy lens it is even more stark. San Francisco has allowed the most PPR-receiving production in the NFL over the last month at 68.5 points per game. Cleveland is on the other extreme at 38.4, near the stingiest in the league. One passing environment is a minefield. The other is a launchpad. Sanders still has to navigate pressure and tight windows but the matchup tilts volume and efficiency in his favor.

The Take: Shedeur Sanders rewards the Browns in his home debut, stacking his first multi-touchdown game.

Cam Ward Stays Hot vs. Jacksonville

The Tale: This sets up as the week Cam Ward proves last Sunday was no fluke and stacks another top-12 performance at home against Jacksonville. The Jaguars have turned into a pure pass funnel over the last month. They are giving up only 71 rushing yards per game, tied for the second-fewest in the league. Teams have stopped trying to grind out yards on the ground and are just dropping back. Opponents have a 73.2% dropback rate against Jacksonville in this span, the highest mark in the NFL. Over that same stretch, the Jags have allowed 920 passing yards, sixth-worst in raw yardage and 13th-worst in passing yards per game. You can move the ball through the air if you commit to it.

The other piece is Trevor Lawrence. He is helping create extra volume. Last week against Arizona, he threw three interceptions and lost a fumble that was taken back for a touchdown. Four turnovers from the opposing quarterback on a team that already funnels opponents to the pass is exactly how you build a script where Ward is, once again, asked to put the offense on his shoulders.

We just saw what that looks like. Against a tough Seattle defense, the Titans let Ward spin it 42 times. The run game stalled so he became the engine. He led Tennessee in rushing, scored on the ground and through the air, and finished with 256 passing yards, one passing touchdown and no interceptions despite taking four sacks. It was his best game of the season and it showed up in the box score with a QB4 finish.

He did it while distributing the ball to Gunnar Helm, Chimere Dike and Xavier Restrepo, plus the backs underneath. The matchup points toward another high-volume outing and Ward has already shown he can cash that volume into fantasy production.

The Take: Cam Ward backs up last week’s QB4 outing with his second straight top-12 finish against Jacksonville.