Week 14 college football best bets, odds, picks: My best bets for Week 14, including an Ohio State-Michigan play

Rivalry week delivers chaos, inflated emotions, and — if you’re lucky — edges in the betting market.

Several matchups this weekend present exactly that: teams playing faster than they should, teams missing key personnel, and teams stepping into pressure cookers they aren’t built to handle. We’ve dug into tempo, injury reports, matchup efficiency and recent form to shape a three-play card headlined by Ohio State-Michigan.

Let’s jump in.

All odds courtesy of BetMGM.

Air Force Falcons (-2.5, 45.5) at Colorado State Rams

Colorado State crashed hard last week in an ugly 49-21 blowout loss to Boise State, and somehow the situation got even worse. Their backup quarterback, who replaced the injured starter, earned himself a suspension after spitting in a defender’s face. With the starter still dealing with a foot issue, CSU could be down to a converted receiver under center.

With this potential quarterback headache looming, the betting market has adjusted by making Colorado State an underdog on a very low total. Though the injury has remained a public question mark, starting QB Jackson Brousseau was seen practicing early this week and I’m willing to buy into the idea that he comes back for this Friday matchup at home.

Bet: Over 45 (-110)

Texas Tech Red Raiders (-23.5, 53.5) at West Virginia Mountaineers

West Virginia has been one of the most entertaining teams in college football simply because it refuses to slow down. The Mountaineers operate at one of the fastest paces in the nation, and with tempo comes possessions — a lot of them.

Last week they nearly upset a heavily favored Arizona State team, but don’t let that result fool you. That offensive performance was built on two explosive plays of 70-plus yards, not sustained efficiency. You need rhythm to compete with a disciplined team like Texas Tech, and West Virginia just hasn’t shown the ability to create that without fireworks.

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Texas Tech, meanwhile, is the type of opponent that punishes defenses that can’t get lined up. And when the Mountaineers refuse to take a breath between snaps, the Red Raiders should find plenty of scoring opportunities of their own.

With West Virginia’s pace creating a surplus of drives and their defense lacking the depth to survive long stretches, there should be plenty of possessions to get over this number.

Bet: Over 53.5 (-115)

Ohio State Buckeyes (-10, 44.5) at Michigan Wolverines

Welcome to the most important game of the weekend.

Ohio State brings the No. 1 defense in the country into Ann Arbor, a unit that’s been suffocating opponents from the jump. Their front four is the best Michigan has faced all season, and with the Wolverines’ RB room battered (Justice Haynes out, Jordan Marshall hobbled), Michigan will be forced into long-yardage situations far more often than they’d like.

Michigan typically beats the Buckeyes by running downhill and controlling the tempo. This year? That approach plays directly into Ohio State’s strength. Expect Michigan to bleed clock just by trying to stay ahead of the chains.

On the other side, Ohio State’s offense is elite but not at full strength. Jeremiah Smith isn’t 100% but is expected to go and Carnell Tate’s status is still up in the air. That’s led the Buckeyes to lean heavily on the run, something they’ve quietly done at a top-15 clip since Nov. 1. Michigan’s defense holds up particularly well against the run, meaning Ohio State will also be grinding out long, several-play drives rather than the explosive ones.

Add in two strong red-zone defenses, two freshman quarterbacks in their biggest moments yet and the emotional weight of a rivalry that rarely features loose play calling. This has “physical, methodical and low scoring” written all over it.

Bet: Under 44.5 (-115)