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A special election next month could give Democrats another unexpected boost
Eric GarciaWashington, DCWednesday 26 November 2025 15:50 GMTComments
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A new poll shows that Democrats have a legitimate shot at flipping a deep-red congressional district in the heart of the South — and Republicans have now begun pouring money into it.
Emerson College and The Hill conducted a poll for the special election in Tennessee’s 7th district, which takes place on Tuesday.
Republican Matt Van Epps has a slight lead at 48 percent, only two points ahead of Democratic state legislator Aftyn Behn, whom 46 percent of voters support.
“The special election in Tennessee’s 7th District will come down to what groups are motivated to turnout on election day, and who stays home,” Spencer Kimball of Emerson said in a statement.
The number is stunning considering that President Donald Trump won the district by 22 points in 2024. If Democrats flip the seat, it would lower the number of Republicans in the conference to just 218, the exact number needed for a majority in the House of Representatives.
And that comes before Rep. Marjorie Taylor Greene exits the House on January 5, which would lower the number of Republicans to 217. And Democrats will pick up an additional seat in Texas when the 18th district holds a special election in January and will likely hold New Jersey’s 11th district during the special election in April to replace Gov.-elect Mikie Sherrill.
open image in galleryDemocratic state legislator Aftyn Behn is in a neck-and-neck race against Republican Matt Van Epps. (Copyright 2024 The Associated Press. All rights reserved)Democrats hope to pull off a stunner race in the district as they have won or significantly overperformed in races across the country.
In November, Sherrill outperformed polling expectations in her race for governor and won by double digits while Abigail Spanberger won the governorship in Virginia by 15 points and won a supermajority in the state legislature. In August, Democrats flipped a Republican-held seat in Iowa’s state legislature, breaking the GOP’s supermajority.
Republicans are spending heavily in the Nashville-area district to keep it red.
On Tuesday, Trump offered an enthusiastic backing of Van Epps in a rare post on X.
“I am asking all America First Patriots in Tennessee’s 7th Congressional District, who haven’t voted yet, to please GET OUT AND VOTE for MAGA Warrior Matt Van Epps, tomorrow, November 26th, the last day to vote early in person,” he said. “You can win this Election for Matt! PLEASE VOTE FOR MATT VAN EPPS, who has my Complete and Total Endorsement.”
But the same poll showed Trump slightly underwater in the 7th district, as 47 percent of voters there approve of him and 49 percent disapprove.
open image in galleryPresident Donald Trump has thrown his support behind Republican Matt Van Epps in the 7th district. But the new poll shows him slightly underwater in the Nashville district. (Reuters)“President Trump’s approval rating is a stark reversal from last November, when he carried the district by 22 points. The decline is driven by independents, among whom 59% disapprove and just 34% approve,” Kimball said in his statement.
Both Democrats and Republicans have dumped money into the district. House Majority PAC, the Democrats main spending outlet, has reserved $515,000 worth of ads this week while Behn’s campaign has reserved $214,000 worth of ads, according to AdImpact, which tracks campaign spending. By contrast, MAGA Inc. the pro-Trump super PAC, has reserved $40,000 worth of ads, according to AdImpact.
Vice President Kamala Harris recently visited Tennessee at Fisk University, a historically Black college, and met with volunteers.
Republicans have also sought to paint Behn as out of touch, specifically highlighting an old podcast where she said about Nashville, “I hate this city, I hate the bachelorettes, I hate the pedal taverns, I hate country music. I hate all the things that make Nashville apparently an ‘it city.’”
But Behn defended herself.
“You’re talking to someone who has cried no less than 10 times in the Country Music Hall of Fame,” she said in a video on X.
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