Ravens' Playoff Chances: An NFL Simulation Deep Dive with The Athletic

NFL seasons are a marathon and not a sprint. John Harbaugh's team has battled injuries and inconsistency through the first eight weeks. Still, John Harbaugh's team is now 6-5 on the season with a huge matchup against Cincinnati on Thanksgiving night. Last Sunday's contest began a three-game home stretch (also Bengals on Thanksgiving Night & Steelers on Dec. 7) in Baltimore, where the Ravens stand tied with the 6-5 Pittsburgh in the AFC North standings.

With the help of Austin Mock, The Athletic has launched its NFL Playoff Simulator, powered by my NFL Projection Model. You’ll get results from my model on how likely each team is to make the playoffs or to win the Super Bowl based on 100,000 simulations, but the NFL Playoff Simulator doesn’t stop there. This tool is the industry standard for determining the exact impact of each regular-season game on a team’s postseason chances.

One of the standout features of Mock's simulator is its flexibility. Fans can input specific game results to see how they influence playoff probabilities. This capability means that every game can feel like a playoff game, especially for teams fighting for their postseason lives. For example, when discussing the Baltimore Ravens, Mock highlighted their 86% chance of making the playoffs, underscoring the importance of upcoming matchups against division rivals like the Steelers and Bengals.

(Four thousand simulations are run for each scenario, but every click of the “Run more simulations” button underneath the updated percentage on the right side pushes through another 4,000 simulations. If you want a bigger sample size for your longer-shot scenarios — such as the Jets winning out — that’s how you can achieve it.)

Mock's reasoning for 100,000 simulators

"The 100,000 really gets those tiny, tiny use cases. know, the Ravens play the Bengals this week with Joe Burrow coming back. I only have them at like 3 % right now to make the playoffs. The Bengals maybe if it's only 10,000, that number might go down to like 2 % or something. So you get the little it's edge cases when you get to that big of a number, but it's getting those crazy comeback years, you know, where a team might win Eight out of their last nine or something like that to make the playoffs. So the big number is able to hit out that small sample and get those, I guess, very unlikely teams more often, the ones you would not expect."

AFC Contenders: The Ravens and Patriots

The conversation naturally turned to the AFC race, particularly the Ravens, who have surged in the standings. Mock noted that despite Lamar Jackson's health concerns, "the Ravens have a solid chance of securing a playoff spot thanks to their recent performances and the struggles of other teams in their division. With key games approaching, Mock emphasized that a win over key rivals could lock up the division for Baltimore."

Who is the best in AFC

The New England Patriots are also in the mix, standing firm with a 10-2 record and a significant chance of clinching a first-round bye. Mock pointed out the challenges faced by other AFC teams, such as the Chiefs and Bills, which may elevate the Patriots' chances as they continue to dominate the conference.

Key takeaways include:

The Ravens and Patriots are strong contenders in the AFC.

The importance of data-driven analysis in predicting playoff outcomes.

This article originally appeared on Ravens Wire: AFC playoff picture entering Week 13: Ravens projected to earn No. 4 seed