By Brendan ColeShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberVolodymyr Zelensky may soon be in Washington to finalize a peace deal brokered by the Trump administration but with details still to be worked out, pressure is building on the Ukrainian president to agree to the U.S.-led plan to end the war
A U.S. official told CBS News that Ukraine's government had "agreed to a peace deal" and Ukraine’s national security adviser Rustem Umerov had said that a common understanding on a proposal had been reached, without providing further details.
As of Wednesday afternoon, there was no immediate reaction from Russia, whose officials met with U.S. Army Secretary Dan Driscoll in Abu Dhabi, according to reports, and it is unclear what Zelensky could be asked to sign off on.
It follows days of fraught diplomacy in which a leaked 28-point U.S. plan condemned as forcing Kyiv to make unacceptable concessions prompted a European variant and then a whittled-down 19-point version.
But there are question marks over what is in the proposed deal and over continued U.S. support for Kyiv if it is rejected. Newsweek summarizes some of the tough factors that Zelensky has to consider as he weighs up a prospective deal.
“The Ukrainian President is under extreme pressure this November,” Viktor Kovalenko, a Ukrainian analyst who produces the Ukraine Decoded Substack, told Newsweek.
...U.S. Deadline
Trump initially said Kyiv must accept a U.S.-drafted peace plan by the time Americans celebrated Thanksgiving, signaling that this was not met, military and intelligence support critical for the fight against Russian aggression could be scaled back. This deadline was reiterated by a U.S. official who said the Trump administration wanted Ukraine to sign on to the basic terms by Thursday.
Given the fluidity of Trump’s previous deadlines, such as the 24-hour one he gave to end the war in Ukraine, which was extended to 50 days, the U.S. president’s hint that this timeframe could be extended if negotiations were progressing was less surprising to Kyiv’s allies than the terms of the initial 28-point plan proposed.
“For me, it was expected that Zelensky would swiftly agree to the US-Russia proposal by the November 27 deadline," Kovalenko told Newsweek. “In recent months, I saw signals from Kyiv about its readiness to make more concessions than expected, plus, there are always ways to get around sensitive issues like territories.”
Initial Terms Favor Russia
That first 28-point version, drawn up by Kirill Dmitriev, Vladimir Putin’s envoy, alongside Trump’s representative Steve Witkoff, was condemned by European leaders, although not Zelensky directly, for proposing, among other things, that Ukraine hand over territory to Russia, limit the size of its army and not pursue Moscow for alleged war crimes.
A counterproposal drafted by France, Germany, and the United Kingdom within the backdrop of talks between U.S. and Ukrainian officials in Geneva, was followed by a revised deal, which is expected to modify some of Russia’s maximalist demands, particularly regarding territorial recognition.
The original 28-point proposal had also drawn criticism from some Russian officials and ultranationalists, who viewed it as too lenient and inconsistent with their broader goal of achieving a full Russian victory in Ukraine.
“The updated plan is still likely to face strong resistance from Moscow, Richard Gardiner, senior analyst, strategic intelligence, at corporate intelligence and cyber security consultancy S-RM told Newsweek, ”a pared-back version seen as more favorable to Ukraine is unlikely to be received positively by the Kremlin.”
...Threat of Losing U.S. Support
When given the Trump deadline, Zelensky said Ukraine faced a choice between “losing dignity or losing a key partner" and as the bigger donor of military aid to Kyiv, Washington’s military assistance has been critical in the fight against Russian aggression.
“The Americans, for better or worse, particularly on these long-range strikes into Russia, are doing everything but pulling the trigger,” Justin Logan, director of defense and foreign policy studies at the Cato Institute, told Newsweek, referring to the weapons, targeting and reconnaissance led by the U.S.
“If that goes away, suddenly you're losing one of the most powerful weapons you possess” he said, ”so that's one other layer of pressure on Zelensky.”
European Allies Are Split
On the same day as Zelensky described how his country faced “one of the most difficult moments in our history,” the leaders of Germany, France and the U.K. assured him of their continued support, regardless of what happens with the U.S. However, the revelation of the 28-point plan caught European leaders off guard and highlighted how much they have been sidelined in the process of solving the war destabilizing the continent.
Ukraine’s European allies, and Canada, outstripped the U.S. as Ukraine’s main suppliers earlier in the year, but the loss of US intelligence sharing and key weapons systems, including air defenses and replacements for existing U.S.-supplied equipment, would be more difficult for European partners to cover, Gardiner, from S-RM, said.
“Ukraine’s ability to sustain the fight would also depend on whether Washington restricts European states from providing U.S.-made weapons or support, which would leave Kyiv more vulnerable if U.S. pressure extends to third countries," Gardiner told Newsweek.
Meanwhile, Logan, from Cato, told Newsweek, “Zelensky has a tough decision in the sense that Europeans talk a good game, but they have very few levers that could replace the United States.”
Domestic Political Pressure
As if he did not have enough on his plate, Zelensky is also facing a corruption scandal which has ensnared his close allies, even though the Ukrainian president himself has not been accused of any wrongdoing.
Zelensky’s associate Timur Mindich and businessman Oleksandr Tsukerman, are implicated in a $100 million embezzlement scandal centered on the state-owned nuclear power company Energoatom (Enerhoatom).
Elina Beketova, fellow at the Center for European Policy Analysis (CEPA) told Newsweek that corruption scandals have badly damaged Ukrainian presidents’ approval ratings but what’s different now is that Ukraine is at war with Russia, so this anger and frustration are unlikely to translate into immediate political fallout.”
“Yes, people are angry” she said, although she added, “in moments of crisis, Ukrainians tend to rally around what’s existential —survival and defense.
Citing an unnamed White House official, Politico reported the Trump administration sees it as an opportune time for a weakened Zelensky to agree to a peace deal as Russian energy infrastructure strikes plunges Ukrainians into a fourth tough winter.
“It’s going to be a brutal winter if the message Zelensky has to say is just more of the same,” said Logan. “There's reason to believe that Ukrainians are going to grow frustrated as the winter may be colder and more bitter than previous winters with very low hope of turning the tide on the battlefield.”
Russia’s Battlefield Status
The initial 28-point plan would have handed Putin territory in the Donbas region which is Ukraine’s most heavily fortified and where military analysts assess would take years to fully occupy.
But as Russia makes incremental progress, especially in its bid to capture Pokrovsk, in the Donetsk oblast, Putin may be in no rush to compromise, betting that western unity could fracture.
"Russia has the upper hand on the battlefield— not immensely, but clearly—, and Vladimir Putin knows this,” said Logan.
“So then the diplomatic settlement has to be more appealing, either via carrots or via the aversion of sticks, than continuing the conflict,” he said. “That fundamental calculus is difficult. His incentives are not favorable for a settlement that would be good for Ukraine. So the question is, how bad is it going to be?
“Everyone's trying to minimize that but the art of the possible here is going to be ugly,” added Logan.
Kovalenko said it is not easy for Zelensky to compromise with the Russian leader who killed so many Ukrainians. But Kyiv has agreed to take one step back, hoping that the future will present an opportunity to take two or more steps forward and return what belongs to Ukraine, or get more.
”Zelensky realizes that saving Ukraine as a country, as a promising Eastern European project, and also people’s lives, is more critical than securing chances for re-election or holding on to idealistic, unrealistic goals of a victory over Russia in the form of returning occupied territories now,” added Kovalenko.
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