Brace for chaos! Michigan, Texas can crank heat on CFP bracket with upsets

Brace for chaos! Michigan, Texas can crank heat on CFP bracket with upsetsStory byBrace for chaos! Michigan, Texas can crank heat on CFP bracket with upsetsBlake Toppmeyer, USA TODAYWed, November 26, 2025 at 2:40 AM UTC·5 min read

How much is a win against an undefeated team worth?

That’s what Michigan and Texas must be asking after clocking in at Nos. 15 and 16 in the newest College Football Playoff rankings.

To have realistic hope of an at-large bid, a team needs to be tucked inside the top 10 of the final rankings.

AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement

I’ve got bad news for No. 12 Miami, No. 13 Utah and No. 14 Vanderbilt: A rivalry week win won't be enough for those teams. They'll also need help from teams ahead of them losing, to climb inside the top 10. Vanderbilt beating Tennessee wouldn't provide the necessary catapult to spring it inside the top 10, if chalk holds up ahead. Sorry, ‘Dores.

Same for Miami and Utah.

But, Michigan and Texas have a supersized springboard positioned between them and Selection Sunday.

A CFP run without Lane Kiffin? There's a smarter move for Ole Miss

CFP rankings winners, losers: Miami, Ole Miss lead headlines

Minnesota vs. Wisconsin: 134 meetings, first met in 1890, play for Paul Bunyan's Axe.Auburn vs. Georgia: 130 meetings, first played in 1892, called "Deep South's Oldest Rivalry."Virginia vs. North Carolina: 130 meetings, first played in 1892, called "South's Oldest Rivalry."Oregon vs, Oregon State: 129 meetings, first played in 1894, called "The Civil War."Cincinnati vs. Miami (Ohio): 128 meetings, first played in 1888, they play for the "Victory Bell" in the "Battle for the Bell."Cal vs. Stanford: 128 meetings, first met in 1892, in what's called the "Big Game", and they play for The Axe.Indiana vs. Purdue: 126 meetings, first played in 1891, called the "Old Oaken Bucket", which they play for.Army vs. Navy: 125 meetings, first played in 1890, simply called "The Army-Navy" game.Kansas vs. Kansas State: 123 meetings, first played in 1902, called the "Sunflower Showdown" and they play for the Governor's Cup.TCU vs. Baylor: 121 meetings, first played in 1899, called the "Bluebonnet Battle" and they play for the Bluebonnet Shield.Kansas vs. Missouri. 121 meetings, first met in 1891, called the "Border War" and they play for the Indian War Drum.Ole Miss vs. Mississippi: 121 meetings, first met in 1901, called the "Egg Bowl" and they play for the Golden Egg Trophy.Kentucky vs. Tennessee: 121 meetings, first met in 1893, no cool name or trophy just good, old-fashion border disdain.Clemson vs. South Carolina: 121 meetings, first met in 1896, game is called the "Palmetto Bowl."Texas vs. Oklahoma: 121 meetings, first met in 1900, game is called "Red River Rivalry" and they play for the Golden Hat.1 / 15

Golden Egg, few axes and a bucket. See college football's longest running FBS rivalries

Minnesota vs. Wisconsin: 134 meetings, first met in 1890, play for Paul Bunyan's Axe.1 / 15

Golden Egg, few axes and a bucket. See college football's longest running FBS rivalries

Minnesota vs. Wisconsin: 134 meetings, first met in 1890, play for Paul Bunyan's Axe.2 / 15

Golden Egg, few axes and a bucket. See college football's longest running FBS rivalries

Auburn vs. Georgia: 130 meetings, first played in 1892, called "Deep South's Oldest Rivalry."3 / 15

Golden Egg, few axes and a bucket. See college football's longest running FBS rivalries

Virginia vs. North Carolina: 130 meetings, first played in 1892, called "South's Oldest Rivalry."4 / 15

Golden Egg, few axes and a bucket. See college football's longest running FBS rivalries

Oregon vs, Oregon State: 129 meetings, first played in 1894, called "The Civil War."5 / 15

Golden Egg, few axes and a bucket. See college football's longest running FBS rivalries

Cincinnati vs. Miami (Ohio): 128 meetings, first played in 1888, they play for the "Victory Bell" in the "Battle for the Bell."6 / 15

Golden Egg, few axes and a bucket. See college football's longest running FBS rivalries

Cal vs. Stanford: 128 meetings, first met in 1892, in what's called the "Big Game", and they play for The Axe.7 / 15

Golden Egg, few axes and a bucket. See college football's longest running FBS rivalries

Indiana vs. Purdue: 126 meetings, first played in 1891, called the "Old Oaken Bucket", which they play for.8 / 15

Golden Egg, few axes and a bucket. See college football's longest running FBS rivalries

Army vs. Navy: 125 meetings, first played in 1890, simply called "The Army-Navy" game.9 / 15

Golden Egg, few axes and a bucket. See college football's longest running FBS rivalries

Kansas vs. Kansas State: 123 meetings, first played in 1902, called the "Sunflower Showdown" and they play for the Governor's Cup.10 / 15

Golden Egg, few axes and a bucket. See college football's longest running FBS rivalries

TCU vs. Baylor: 121 meetings, first played in 1899, called the "Bluebonnet Battle" and they play for the Bluebonnet Shield.11 / 15

Golden Egg, few axes and a bucket. See college football's longest running FBS rivalries

Kansas vs. Missouri. 121 meetings, first met in 1891, called the "Border War" and they play for the Indian War Drum.12 / 15

Golden Egg, few axes and a bucket. See college football's longest running FBS rivalries

Ole Miss vs. Mississippi: 121 meetings, first met in 1901, called the "Egg Bowl" and they play for the Golden Egg Trophy.13 / 15

Golden Egg, few axes and a bucket. See college football's longest running FBS rivalries

Kentucky vs. Tennessee: 121 meetings, first met in 1893, no cool name or trophy just good, old-fashion border disdain.14 / 15

Golden Egg, few axes and a bucket. See college football's longest running FBS rivalries

Clemson vs. South Carolina: 121 meetings, first met in 1896, game is called the "Palmetto Bowl."15 / 15

Golden Egg, few axes and a bucket. See college football's longest running FBS rivalries

Texas vs. Oklahoma: 121 meetings, first met in 1900, game is called "Red River Rivalry" and they play for the Golden Hat.

Texas will host No. 3 Texas A&M on Black Friday.

AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement

A day later, Michigan will host No. 1 Ohio State.

So, I ask again, how much is a win against an undefeated team worth?

With this particular committee, perhaps not worth as much as a “good loss.”

I’m kidding. Or, maybe I’m not. This committee loves "good losses."

But, seriously, a marquee win against an undefeated rival in the final stroll down the catwalk must be worth something.

Enough to climb five or six spots? Maybe.

Miami isn't passing Notre Dame. It's just not.

This committee values eye test and avoidance of bad losses more than it cherishes good wins. That’s why No. 9 Notre Dame is ranked three spots ahead of Miami.

AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement

The Hurricanes have a more impressive top win than Notre Dame. They beat Notre Dame.

But, the Irish have better losses than Miami, in part because they lost to Miami. Confused yet?

Also, the Irish aced the eye test while beating up on several bad teams, so they’ve become a committee darling. If only Notre Dame could load up the playoff bracket with the likes of Purdue, Arkansas, Boston College, Syracuse and Stanford, it would roll to the national championship.

Enough about Notre Dame-Miami, though. This committee has spoken. Miami needs help. Notre Dame just needs to beat Stanford.

Texas has a record problem. Michigan doesn't

Perhaps no team has more potential to inject bracket chaos than Michigan. The Wolverines (9-2) haven't lost to a bad team, so all good on that front. Would beating Ohio State be enough to surpass Alabama and take over the No. 10 spot?

AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement

"I can't predict that,” CFP committee chairman Hunter Yurachek said.

Translation: It’s possible. Alabama has that ugly Week 1 loss to Florida State anchoring its resume. You haven’t forgotten this committee’s feelings about bad losses already, have you?

A Michigan upset of Ohio State smells like rotten fish for the Tide.

Texas is a different kettle of fish, foremost because of its 8-3 record.

You and I know if Texas had scheduled Boston College in Week 1 instead of playing a road game against Ohio State, this committee would look at the Longhorns differently. The committee would see two losses next to Texas’ name instead of three, and never mind that Boston College stinks.

AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement

Beating Boston College by 28 points instead of losing to the defending national champions by seven wouldn’t make Texas a better team, but it would make for a better record. Record matters to the committee, just as it did last season.

Peep the rankings. The three undefeated teams begin the roll call. Then come four one-loss teams, and then come the two-loss teams.

No. 11 Brigham Young (10-1) is the only exception to the record rule within the top 15. It’s ranked behind three two-loss teams.

We can debate fancy metrics ‘til the cows come home, but record remains the metric that matters most to the committee. No three-loss team is ranked inside the top 15, and no three-loss team earned an at-large bid to the party last season.

AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement

So, Texas' record is a problem, even if it topples the Aggies.

Also, unlike Michigan, the Longhorns lost to a bad team. They fell to Florida in The Swamp. The Gators are now 3-8. That’s a lead weight tied to Bevo’s horns.

It also stings Texas that its loss to Georgia came by a 35-10 margin. Longhorns coach Steve Sarkisian supplied the harsh analysis after that loss, calling his team's fourth-quarter performance “a disaster."

The committee hasn't forgotten that fourth quarter.

The rules of playoff qualification:

1. Don’t lose.

2. If you must lose, don’t lose to a bad team.

3. If you must lose to a good team, don’t lose by much.

4. Bonus points for wearing shiny gold helmets.

Michigan has potential to inject chaos into CFP rankings top 10

Add it up, and Michigan has more potential to steal a bid at 10-2 than Texas would have at 9-3.

AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement

Of course, there’s still the matter of beating Ohio State.

Is Ryan Day finally ready to have some fun against The Team Up North?

“Fun is kicking ass,” Day said, “and that’s what we want to do on Saturday. We’re preparing to do that.”

Do that, and it would save this committee from having to answer how much a win against the undefeated, No. 1-ranked team is worth.

Blake Toppmeyer is the USA TODAY Network's senior national college football columnist. Email him at [email protected] and follow him on X @btoppmeyer.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Here comes Michigan (and maybe Texas) here to inject CFP bracket chaos

AdvertisementAdvertisement