Ohio State at Michigan odds, picks, prediction: Best bet, breakdown with the pressure on the Buckeyes

The 121st edition of Ohio State vs. Michigan arrives with high stakes, emotions hotter than ever and a whole lot of unfinished business. Ohio State (11-0, 8-0) rolls into Ann Arbor still carrying the sting of last year’s 13-10 loss — a defeat that turned into a full-on crisis for Ryan Day and the fanbase. Michigan’s flag-planting celebration at midfield didn’t exactly help the mood. One year later, the Buckeyes enter as a double-digit road favorite and the No. 1 team in the nation … but no one in Columbus will be comfortable until this one is in the books.

Meanwhile, Michigan (9-2, 7-1) is playing with exactly zero pressure (kinda). The Wolverines have won four straight in the rivalry and just dropped 45 points on Maryland behind a breakout performance from freshman QB Bryce Underwood. They’re a long shot to reach the Big Ten title game — but beat Ohio State again, and the Wolverines will own the best win in the country and a legitimate case for a playoff bid.

Ohio State (-10, 44.5) at Michigan

Ohio State: Best team in America, worst memories in this matchup

The Buckeyes haven’t beaten Michigan since 2019. That stat alone will tell you everything about the urgency surrounding this weekend.

Ohio State owns the nation’s No. 1 scoring and total defense, and that unit is the reason the Buckeyes have cruised through the season without much resistance. Julian Sayin has been efficient (77% completion, elite EPA) and the run game is peaking at exactly the right time. Before November, OSU was middling on the ground; since Nov. 1, it is averaging 5.55 yards per carry, good for 15th nationally. Last week, freshman Bo Jackson powered a 254-yard rushing day against Rutgers.

With Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate still nursing injuries, that ground resurgence couldn’t have come at a better time. Both star wideouts are expected to play, but neither is 100%. That means Sayin may need to lean on a run-first script and take what Michigan gives him underneath.

Day isn’t just trying to win, he’s trying to reclaim control of the rivalry. No one expects him to take a knee if he’s up late. After last year, he may not even huddle.

Michigan: No pressure, Big House, big swing

It took a while, but Michigan’s offense finally woke up. Underwood has looked far more poised in recent weeks, and the emergence of freshman WR Andrew Marsh has transformed the Wolverines’ passing game. Since Marsh stepped into a bigger role vs. Wisconsin, Michigan’s yards per attempt jumped from last in the Big Ten to top five. Marsh now leads the team with 641 receiving yards and gives Underwood a bona fide chain mover.

The problem: The run game is banged up. Justice Haynes is out, Jordan Marshall is hobbled, and this week the Wolverines are facing the nastiest front four in college football. Michigan traditionally wins this matchup by running downhill and controlling the clock, but this version of the Wolverines may need Underwood to make plays outside the tackles and avoid catastrophic mistakes.

The good news? Michigan’s defense is still tough, especially against the run, and its red-zone personnel matches up well with Ohio State’s biggest strengths.

And of course, the Wolverines are home underdogs. Michigan always gets doubted here. Usually, they love it.

Line movement & market notes

• Ohio State opened -12.5 and has been bet down to -10.

• Public bettors jumped at the double-digit home dog.

• The total is sitting steady around 44.5 with most sharp interest on the under.

• The motivation edge heavily favors the Buckeyes, but Michigan’s free-roll mentality makes it dangerous.

Best bet: Under 44.5 (-115)

This rivalry has produced fireworks before, but this version has all the ingredients for more of a grinder:

• Michigan’s run-first approach plays directly into OSU’s elite front.

• OSU’s injury-limited WR room and surging run game mean longer possessions.

• Both defenses hold up extremely well in the red zone.

• Michigan is unlikely to push the tempo, especially if it's within one score.

Even if Ohio State controls the game, Michigan’s defense is good enough to prevent the Buckeyes from getting into the high 30s. And if Michigan manages to drag this into the mud? Even better for the under.

Prediction: Ohio State 27, Michigan 14