The Long Road Back: Why Michigan's No. 15 CFP Ranking Is A Bridge, Not A Destination

The latest College Football Playoff rankings have been released, and the Michigan Wolverines find themselves slotted at No. 15. For some fans, this is a sign of respect and upward momentum, reflecting a recent string of quality wins. For others, it’s a frustrating reminder of the two early-season losses that have kept a potentially top-10 team from joining the current 12-team playoff field. In the context of a season that has been a steady climb under head coach Sherrone Moore, the No. 15 ranking is less a destination and more of a strategic position—a bridge leading to the most pivotal game of the year.

The Committee's Calculus: The Case for No. 15

To understand the committee’s rationale, one must look at Michigan’s complete body of work. The Wolverines currently boast an 8-2 record, with their two losses coming against ranked opponents—namely Oklahoma (No. 8) and USC (No. 15 in a prior poll). While losing two games is an automatic anchor in the eyes of the CFP, the quality of those opponents matters. A road loss to a high-ranking Oklahoma team is viewed far more favorably than a loss to a sub-.500 rival.

Crucially, Michigan has been on a tear since its second defeat, rattling off a significant winning streak that includes a crucial victory over a solid Washington team (which was ranked in an earlier poll). Furthermore, their most recent win, a dominant 45-20 triumph over Maryland, showed the kind of complementary football—strong rushing, efficient passing from quarterback Bryce Underwood, and a stifling defense—that the committee often rewards. This impressive performance allowed the Wolverines to leap up from their previous ranking of No. 18.

The No. 15 spot reflects the committee acknowledging Michigan's current form and strength while simultaneously punishing them for the early-season missteps. They are essentially positioned as the highest-ranked two-loss team with quality wins, but still behind other two-loss programs like Notre Dame and Alabama, which have arguably stronger overall strength of schedule and better-quality losses.

The Two-Loss Barrier in the New Playoff Format

In the traditional four-team playoff era, a two-loss team needed to be virtually flawless down the stretch and often required chaos above them to even sniff the top four. With the expanded 12-team playoff format, the conversation changes. A two-loss team has a much clearer, albeit difficult, path.

As the No. 15 team, Michigan is currently outside the projected 12-team field. However, unlike teams ranked lower, their fate is largely in their own hands—at least for next week. The Wolverines’ season finale is a home tilt against the undefeated and No. 1-ranked Ohio State Buckeyes.

The Road Ahead: Win and Get In?

The true significance of the No. 15 ranking is that it sets the stage for a classic, high-stakes rivalry matchup. A victory over the No. 1 Buckeyes would not just complete a 10-2 regular season; it would give Michigan arguably the best single win in the entire country.

If the Wolverines manage to pull off the upset, their CFP ranking would skyrocket. They would have a 10-2 record with a victory over the No. 1 team, immediately leapfrogging nearly every two-loss team ahead of them. This scenario would put Michigan firmly inside the top 12, likely securing an at-large bid, even if they don't play in the Big Ten Championship game.

The committee has historically rewarded teams with a major season-defining win late in the year. The jump from No. 15 to a top-10 spot—or perhaps even a spot just outside the first-round bye—is a distinct possibility with a victory over Ohio State.

The No. 15 ranking is a polite acknowledgment of a very good football team that made a few crucial mistakes. But the story of the 2025 Michigan Wolverines will not be defined by where they stand this week. It will be defined by what happens in their final regular-season game. For the Wolverines, the path to the College Football Playoff is a simple, albeit monumental, one: Beat the Buckeyes, and the playoff will come to them.