Heat facing potential make-or-break game in NBA Cup on Wednesday night vs. Bucks

MIAMI — The Miami Heat are on the cusp of finding out whether their NBA Cup is half full or half empty.

Based on results Wednesday, the Heat either could clinch a berth in the in-season tournament’s knockout round for the first time . . . or be eliminated.

The primary factor in that equation is the Heat’s fourth and final game of pool play, a matchup against the Milwaukee Bucks on Wednesday night at Kaseya Center.

With a victory in that game plus a New York Knicks road loss to the Charlotte Hornets, the Heat would win their group and potentially host a quarterfinal Cup game on Dec. 9 or 10 at Kaseya Center.

With a Heat loss Wednesday, the Heat would be eliminated from winning their group and even from potentially advancing as a wild-card team, based on other tournament results.

Should the Heat be eliminated this week from advancing to the Cup’s knockout round, they would have two games added to their schedule — one home, one away between Dec. 11 and Dec. 15 — to round out their 82-game regular-season schedule.

All games in the in-season tournament also count toward the regular-season standings, with the exception of the Dec. 16 championship game in Las Vegas. The semifinal games of the event are Dec. 13 in Las Vegas.

So what exactly is the incentive?

$$$.

Players on teams advancing to the knockout round receive $53,093 each. Players appearing in the semifinals receive $106,187. Players on the losing team in the championship game receive $212,373. Players on the title team receive $530,933 apiece.

As for Wednesday night’s game against the Bucks, there also will be a team incentive, with margin of victory a key tiebreaker in determining seedings and homecourt advantage for the quarterfinals.

That had Heat coach Erik Spoelstra’s team pushing their margin of victory to 36 in last week’s NBA Cup victory in Chicago, now entering the game against the Bucks with a +46 margin of victory through their first three Cup games that have produced a 2-1 record in the in-season tournament.

Of pushing to the finish last week in Chicago, Spoelstra acknowledged having margin of victory in mind.

“We’re going for it,” he said. “Everybody is aware of it.”

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The primary tiebreaker in pool play, however, is head-to-head result. With the Knicks at 1-1, they would win the Heat’s pool regardless of the Heat’s result Wednesday if New York wins Wednesday in Charlotte and then Friday at home against the Bucks. The Knicks defeated the Heat 140-132 in Cup play on Nov. 14 at Madison Square Garden, with the Heat winning their two non-Cup matchups against the Knicks so far this season.

As for Wednesday, there also is the Heat incentive of extending their season-best winning streak to six, the Heat without a loss since losing that defeat in New York.

With Monday night’s 106-102 victory over the visiting Mavericks, Spoelstra now is one victory shy of 800 regular-season coaching wins. He enters Wednesday night at 799-578 over his 18 seasons, poised to become the 17th coach to reach 800 wins . . .

With nine consecutive games with double-digits rebounds, second-year center Kel’el Ware now has the longest such Heat streak since Omer Yurtseven had a 14-game streak from Dec. 17, 2021 to Jan. 15, 2022. Ware also is the first Heat player to average 14 or more rebounds over a nine-game span since Yurtseven averaged 14 from Dec. 26, 2021 to Jan.14, 2022.