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Predicting the top 12 of the fourth release of the CFP Rankings

2025-11-25 15:18
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Predicting the top 12 of the fourth release of the CFP Rankings

It's Tuesday, and that means we are about to get a look at the fourth set of CFP Rankings for 2025. Before that, we predict what they'll look like.

Predicting the top 12 of the fourth release of the CFP RankingsStory byPhil Harrison, Buckeyes WireTue, November 25, 2025 at 3:18 PM UTC·7 min read

The rubber is close to meeting the road. We are now getting ready for our fourth set of the CFP rankings of 2025 on Tuesday. We've had another week of scintillating games (okay, everything pretty much held serve this past weekend) to add to the minds of the CFP committee that works collectively to decide where teams fall in the rankings that decide who gets to be a part of the 12-team field.

Now, it's time to absorb what the CFP rankings will be for Week 4, and each subsequent week beyond that -- including the conference championship games the first weekend in December. Will Ohio State still be No. 1? Is Indiana still No. 2 ahead of Texas A&M? What about other Big Ten teams still in the running, like Oregon and Michigan? Where they are will be a key to where they could eventually land.

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We are dying to find out.

We'll get a real, live look at those rankings once they are announced on ESPN, but we like to predict what those rankings will look like ahead of the reveal each week. And, since the third release is occurring on Tuesday again -- well, we're game to give it another shot, and will hopefully do better this time now that we have a baseline for what the committee put out there in Week 2.

Here's how we see the third College Football Playoff Rankings for 2025 playing out on Tuesday night. We'll go from No. 12 down to No. 1 as usual.

No. 12 - Miami Hurricanes (9-2)

Oct 4, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes wide receiver Malachi Toney (10) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown during the second half against the Florida State Seminoles at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Myers-Imagn ImagesOct 4, 2025; Tallahassee, Florida, USA; Miami Hurricanes wide receiver Malachi Toney (10) celebrates with teammates after scoring a touchdown during the second half against the Florida State Seminoles at Doak S. Campbell Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Myers-Imagn Images

Last Week's Ranking | No. 13

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Why it makes sense

Miami has been gaining momentum and is playing better since its midseason swoon. Utah struggled with an unranked team last week, and it could be enough to move the Hurricanes up past the Utes in the eyes of the CFP Committee.

No. 11 - BYU Cougars (10-1)

BYU football team celebrates after winning 41-27 over Iowa State at Jack Trice Stadium on Oct. 25, 2025, in Ames, Iowa.BYU football team celebrates after winning 41-27 over Iowa State at Jack Trice Stadium on Oct. 25, 2025, in Ames, Iowa.

Last Week's Ranking | No. 12

Why it makes sense

BYU got a massive win for its playoff chances with a victory over Cincinnati on the road. It keeps the Cougars on pace to make the Big 12 Championship game and right there in for an at-large bid. BYU may want to go ahead and win out just to be safe because No. 11 is right around the cut line because of the non Group of Five and conference championship auto-bids.

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No. 10 - Alabama Crimson Tide (9-2)

Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer during the college football game against Tennessee at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Oct. 18, 2025.Alabama coach Kalen DeBoer during the college football game against Tennessee at Bryant-Denny Stadium in Tuscaloosa, Ala., on Oct. 18, 2025.

Last Week's Ranking | No. 10

Why it makes sense:

There's really no reason to move Alabama up or down. Staying pat at No. 10 should be enough to keep the Crimson Tide in the field, but, without moving up, it'll have to go to another team's place to play a first-round game. Not ideal, but who really wants to see those helmets walking out of the tunnel? The Tide will also get a crack at winning the SEC if it wins against Auburn on Saturday.

No. 9 - Notre Dame Fighting Irish (9-2)

Notre Dame linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa (27) celebrates after intercepting a pass in the second half of a NCAA football game against NC State at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025, in South Bend.Notre Dame linebacker Kyngstonn Viliamu-Asa (27) celebrates after intercepting a pass in the second half of a NCAA football game against NC State at Notre Dame Stadium on Saturday, Oct. 11, 2025, in South Bend.

Last Week's Ranking | No. 9

Why it makes sense:

The Fighting Irish have kind of been given the benefit of the doubt -- winning nine in a row after dropping their first two of the season. You have to wonder if the head-to-head loss to Miami will come into play at some point. The game control is good, but there are not many impressive wins against ranked opponents to speak of. But, if the Irish were here to begin with, they'll be here again after beating Pittsburgh last week.

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No. 8 - Oklahoma Sooners (9-2)

Sep 13, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Oklahoma Sooners running back Xavier Robinson (24) makes a touchdown reception against the Temple Owls in the second half at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn ImagesSep 13, 2025; Philadelphia, Pennsylvania, USA; Oklahoma Sooners running back Xavier Robinson (24) makes a touchdown reception against the Temple Owls in the second half at Lincoln Financial Field. Mandatory Credit: Kyle Ross-Imagn Images

Last Week's Ranking | No. 8

Why it makes sense:

Oklahoma did what it had to do last week by disposing of a ranked Missouri team. The Sooners are firmly in the CFP field right now with wins over Alabama and Texas, but there is no margin for error at this point to lose another one. Not making the SEC Championship Game might actually benefit Oklahoma at this point. So, beat LSU this weekend, and the Sooners are likely a lock.

No. 7 - Ole Miss Rebels (10-1)

Ole Miss running back Logan Diggs (22) celebrates with offensive lineman Brycen Sanders (62) during a college football game between Ole Miss and LSU at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Miss., on Saturday, Sept. 27, 2025. Ole Miss defeated LSU 24-19.Ole Miss running back Logan Diggs (22) celebrates with offensive lineman Brycen Sanders (62) during a college football game between Ole Miss and LSU at Vaught-Hemingway Stadium in Oxford, Miss., on Saturday, Sept. 27, 2025. Ole Miss defeated LSU 24-19.

Last Week's Ranking | No. 6

Why it makes sense:

Ole Miss is in great shape, but will the CFP committee knock the Rebels down a peg and reward Oregon for a dominating win over a ranked USC team? It already happened with the AP poll, and we're calling for it to happen here too, because this committee has leaned heavily on the eye test. While Ole Miss's resume might be just a week bit better with the win over Oklahoma, there's not that big of a difference.

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No. 6 - Oregon Ducks (10-1)

Oct 25, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore (5) throws a pass during the first half against the Wisconsin Badgers at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn ImagesOct 25, 2025; Eugene, Oregon, USA; Oregon Ducks quarterback Dante Moore (5) throws a pass during the first half against the Wisconsin Badgers at Autzen Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Troy Wayrynen-Imagn Images

Last Week's Ranking | No. 7

Why it makes sense:

As already mentioned, Oregon's smackdown of USC might be enough to have the committee leapfrog the Ducks over Ole Miss. The only loss in the body of work is to the No. 2 team in the country as Oregon tries its best to get up into that top four. A huge road game at Washington looms. It would be interesting to see what the committee would do with the Ducks should it lose in Seattle.

No. 5 - Texas Tech Red Raiders (10-1)

Mandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-Imagn ImagesMandatory Credit: Scott Sewell-Imagn Images

Last Week's Ranking | No. 5

Why it makes sense:

Is any team flying more under the radar than Texas Tech? The Red Raiders have just the one loss -- a weird one -- at Arizona State. Aside from that, they've been dominant, including two wins over ranked opponents, including a drubbing of Utah in Salt Lake City. Tech would love to get up into the top four.

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No. 4 - Georgia Bulldogs (10-1)

Oct 4, 2025; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs tight end Elyiss Williams (10) runs after a catch against the Kentucky Wildcats at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn ImagesOct 4, 2025; Athens, Georgia, USA; Georgia Bulldogs tight end Elyiss Williams (10) runs after a catch against the Kentucky Wildcats at Sanford Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Dale Zanine-Imagn Images

Last Week's Ranking | No. 4

Why it makes sense:

It sure looks like Georgia is starting to hit its stride and getting better by the week. We didn't find out much last week against FCS opponent Charlotte, but wins over Ole Miss, Texas, and at Tennessee will be impressive to the committee. We'll see how all of the SEC tiebreakers fall and whether or not the Bulldogs are in Atlanta for a chance to get the conference's auto-bid.

No. 3 - Texas A&M Aggies (11-0)

Oct 11, 2025; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies running back Le'Veon Moss (8) runs the ball in for a touchdown during the second quarter against the Florida Gators at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn ImagesOct 11, 2025; College Station, Texas, USA; Texas A&M Aggies running back Le'Veon Moss (8) runs the ball in for a touchdown during the second quarter against the Florida Gators at Kyle Field. Mandatory Credit: Maria Lysaker-Imagn Images

Last Week's Ranking | No. 3

Why it makes sense:

A&M is undefeated, and a case could be made to move the Aggies up, but regardless, they are in a very, very good spot and likely already in the field. They still have to get past Texas this weekend, and if they do, they'll be in Atlanta to try and take home the SEC Championship. Lose, and believe it or not, the Aggies could be at home watching the SEC title game but still a high seed in the CFP.

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No. 2 - Indiana Hoosiers (11-0)

Oct 25, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver E.J. Williams Jr. (7) reacts after scoring a touchdown during the second half against the UCLA Bruins at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn ImagesOct 25, 2025; Bloomington, Indiana, USA; Indiana Hoosiers wide receiver E.J. Williams Jr. (7) reacts after scoring a touchdown during the second half against the UCLA Bruins at Memorial Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Robert Goddin-Imagn Images

Last Week's Ranking | No. 2

Why it makes sense:

Indiana is really the clear No. 2 team and will remain here until the Big Ten Championship game -- unless Purdue shocks the world and upends the Hoosiers. The Hoosiers are a lock for the CFP, no matter what and will be playing for the No. 1 seed. They likely have also already locked up a first-round bye, again, unless there is an inexplicable loss at Purdue.

No. 1 - Ohio State Buckeyes (11-0)

Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) celebrates in the first half of the college football game at Ohio Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025 in Columbus, Ohio.Ohio State Buckeyes wide receiver Jeremiah Smith (4) celebrates in the first half of the college football game at Ohio Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 1, 2025 in Columbus, Ohio.

Last Week's Ranking | No. 1

Why it makes sense

Yes, there's the Michigan problem coming up, but Ohio State has looked like the best team in the country easily, having never trailed in the second half this entire season. The defense is historically dominant, the offense can seemingly score at will, and the Buckeyes pass the eye test with several NFL first-rounders on the roster. Can OSU close the deal with a win over Michigan and then win in Indy to clinch the No. 1 seed?

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This article originally appeared on Buckeyes Wire: CFP Rankings: Predicting the top 12 teams in the fourth release

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