Valero Energy Stock: Is Wall Street Bullish or Bearish?

VLO -0.93% ^GSPC -0.33% XLE -0.11%

With a market cap of $61.8 billion, Valero Energy Corporation (VLO) is a global energy manufacturer and marketer producing petroleum-based and low-carbon transportation fuels and petrochemical products. It operates through Refining, Renewable Diesel, and Ethanol segments, supplying fuels and related products under well-known brands such as Valero, Diamond Shamrock, and Diamond Green Diesel.

Shares of the San Antonio, Texas-based company have outperformed the broader market over the past 52 weeks. VLO stock has climbed 51.7% over this time frame, while the broader S&P 500 Index ($SPX) has rallied 14.9%. Moreover, shares of the company are up nearly 24% on a YTD basis, compared to SPX's 1.1% gain.

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Looking closer, shares of the oil refiner have also exceeded the State Street Energy Select Sector SPDR ETF's (XLE) 20.2% increase over the past 52 weeks.

Despite beating expectations with Q4 2025 adjusted EPS of $3.82 and revenue of $30.37 billion, Valero shares fell marginally on Jan. 29 as investors focused on softer full-year profitability, with 2025 net income declining to $2.3 billion ($7.57 per share) from $2.8 billion ($8.58 per share) in 2024. The market was also cautious about segment-level weakness, particularly in Renewable Diesel, where operating income fell to $92 million from $170 million year-over-year.

For the fiscal year ending in December 2026, analysts expect VLO's adjusted EPS to grow 15.8% year-over-year to $12.29. The company's earnings surprise history is promising. It beat the consensus estimates in the last four quarters.

Among the 22 analysts covering the stock, the consensus rating is a “Moderate Buy.” That’s based on 12 “Strong Buy” ratings, one “Moderate Buy,” and nine “Holds.”

On Feb. 9, Citi analyst Vikram Bagri raised Valero’s price target to $212 while maintaining a “Neutral" rating.

As of writing, the stock is trading above the mean price target of $193.95. The Street-high price target of $220 implies a potential upside of 8.6% from the current price levels.

On the date of publication, Sohini Mondal did not have (either directly or indirectly) positions in any of the securities mentioned in this article. All information and data in this article is solely for informational purposes. This article was originally published on Barchart.com