Space Stock Surge: Can Intuitive Machines Smash the $25 Barrier?

LUNR -4.23%

Quick Read

• Intuitive Machines (LUNR) surged 99% over six months. The stock recently rebounded to around $20 after falling to $14.50.

• Intuitive Machines closed its $800M Lanteris acquisition in mid-January. The deal brings satellite manufacturing capabilities across multiple orbits.

• Multiple analysts raised price targets to the $22.50-$26 range with most maintaining Buy ratings.

• Investors rethink 'hands off' investing and decide to start making real money

Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR) has been on quite the rocket ride lately, shooting up to a high of around $23.30 per share before dropping sharply to about $14.50 just a few days ago. But then it bounced back hard -- climbing nearly 18% on Friday to close around $17.50 per share, and this morning it is up another 14% or so, trading near $20 and pushing back above that level.

After all the ups and downs, with its 52-week range stretching from roughly $6 to that recent peak, the question is: can this momentum carry it past $25?

Riding the Six-Month Surge

The big story over the last six months has been a roughly 99% climb in Intuitive Machines stock, and a lot of that comes down to the excitement swirling around the entire space sector. There's been significant buzz about SpaceX potentially going public this year, with talk of a massive valuation of $1.5 trillion, which has gotten investors excited about anything space-related -- including Intuitive Machines.

Then came the announcement of SpaceX's merger with xAI in early February, valued at $1.25 trillion combined, and that gave related stocks another lift (Intuitive Machines popped about 5% that day alone). Add in the company's selection to help with NASA's Artemis II mission late last month, and it is easy to see why the enthusiasm rose.

Wall Street has been cheering it on, too. Several analysts have bumped up their price targets recently, with firms like KeyBanc moving to $26 while sticking with a Buy rating, Canaccord Genuity set a $22.50 per share target on a similar upbeat view of the 2026 space environment, and Clear Street targeted $25, highlighting its acquisition of Lanteris Space Systems as a real growth driver.

Profit Taking and Market Pressures

Of course, it wasn't all smooth sailing. After hitting that $23 peak, the stock gave back ground quickly amid some profit-taking -- especially after a strong run earlier in the year. Broader market jitters played a role too, and one analyst at Stifel even shifted to a Hold rating with a $20 target, saying the risk-reward looked more balanced after certain contract wins. The actual closing of the big Lanteris acquisition in mid-January triggered a classic "sell the news" dip, with shares sliding noticeably that day.

Now, though, the stock is roaring back again, with solid gains over the past few trading sessions. That Lanteris deal -- valued at $800 million -- brings satellite manufacturing capabilities into the mix for low, medium, and geostationary orbits.

Suddenly, Intuitive Machines looks like a more complete, vertically integrated player that can handle missions for commercial clients, government agencies, and national security needs, spanning everything from Earth orbit to cislunar space. Analysts see this as a big edge when bidding on juicy contracts, like those from the Space Development Agency or ongoing NASA lunar work.

Yet, it is the positive sentiment from analysts that keeps fueling the rally. Most covering the stock are sitting on Buy ratings, with average targets landing in the $18 to $22.50 per share range from around 10 firms. Some see 14% to 32% upside over the next couple of years, and even more conservative calls are holding steady on the bullish side.

Key Takeaways

Looking ahead, there's real potential for Intuitive Machines to push toward $25 or higher. The SpaceX-related hype isn't going away anytime soon, and the Lanteris integration should help grow the backlog and expand what the company can do.

Revenue projections are looking strong, with estimates for the combined Intuitive Machines-Lanteris company pointing to around $1 billion by 2027 though positive EBITDA may not arrive until after 2026. The upcoming IM-3 mission in mid-2026 could be another big catalyst if things go well.

That said, near-term swings are always possible -- more profit-taking could pop up again, or general market volatility might weigh things down -- fears of an SaaS-pocalypse rattled the market last week. But barring any major external shocks, the setup looks promising for continued upside. Space is hot right now, and Intuitive Machines seems well-positioned to ride the wave.

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