Property market expert, Kate Faulkner, reviews the latest house price data for England, Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland.
7th Feb 20260 347 5 minutes read Kate Faulkner OBE
Once we move away from ‘averages’ for house price data for the UK or England/Wales and focus at a country level, we can see that performance continues to be very different – especially when you compare the long term to what’s happening now.
Comparing prices year on year, Wales is recording an insignificant rise of 0.7%, with England at 2.2%, Scotland at 4.5%, and, no doubt, Northern Ireland rejoicing at the whopping 7% rise.
However, compare todays prices to before the credit crunch and the success pretty much reverses, with Northern Ireland prices still 14% lower than they are today, while England tops the charts at 50% higher – although do bear in mind this rise is mostly driven by houses, not flats.
Add into this a comparison of todays prices versus 2005, the benchmark year for analysing house price data, and we see Scotland top the charts, with an average of 3.7% rise each year, while Wales has the lowest rise – 2.7%.
To put this in context, England’s property prices ‘break even’ versus average inflation of 3%, while Scotland’s outperforms at 3.7% and in Wales and Northern Ireland, property prices are actually lower in real terms today than they were in 2005.
General indices commentaryNationwide
“Northern Ireland continued to outpace the rest of the UK by a wide margin, with prices increasing by 9.7% over the year. This was more than five times faster than the 1.7% recorded in the UK as a whole (in Q4) and nearly three times higher than the 3.5% recorded in the next strongest region (North West). This strong performance mirrored that in the border regions of Ireland over the same period.
“Despite these significant price gains, house prices in Northern Ireland are still around 5% below the all-time high recorded in 2007, while UK prices are almost 50% higher over the same period. As a result, the price of a typical home in Northern Ireland is currently around 79% of the UK average price, while in 2007 it was around 25% higher.
“Scotland broadly matched the wider UK trend in 2025 with annual house price growth of 1.9%. Meanwhile, Wales saw a slight increase in annual house price growth to 3.2% and was the only other part of the UK, apart from Northern Ireland, to see stronger house price growth in 2025 than in 2024.”
Halifax
“Nations and regions house prices Northern Ireland continues as the strongest performing nation or region in the UK, with average property prices rising +7.5% over the past year, with a typical home now costing £221,062. In Scotland, the average home now costs £217,775, with the nation recording annual price growth of +3.9% in December. Property values in Wales rose +1.6% over the year, to an average of £230,233. In England, the North East had the highest annual growth rate, as property prices rose by +3.5%, to £181,798.”
Zoopla
“House price inflation varies sharply at a local level. Northern Ireland leads with growth of 6.7%, reflecting recovery from a low base and a more stable economic and political backdrop. The strongest price growth in Britain is concentrated in northern England and Scotland, including the Scottish Borders (4.7%), Oldham (4.4%), Kirkcaldy (4.2%) and Falkirk (4.2%), with further upside expected in 2026.”
Northern Ireland housing market Q3 2025
This great chart shows the enormous house price bubble that hit at the height of the market in 2008 and then came crashing down and still have yet to recover. So there is a bit of a ‘two tier’ housing market for consumers in Northern Ireland – those that bought since 2009 will have seen some great growth today and be able to move and trade up while those that bought prior to this time will see their property prices still substantially lower (on average) than they were 20 years ago.
Michael Boyd, Chief Executive, Progressive Building Society explains what’s happening to the Northern Ireland property market in more detail:
“Northern Ireland’s housing market heads into the second half of 2025 with solid momentum and renewed confidence. Average property prices rose to £215,713 in Q2, showing a 1.4% increase from the previous quarter and a 2.7% rise compared to this time last year. This steady growth reflects a market that is both active and stable, supported by strong buyer interest and improving mortgage conditions.
“Much of this momentum is being driven by more accessible lending…lenders continue to be competitive with an increasing number of mortgage products being offered.
“Estate agents are also reporting higher levels of listings and completions. In fact, over 70% of agents noted increased market activity in Q2, with semi-detached and terrace/townhouse properties leading the way in terms of price growth. Regional trends have been varied, with Fermanagh & Omagh and Mid & East Antrim having seen the strongest gains, while areas like Mid Ulster and Lisburn & Castlereagh experienced slight declines.
“The wider economic picture is, however, more mixed. Wage growth has slowed to 5%, unemployment has risen to 4.7%, and inflation remains stubbornly high at 3.6%. These pressures, along with higher employer taxes and ongoing global uncertainties, may weigh on buyer confidence in the months ahead. Even so, the outlook remains positive. Three out of five estate agents expect prices to either hold steady or rise slightly in the second half of the year.
“Continued competition among lenders and the potential for interest rate cuts could help keep the market moving forward. In summary, the housing market in Northern Ireland is in a strong, if cautious, position. Demand remains healthy, mortgage conditions are favourable and buyer sentiment is largely upbeat, creating a solid foundation for the rest of 2025.”
According to Walker Fraser Steele, the Scottish market “marches” on:
– Across much of the country prices continue to strengthen. – Two-thirds of local authorities hitting fresh market peaks this year. – Sales activity has also revived over recent months. – Prospects look set fair for 2026.
Scott Jack, Regional Development Director at Walker Fraser Steele, comments:
“Scotland’s housing market continued its upward trajectory in October, with average property prices reaching a record £233,800. This marks a 0.5% increase on the month and a 0.7% rise over the quarter, underlining a steady recovery in contrast to more subdued conditions elsewhere in the UK.
“Recent months have seen consistent gains, supported by stronger sales activity and increased mortgage lending. October also brought a broader-based improvement, with more local authorities recording price rises than at any point earlier this year. Five areas achieved new highs, including Dumfries and Galloway, taking the total number of authorities hitting peak prices in 2025 to 21 out of 32.
“Looking ahead, Scotland’s housing market appears well placed to maintain its strength into 2026. Softer mortgage rates and anticipated base rate cuts should support affordability, even as remortgaging activity picks up. With supply still constrained, these factors point to continued resilience and modest price growth in the year ahead.”
Data from Savills says:
“House prices have grown and sales activity has improved in Wales in 2025. Mortgage rates have fallen gradually, improving affordability and allowing prices to grow. Indicators of demand have generally been quite weak, but this does not appear to have limited sales activity, which has been at its strongest in several years. We expect a quiet 2026, before stronger price growth from 2027 onwards.
“Despite this positive backdrop, new homes completions are at their lowest in a decade. Planning consents have dropped sharply this year, meaning the outlook for development is very weak.”
One key difference between England and Wales is that unlike the English market, Wales kept the Help to Buy Scheme, although its use “remains well below peak and has begun to plateau – 9% of new homes were purchased under the scheme in the year to March, a level that has remained broadly consistent for the last few quarters.”
For next year, Savills “expect a quiet 2026, before stronger price growth from 2027 onwards.”
7th Feb 20260 347 5 minutes read Kate Faulkner OBE Share Facebook X LinkedIn Share via Email
