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Can anyone stop Coventry winning the Championship?

2025-12-04 10:18
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Can anyone stop Coventry winning the Championship?

Frank Lampard's Coventry City are 10 points clear at the top of the Championship and could create history - but will anything stand in their way?

Can anyone stop Coventry winning the Championship?Story byCoventry City manager Frank Lampard and Josh Eccles celebratingFrank Lampard has won 95 points in his 47 league games as Coventry City manager [Getty Images]Ben Ashton - BBC Sport England; Alex Hoad - BBC Sport JournalistThu, December 4, 2025 at 10:18 AM UTC·10 min read

Coventry City are in uncharted waters. And they might already be disappearing over the horizon from the Championship's chasing pack.

Never has a side been as many as 10 points clear at the top after 18 games of a Championship season.

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It's also 66 years since a team has scored 50 goals by this stage of a second-tier campaign - Sheffield Wednesday in 1958-59.

Frank Lampard's imperious side have won 11 of their past 12 league games and are on course to break all manner of Championship records, including most points, most wins and most goals.

Premier League football for the first time since 2001 seems to be edging towards an inevitable formality.

So can anyone - or anything - stop the Coventry juggernaut?

How likely are Coventry to win promotion?

The Championship top six as of 4 December and Coventry's players celebrating against CharltonCoventry's 10-point lead is the biggest held in the Championship after 18 games [PA Media]

Opta's supercomputer gives Coventry a 90.5% chance of becoming champions and a 96.8% likelihood of at least automatic promotion.

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Only one team in history has ever had upwards of 43 points (or equivalent when a win was worth two points) after 18 games and failed to finish in the top two in the second tier.

That happened 120 years ago when Manchester United had the equivalent of 47 points and went on to finish third in the old Division Two.

Since 2004-05, the previous biggest Championship lead after 18 games was six points, held by Wolves in 2008-09 who also had 43 points. They went on to win the title.

No team has been 10 points clear at any stage of a season in that time and not finished top. The most significant points advantage overturned is nine.

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Birmingham City were nine points clear in 2006-07 but finished second and still won promotion, however, Watford also led by nine points in 2007-08 but famously collapsed to finish sixth and lost in the play-off semi-final to Hull City.

Opta's supercomputer table showing the chances of each team finishing top of the Championship:
Coventry 90.5%, Middlesbrough 3.2%, Ipswich 1.8% and every other team less than 1%Second-placed Middlesbrough are only given a 3.2% chance of finishing top, according to Opta's supercomputer (data as of 1 December 2025) [Opta]

Why are Coventry so effective?

The most obvious quality is that Coventry's goalscoring is the best in Europe right now.

Bundesliga giants Bayern Munich and Dutch Eredivisie leaders PSV are the closest challengers with 44, but no-one else in England's top four divisions are near.

Coventry have 20 more goals than any other Championship side and 15 more than the second-highest scorers across the Premier League and EFL.

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They have netted three or more goals in 10 of their 18 league matches and their ability to do so has paid dividends, never more so than in their 4-2 win at closest title rivals Middlesbrough last week.

"They are where they are for a reason and score the volume of goals they do for a reason," said Boro coach Adi Viveash, who spent seven years as assistant to Mark Robins at Coventry from 2017 to 2024.

"Two goals has been enough for us to win at home this season but against the best team in the league at the moment, it wasn't."

Sky Blues forward Ephron Mason-Clark said: "It's an amazing stat but of course we want to get 50 more and more and more. That's our objective. Nothing is ever good enough until the end of the season."

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So, how have Coventry been so efficient in front of goal? Aside from great finishing, it's about how they've used the ball.

Coventry are only the seventh highest in the division in terms of average possession per game (54%), but they've had 79 more touches in the opposing penalty area (544) than the next highest team (Sheffield United, 465).

It shows they are able to get the ball forward into dangerous areas quickly, which has helped them generate the most shots with 325 - 41 more than second-best Ipswich's 284 - and the most shots on target (107), ahead of Southampton (92).

Coventry also have the fewest touches in their own defensive third and most touches in the attacking third, helping control the game and contain opposition teams by playing higher up the pitch.

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Defensively, they are strong too, boasting the second meanest defence (18 conceded) behind only Stoke (14).

It's that balanced style Lampard believes has led to the success so far.

"If you look at our performances, we have found different ways to win games but still keeping the feeling of what we are as a team," Lampard told BBC CWR.

"We're not trying to jump back and forth from ultra possession to ultra transition but we can do a lot of things and that's a tactical development as a team we should be proud of.

"The players want to take on information. We set out our game plan, we view the opposition, but we always try to hold dear to what we want to be, which is an exciting team with a lot of energy and quality."

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Could injuries, suspensions or January transfers stop Coventry?

The foundation of any successful promotion campaign is stability and the availability of key players.

Lampard, so far, has had it pretty good with his relatively lean squad.

Only Stoke (21) have used fewer players across their opening 18 Championship games than the Sky Blues (22).

The bedrock of Coventry's success is how settled they are, particularly through the spine of the team.

Keeper Carl Rushworth, defender Liam Kitching and holding midfielder Matt Grimes have started every game, while centre-back Bobby Thomas and wing-backs Milan van Ewijk and Jay Dasilva have 17 starts apiece.

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Eight players have been in the starting line-up for 15 out of 18 games and 11 have more than 1,050 league minutes on the pitch already this season.

While attacking midfielder Jack Rudoni missed nine matches with a calf injury, the Sky Blues have otherwise largely been able to call on their best players every game.

There are signs things have started to turn on the injury front, though, as top scorer Brandon Thomas-Asante is sidelined until January with a torn hamstring, Tatsuhiro Sakamoto has been out with concussion and Haji Wright has missed three games with a thigh strain.

It's not just injuries which play a role in the hectic festive schedule - suspensions can have a big impact too.

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Coventry are one of just eight Championship sides not to have a man sent off so far this season, but only seven clubs have picked up more than their 35 yellow cards.

Despite that, the Sky Blues have only had to deal with one suspension until now - Van Ewijk's one-game ban after accumulating five yellow cards.

It proved a costly one as Van Ewijk, whose long throw is a key component of City's attacking game, sat out at Wrexham on 31 October - their only defeat of the season so far.

Thomas, Wright, Dasilva, Kitching and Victor Torp are currently on four cautions as Coventry head to Ipswich on Saturday (15:00 GMT) - another yellow for any at Portman Road would rule them out of Tuesday's trip to fifth-placed Preston.

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The good news for Lampard is that should they avoid a caution, the disciplinary table resets after Saturday to the 37th match of the campaign, which comes in mid-March, with the threshold for a two-match suspension moving to 10 bookings.

'Amazing but Coventry need to invest in January' - what fans think

Coventry's eight upcoming fixturesCoventry face five teams in the top eight in the Championship in their next eight games [Getty Images]

Jamie: December looks a tough month fixture wise but the way they are playing, they won't fear anyone. The only thing likely to halt them is injuries as Lampard has deliberately kept the squad quite lean so everyone is involved. A couple of good additions in the January window will be required just to keep things ticking over.

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Mark: Deservedly at the top of the table. The key challenges will be holding on to players through the January transfer window and dealing with injuries. Allowing for a drop in form, things are still looking good.

Brian: Lampard is getting the maximum out of the players with a way of playing that seems unstoppable. The only thing that could derail their progress is injuries. The squad is small and they lack quality cover in some positions. They need to invest in January to maintain the momentum.

BBC Final Score reporter Marc Webber says Coventry's performances are "a true testament to the amazing turnaround" under Lampard since he succeeded the popular Robins just over a year ago.

"It is this form that is bringing around even the most hardened Coventry fan who had doubts over the manager's appointment," Webber said.

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"However, while it brings joy, it also brings risk. With the January transfer window approaching, Premier League clubs may be making some bids if this hot form continues.

"But they would have to be some pretty chunky offers to prise these players away from perhaps the most unified team in the league.

"A side which seems unstoppable right now."

What else could halt Coventry's progress?

Coventry attackers Brandon Thomas-Asante and Haji Wright Coventry have four players in the top nine leading goalscorers in the Championship - Brandon Thomas-Asante (10), Haji Wright (8), Victor Torp (7) and Ellis Simms (7) [Rex Features]

For those looking for a potential chink in the Coventry armour, there may be a glimmer of hope. But it's no more than that.

Coventry have outperformed their expected goals (38.3) by around 12 and there is an argument they could regress to the mean.

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But even if they were in line with their current xG, Coventry would still be the highest scorers, comfortably leading the next closest teams in Southampton (32.9) and Ipswich (31.4).

Another potential sticking point is Coventry's over-reliance on coming back from losing positions to win points.

They have fallen behind six times this season, yet taken 13 points from those games (W4 D1 L1). The Sky Blues are second only to Watford (15) for recovering points from losing positions, though the Hornets have gone behind 12 times.

The counter-argument, of course, is that it is the sign of champions-elect to overcome adversity on such a consistent basis.

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Who are Coventry's biggest challengers?

Second-placed Middlesbrough are the obvious candidates, while Millwall, Stoke and Preston are in the promotion mix but have all been inconsistent by comparison.

For Coventry to be overhauled, it would require them to lose four games and any of the chasing pack to keep winning.

It feels unlikely.

A form graphic showing Coventry's 11 wins in 12 games and manager Frank Lampard celebratingCoventry's current run is their best-ever over a 12-game period in the top two divisions of English football [PA Media]

'High-risk, high-reward football brings results'

"No amount of superlatives are really sufficient to describe what's happened in the last year under Lampard," said BBC CWR commentator Rob Gurney.

"When [owner] Doug King took him on, the Sky Blues were 17th in the Championship and a significant proportion of the fanbase were not convinced.

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"An extraordinary run to the play-offs was only halted by a last-gasp extra-time Sunderland goal in a heartbreaking semi-final second leg.

"But there was no real hangover from that and even their solitary defeat at Wrexham has been responded to in the most spectacular fashion.

"His brand of high-risk, high-reward football has brought goals, goals, goals, and results, even if sometimes they have found it tough.

"But Coventry are on course to break almost every record going in the Championship, and possibly the EFL itself."

The EFL records Coventry could break:
Most points in a Championship season - 106 - held by Reading 2005-06 (Coventry projected points: 109)
Most points in an EFL season - 111 - held by Birmingham 2024-25 in League One
Most wins in a Championship season - 31 - held by Leicester 2013-14 (Coventry projected wins: 33)
Most goals in a second-tier season - 122 - held by Middlesbrough in 1926-27 (Coventry projected goals: 127)Coventry have picked up 2.38 points per game this season, giving them a projected total of 109 points across 46 games [Getty Images]

What a difference a year has made under Lampard, who has won 29 of his 47 league games in charge (D8 L10) at a win ratio of 62%, picking up 2.02 points per game.

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With that record, it seems like clutching at straws to envisage anything other than promotion for Coventry.

Anything can, of course, still happen with more than half the season remaining, but Coventry are undeniably on the right path to end their 24-year wait to again dine at the top table.

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