Evaluating Northwestern men’s basketball one month into the season

After a 4-0 start featuring some significant scoring margins, Northwestern men’s basketball received its first reality checks over the past couple of weeks. Losses to Virginia and Oklahoma State exposed vulnerabilities that had been masked by softer early-season competition. With a 5-2 record before Big Ten play opens Wednesday against Wisconsin, what’s working for the Wildcats, and what needs to be fixed?

Let’s take a look.

The Positives

Northwestern’s individual performances have largely exceeded expectations. Nick Martinelli continues his dominant presence, averaging 20.6 points and 6.6 rebounds per game and ranking third in the Big Ten in scoring. The senior forward has shouldered the offensive load as expected, but he hasn’t been alone.

Transfer Arrinten Page has emerged as the season’s biggest surprise, providing a legitimate second scoring option in the frontcourt. After averaging just 3.5 points per game at Cincinnati last season, Page is contributing double-figure scoring while adding interior defense and rim protection. Point guard Jayden Reid has delivered both orchestration and scoring, with his developing chemistry with Page producing picturesque alley-oops that smooth Northwestern’s offense.

Angelo Ciaravino has surged into a regular starting role, posting 14 points against Oklahoma State and providing versatile two-way production. And highly-touted freshman Tre Singleton has showcased flashes of the special talent that made him Northwestern’s highest-rated recruit.

Head coach Chris Collins has deployed a wider rotation than in recent years, getting bench contributors meaningful minutes earlier in the season. Tyler Kropp and Jake West have sparked the second unit with energy and production, providing depth that could prove crucial during the conference grind.

The team’s overall performance shows relative balance on both ends. Northwestern is posting a 57.6% effective field goal percentage, ranking 38th nationally according to NCAA statistics, while holding opponents to a 44.5% effective field goal percentage (33rd nationally, according to KenPom). The Wildcats have been particularly effective defending the three-point line, limiting opponents to 28.1% shooting from beyond the arc, 45th-best in the country.

The Negatives

The Virginia and Oklahoma State losses exposed glaring weaknesses that better opponents will continue to exploit.

Rebounding remains Northwestern’s most concerning deficiency. In those two defeats, the Wildcats surrendered 36 offensive rebounds combined, allowing opponents to generate second-chance points at will. Northwestern’s opponent offensive rebounding rate sits at 36.9%, 323rd nationally per KenPom, essentially bottom of the barrel.

The lack of physicality and effort on the glass has become a pattern. When teams crash the offensive boards aggressively, Northwestern gets pushed around and punished.

Foul trouble has become another issue. Five of Northwestern’s seven opponents have outshot the Wildcats at the free-throw line. It’s not just about handing opponents free scoring opportunities; it’s also about personal discipline on the hardwood.

Page and Singleton both fouled out against Virginia, while Ciaravino fouled out against Oklahoma State. When key rotation players sat with foul trouble or foul out entirely, Northwestern would be disrupted in rotations.

Pace presents an additional concern. Northwestern ranks 269th in adjusted tempo — not an encouraging sign despite a slight improvement from last year.

Finally, K.J. Windham’s silence and his limited minutes shut down the discussion about whether he should start. Beyond his 11-point performance in the season opener against Mercyhurst, Windham hasn’t provided the explosive bench scoring that made him so valuable late last season.

Should this be a concern? I don’t know, but Windham’s ability to catch fire is an asset Northwestern needs. Wednesday’s conference opener against Wisconsin will be telling.

What’s Next

Despite an early real check, it is always beneficial to learn lessons early, which provides more time to address problems before they become fatal. The Oklahoma State defeat serves as a particularly valuable test case before Big Ten play begins.

Wednesday’s conference opener against Wisconsin presents an immediate challenge that targets Northwestern’s biggest weakness. The Badgers post a 34.4% offensive rebounding rate compared to Northwestern’s 29.6% defensive rebounding rate — a recipe for the same glass-crashing punishment that doomed the Wildcats against Virginia and Oklahoma State. If Northwestern can’t solve its rebounding woes against Wisconsin’s physical frontcourt, the losses will continue to mount.

More tests lie ahead, and the Wildcats need to buckle up now. The margin for error in Big Ten play is extremely thin, and Northwestern’s early-season vulnerabilities won’t be forgiven by conference opponents.

The talent and balance are there. The question is whether Northwestern can shore up its weaknesses before it derails what started as a promising season.