By Andrew StantonShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberA new poll of a battleground congressional district in Pennsylvania showed Democratic candidate Janelle Stelson hold a narrow lead over incumbent Republican Representative Scott Perry.
The poll, conducted by Public Policy Polling for a group titled Republicans Against Perry, showed Stelson leading Perry by 4 percentage points (48 percent to 44 percent), reported PennLive. It surveyed 549 registered voters in the district and had a margin of error of plus or minus 4.4 percentage points.
Newsweek reached out to the Perry and Stelson campaigns for comment via email.
Why It Matters
Pennsylvania’s 10th Congressional District is expected to be among the most competitive races next November as Democrats hope to win back control of the House of Representatives. It’s a district that has leaned toward Republicans, though the party’s margins have narrowed in recent years. Stelson, a former TV news anchor, has received the party’s support in the primary to take on Perry, a member of the conservative House Freedom Caucus.
What to Know
The district comprises Dauphin County, which includes Harrisburg, as well as Cumberland County and parts of York County. Democrats have targeted the district in the past, as it is viewed as becoming more competitive, but Perry has won tight elections in the past few cycles.
In 2024, Perry defeated Stelson by only about 5,000 votes in what was one of the closest races in the country. He won by more than 7 points in 2022. Democrats are hopeful 2026 will be a stronger national environment, especially if President Donald Trump’s approval rating is low next November.
...The 2026 race is going to be “very competitive,” Daniel J. Mallinson, professor of Penn State Harrisburg, told Newsweek.
“He has had multiple election cycles where his was listed as a ‘flippable’ seat, but he always won. He won in 2024 too, but by a much smaller margin,” he said. “He received just 50.8% of the vote in the district. It's also going to be a hard election for Republicans writ large.”
Stelson has been the “strongest opponent” Perry has faced so far, and his district has experienced demographic changes that could “weaken his position somewhat,” Mallinson said. Stelson is also a “well-known and well-liked news personality” voters in the district are familiar with.
“This is part of the state that is growing, including places that used to be more rural and Republican. Cumberland County is emblematic here. It's technically a "rural" county, but it is also the fastest growing county in the state,” he said. “Those are folks moving out from major metro areas (Philly and Baltimore) as well as being drawn by the local healthcare industry.”
The poll found that 53 percent of the district's voters disapprove of Perry, while 36 percent approve of his job performance, reported PennLive. Meanwhile, 39 percent of respondents said they viewed Stelson favorably, compared to 33 percent who said they viewed her unfavorably.
Dauphin County Commissioner Justin Douglas is also running in the Democratic primary, but was not included in the poll.
What People Are Saying
Daniel J. Mallinson, professor of Penn State Harrisburg, also told Newsweek: “Perry's political demise has been predicted for several cycles, but he has held on through powerful incumbency advantages. An anti-Republican wave election plus a strong candidate like Stelson might be enough to put her over the top, but he has held on before and may well hold on yet again.”
House Speaker Mike Johnson, a Louisiana Republican, endorsed Perry last month, writing on X: “Congressman Scott Perry has helped deliver working families tax cuts, a secure border, American energy dominance, peace through strength, and lower costs for families across Pennsylvania and our nation. Scott has also brought his business and military service experience to Congress to lead efforts to support our troops, veterans, and law enforcement.”
Janelle Stelson criticized Perry’s position on health care in a Tuesday post to X: “In one month, health care tax credits that Central Pennsylvanians rely on are set to expire. Costs will skyrocket. @RepScottPerry called extending these credits a "colossal mistake.” Perry wants you to pay more for health care. Talk about out of touch.”
What Happens Next
Forecasters view this race as among the most competitive. Both the Cook Political Report and Sabato’s Crystal Ball classify it as a pure toss-up.
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