By Mandy TaheriShareNewsweek is a Trust Project memberRepublicans kept a Tennessee congressional seat in Tuesday’s special election, but Democrat Aftyn Behn cut into President Donald Trump’s 2024 margin in the district, falling in line with some Democratic candidates’ overperformance in recent state and federal contests.
Why It Matters
Even in an off-year cycle, several major races have been held. Six House special elections have taken place so far in 2025, including two Florida contests prompted by departures to President Donald Trump’s administration and four others triggered by lawmakers’ deaths.
Democrats swept the year’s two off-cycle gubernatorial contests, winning the governorships in Virginia and New Jersey, and New York City voters elected democratic socialist Zohran Mamdani as mayor. However, Democrats fell short in several House special elections, even as they narrowed GOP margins.
NPR reported in November that Democrats have overperformed previous margins by an average of about 14 points in special elections this year. In some races, they have also run ahead of Trump’s 2024 showing in the same districts.
Tennessee 7th Congressional District
Republican Matt Van Epps defeated Democrat Aftyn Behn on Tuesday in a district President Donald Trump carried easily in each of his three presidential runs. Trump won the 7th District by about 22 points in 2024, but Behn narrowed that gap this year, losing by roughly 9 points, an overperformance of about 13 points for Democrats despite falling short.
...Virginia Gubernatorial Race
Trump lost Virginia to Democrat Kamala Harris by about 5.8 percentage points in 2024. In November, Democrat Abigail Spanberger won the governor’s race by roughly 15 points.
New Jersey Gubernatorial Race
The president also lost New Jersey in 2024 by about 5.9 points. However, Democrat Mikie Sherrill widened that gap in November, beating Republican and Trump-endorsed candidate Jack Ciattarelli by about 14.4 points.
Florida 1st Congressional District
Trump won Florida’s 1st Congressional District by roughly 38 points in 2024, but Republican Jimmy Patronis prevailed in this year’s special election by about 14.6 points over Democrat Gay Valimont. The tighter result shows Democrats cutting into a GOP stronghold even as Republicans kept the seat.
Florida 6th Congressional District
In a similar vein, Trump won the 6th district by about 30 points in 2024, and this April, Republican Randy Fine beat Democrat Josh Weil by about 14 points, another example of Democrats not securing the seat but closing the margins.
New York State Senate District 22 Special Election
Democrats' strongest overperformance comes from New York's 22nd Senate district, where Democrat Sam Sutton won by 35 points in a May special election. Trump carried the seat by 55 points in November 2024, making for a 90-point overperformance. The district is located in South Brooklyn and includes Orthodox Jewish communities. While Trump has performed well there, it has been more open to Democrats down ballot.
...Iowa State Senate District 1
Trump carried Iowa Senate District 1 by about 10 points in 2024. In the 2025 special election, Democrat Catelin Drey won the seat by roughly 10.5 points, showcasing a near 21-point swing toward Democrats.
Iowa State Senate District 35
Trump confidently carried Iowa Senate District 35 by about 21 points in 2024. In January, Democrat Mike Zimmer flipped the seat, winning by roughly 4 points over Republican Katie Whittington. The result was about a 25-point overperformance by Democrats compared with Trump’s margin a year earlier.
What Happens Next?
Even as Democrats scored a string of high-profile 2025 wins and narrowed Republican margins in several races, the 2026 midterms remain an open question and the bigger battleground where either party stands to make its most consequential gains.
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