Can James Madison make the CFP? The Dukes need help from the ACC

Can James Madison make the CFP? The Dukes need help from the ACCStory byPaul Myerberg, USA TODAYWed, December 3, 2025 at 4:30 PM UTC·4 min read

Two weeks ago, USA TODAY Sports explained how No. 25 James Madison was not going to make the College Football Playoff. We’re here now to tell you the Dukes may, in fact, do just that.

In our defense, the initial assessment wasn’t off base: James Madison is not going to be the highest-ranked conference champion in the Group of Five, a designation that will go instead to the winner of the American championship game between Tulane and North Texas, respectively ranked No. 20 and No. 24 by the committee.

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But a second avenue to the College Football Playoff has opened as a result of chaos in the ACC, which could have a five-loss conference winner if Duke beats No. 17 Virginia.

If James Madison beat Troy to win the Sun Belt crown and the Blue Devils win their rematch against the Cavaliers, the playoff selection committee may leave the ACC out of the tournament entirely in favor of a second Group of Five representative.

James Madison linebacker Gannon Weathersby (3) celebrates with safety Jacob Thomas (7) and defensive lineman Xavier Holmes (9) during their game against Louisville at L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium.

Here’s why and how James Madison is suddenly back on the playoff map:

Why James Madison can make the playoff

The 12-team playoff reserves five spots for the highest-ranked conference champions. While the assumption is that four of those spots will always be claimed by the major conferences, that’s not guaranteed — the automatic berths simply go to the five highest-ranked conference champions.

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And that’s why James Madison has an opening.

No. 1 Ohio State or No. 2 Indiana will represent the Big Ten and No. 3 Georgia or No. 9 Alabama the SEC. No. 5 Texas Tech will play for the Big 12 against No. 11 Brigham Young. All three conference winners likely will finish in the top four of the final rankings.

Things could work out for the ACC should Virginia win. In that case, the Cavaliers would be ranked fourth among conference champions. This would keep the American winner as the only Group of Five team in the bracket.

But if Virginia loses, the committee will have to decide on the fifth automatic berth between the Blue Devils and James Madison. In this case, that the Dukes are in the penultimate rankings and the Blue Devils were not can be seen as a major asset.

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Still, to place two Group of Five teams in the tournament means leaving a Power Four champion on the cutting-room floor. There might need to be a big gap between James Madison and Duke for the committee to set that precedent.

How James Madison gets into the playoff

How to go from a Birmingham Bowl berth to the opening round of the playoff in two easy steps:

First, dominate Troy to win the Sun Belt going away. James Madison can’t afford a sloppy or narrow victory, which would give the committee the cover they’d need to push Duke in front.

Second, the Blue Devils have to beat Virginia, for reasons we’ve explained. The nature of the win isn’t really important: Duke just has to win, period, after getting beaten decisively at home by the Cavaliers in November.

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And that’s it. Beat Troy and leave no doubt while chaos comes to the ACC.

Comparing Duke and James Madison

Duke will have the Power Four label, a strong win to end the year, significantly stronger wins overall and substantially better losses.

But the Blue Devils will also have five losses to the Dukes’ one, and that will carry significant weight with the committee regardless of any imbalance in the comparison of schedules.

Duke will have beaten five bowl teams in Virginia, North Carolina State, California, Clemson and Wake Forest.

They’ve also avoided any bad losses, dropping games to Illinois, Tulane, No. 22 Georgia Tech, Connecticut and Virginia. That the Blue Devils went 0-2 in games against the Group of Five is significant, though.

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So is the Dukes’ non-conference loss to Louisville. But James Madison led 14-6 in the second half and were tied 14-14 when the Cardinals returned a fumble for a touchdown in the fourth quarter. Overall, the Dukes had more first downs, more rushing yards and dominated the time of possession but were ruined by penalties and two turnovers.

The potential comparison comes down to two factors, both to the Dukes’ advantage.

One team would have five losses and another just one loss; even if the ACC is significantly better than the Sun Belt, to pick the five-loss team would stretch logic and the committee’s already thin credibility.

And importantly, James Madison is already in the rankings. The Dukes would not drop out with a convincing win against Troy. That means the committee would have to take an unranked Duke team, one with five losses, and promote them all the way to No. 24 or higher in the final rankings.

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When you look at things that way, James Madison might land the fifth conference berth with room to spare.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: James Madison has College Football Playoff path with help from ACC

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