NFC postseason probabilities: The 49ers have a higher chance at making the playoffs than the current #1 seed

As improbable as it may seem, the San Francisco 49ers have an outside chance at obtaining the No. 1 seed in the NFC playoffs. There’s roughly a 26 percent chance of the Niners winning the NFC West. One more slip-up from the Rams, and we can begin to have a serious conversation about both, so long as Kyle Shanahan and company continue their winning ways.

Let’s go through the postseason probabilities for the 49ers as they head into their bye week.

49ers playoff odds heading into Week 14

If the playoffs started today, the 49ers would play at SoFi Stadium, the Packers would head to Philadelphia, and Seattle would travel to Tampa Bay, while Chicago gets the No. 1 seed.

Thankfully, the playoffs do not start today, and the seedings are hardly worth mentioning as there will be an ungodly amount of shuffling from now until the final day of the regular season.

If you don’t believe me, the team currently ranked first in the NFC, the Chicago Bears, have a 76 percent chance of making the postseason, per ESPN’s FPI Index, while the seven-seeded 49ers have the third-highest odds in the NFL to make the playoffs. Football is fickle, and these projections account for each team’s schedule moving forward.

So, despite being in first place now, the Bears have the seventh-best odds of any NFC team to make the postseason. Here’s a look at the complete odds for the conference:

1) 49ers – 93.4%2) Eagles – 92.6%3) Rams 92.4%4) Packers – 90.8%5) Seahawks – 89.4%6) Bucs – 79.5%7) Bears – 76.3%8) Lions – 44.1%9) Panthers – 23.4%10) Cowboys – 18.2%

The Cowboys are as hot as anybody, but still face the Lions, Vikings, Chargers, Rams, and Ravens. They need to be flawless to make it.

A hilarious outcome would be the 49ers winning the NFC West because the Rams and Seahawks lost to the Panthers. Carolina and Tampa Bay still play twice, which should decide that division.

Detroit has alternated wins and losses since Week 5. I think it’s over for the Lions, who still have to face the Cowboys, Rams, Steelers, Vikings, and Bears. If the Lions make the playoffs, it’ll be because they earned it.

The Bears are a year ahead of schedule. I’m expecting Green Bay to humble them, and the Lions to win in Week 18. The 49ers should also catch Chicago at the opportune time.

I’d be more worried about Klint Kubiak than Sam Darnold. Seattle’s defense is at a tier where Darnold is unlikely to be the one who has to win them a game.

Green Bay’s defense lost a starter this past week, but their quarterback play has been superb, and Micah Parsons makes them as dangerous as anybody.

The Rams feel like the team that runs through the regular season, and then everyone acts surprised when they lose in the playoffs despite the signs being there all along.

Nothing has told us that the Eagles would win a playoff game. They have so many issues on offense, and it’s making their defense leaky.

Which brings us to the team with the highest odds to make the postseason. John Lynch is unsure whether Brandon Aiyuk will play this season. If he returns for the playoffs, the ceiling of this team rises by a game at the very least.

NFC Playoff prediction

We’ll be consistent and use ESPN’s playoff machine, where you can go through each game for the remainder of the regular season and see how everything works out. Here’s what the NFC playoff picture would look like in this hypothetical:

Here’s how we got there. In Week 14, Dallas beats Detroit, Tampa over New Orleans, Seattle over Atlanta, Green Bay beats Chicago, the Rams route Arizona, and the Eagles beat the Chargers.

Then, in Week 15, the Bucs beat the Falcons at home, Chicago handles Cleveland at home, the Raiders embarass themselves in Philadelphia, Daniel Jones looks lost in Seattle, the Packers roll at Mlie High Stadium, the 49ers beat the No. 1 overall pick, the Panthers beat the Saints, Detroit comes out ahead in a must-win game against the Rams, and the Cowboys beat J.J. McCarthy.

The following week, Seattle stalls at home against the Rams; Philly beats the Commanders; the Packers beat up on their little brother again at Soldier Field; Dallas beats the Chargers; Baker beats Bryce; the Lions don’t lose to Aaron Rodgers; and the 49ers beat the Colts in a shootout.

In Week 17, the Cowboys, Lions, Rams, and Seahawks all beat inferior opponents. The Packers and Eagles beat their AFC foes, while the Bears drop their third game in four tries against the Niners.

Finally, Week 18 sees the Rams, Eagles, Cowboys, Lions, Packers, and Bucs all winning. Unfortunately for the 49ers, a home loss to Seattle means they go from being the No. 5 seed and traveling to Tampa Bay to the No. 6 seed and traveling to Philadelphia.

The 49ers have some revenge to serve Philadelphia after the 2022 NFC Championship game. The Eagles are 27th in EPA per play since Week 9 and 30th in offensive success rate. There isn’t a better matchup in the playoffs for the 49ers than Philly.

How far-fetched do these results seem? The Lions won’t have Amon Ra-St. Brown this week, in what’s effectively an elimination game against the Cowboys. The Rams and Seahawks game is a coin flip, but I’ll side with experience there, while Green Bay and Dallas should roll during the last month, the way they’re playing. San Francisco’s Week 18 bump will seem like a downer until they get into the Wild Card.