Sarah Hooper
Published December 1, 2025 11:12am
Updated December 1, 2025 11:12am
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Previous Page Next PageAs US Forces continue to concentrate in the Caribbean ahead of the holidays, President Donald Trump has announced all skies around Venezuela are ‘closed’.
There have been rumblings of a potential conflict between Venezuela and the United States for months now, but tensions are coming to a head.
It comes amid Operation Southern Spear, headed up by General Dan Caine, which is attempting to stop the flow of drugs into America. But stopping the flow of drugs could involve air strikes into Venezuela, which the Trump administration blames for the crisis.
Warships and coast guard vessels have been in the area since August, but the USS Gerald R Ford, the biggest aircraft carrier in the world, joined the fleet in early November.
‘President Trump is prepared to use every element of American power to stop drugs from flooding into our country and to bring those responsible to justice,’ an official told Reuters last week.
In a chilling threat posted online, Trump wrote: ‘To all Airlines, Pilots, Drug Dealers, and Human Traffickers, please consider THE AIRSPACE ABOVE AND SURROUNDING VENEZUELA TO BE CLOSED IN ITS ENTIRETY. Thank you for your attention to this matter!’
It’s worth noting that the US doesn’t have the authority to shut down another country’s airspace, but the post has sparked panic for Venezuelans, who are already on edge after Trump’s strikes on ‘narco boats’.
What could a war between Venezuela and the US look like?
The US has placed many troops close to Venezuela (Picture: Metro Graphics/Emily Manley)
Though an outright war is still unlikely, the concentration of American air and naval forces near Venezuela points to concentrated airstrikes if things were to kick off.
The US troop levels right now are a bit too low for a full land invasion, but if things kick off with air strikes, Maduro’s troops might struggle due to their ageing weapons.
Most of the air defences in the country are Russian-made, which do work, but are no match for modern American weapons.
But the power of US weapons stretches far beyond aircraft carriers, soldiers and ships. It also includes five military and naval bases in the Caribbean, allowing easy access to the region.
Data from Reuters placed 12 naval ships in the Caribbean as of November. This would allow the US to begin air strikes with ease if things were to escalate further.
Are Trump’s attacks on alleged ‘narco’ boats legal?
General Caine has been visiting troops in the Caribbean (Picture: Reuters)
US forces have carried out multiple fatal strikes targeting boats in Venezuelan waters following claims they are carrying drugs linked to gangs.
In September, a strike against a Venezuelan gang in the Caribbean left 11 people dead in international waters, prompting questions about the legality of the attack.
Sources told CNN that UK officials believe the September strike, and others, violate international law after having killed 76 people so far.
UN Human Rights Chief Volker Türk went one step further – calling them ‘extrajudicial killing’.
Could Trump attack Venezuela?
The world’s largest aircraft carrier, the USS Gerald R Ford, is in the Caribbean now (Picture: AFP)
The US government is targeting Venezuela because they don’t view President Nicolas Maduro as a legitimate leader. Secretary of State Marco Rubio said Cartel de los Soles, or Cartel of the Suns, is ‘responsible for terrorist violence’ in the Western Hemisphere.
Maduro denies being involved, but the designation is the latest attempt by Trump to stop drug trafficking into the US.
How much of the US drug supply comes through 'narco boats'?
The main countries mentioned as a source of the cocaine are in South America (Picture: Metro Graphics)
Part of the reason Trump has been striking ‘narco boats’ in the Caribbean is that he claims a lot of the drugs in America are trafficked from Venezuelan gangs.
But a 2020 report from the US Drug Enforcement Administration found that just 8% of the country’s cocaine came by boat through the Caribbean.
Colombian-origin cocaine is the most common type seen in the US, and is normally transported not by boat, but by Mexican cartels through the southwest border.
The report added: ‘Mexican TCOs (Transnational Criminal Organisations) continue to obtain multi-ton shipments of powder cocaine from South American traffickers,moving it through Central America and Mexico, and then smuggling it into the United States over the Southwest Border.
‘Traffickers, including Dominican TCOs, also transport cocaine throughthe Caribbean Corridor, primarily via maritime and aerial smuggling methods.’
Rumours have also circulated for a while that Trump wants to push for regime change to unseat Maduro, who has accused the US of ‘fabricating a new eternal war’.
Trump, if he chooses to begin actually striking Venezuela with weapons, would likely target facilities belonging to Maduro’s regime or criminal gangs in a bid to stop this.
Operation Southern Spear: What has the US military done so far?
Operation Southern Spear, ordered by Trump and Secretary of Defence Pete Hegseth, is aimed at stopping illegal drugs from entering the United States from South America.
The operation includes nearly a dozen Navy ships and about 12,000 sailors and Marines congregating in the Caribbean, with US forces having conducted bomber flights near Venezuela already.
Trump’s team has weighed both military and non-military options with Venezuela, including covert action by the CIA.
Venezuela airspace closure: What does it mean?
Flights around Venezuela have thinned out after Trump’s threat (Picture: FlightRadar24)
As of now, Trump’s order to ‘block’ the airspace isn’t legal. But last week, international airlines began to cancel flights to Venezuela after the Federal Aviation Administration told pilots to be cautious flying around the country because of heightened military activity.
The FAA’s jurisdiction is generally limited to the United States and its territories.
Though the agency does routinely warn pilots about the dangers of flying over areas with ongoing conflicts or military activity around the globe, its latest warning about Venezuela has prompted more conversation over a potential conflict.
Who is President Nicolas Maduro?
Maduro, an authoritarian socialist who has been in charge of Venezuela for the past 25 years, has retained his grip on power through questionable elections.
Maduro was sworn in as president for the first time in 2013, before taking home two more ‘victories’ in 2018 and 2025.
The Venezuela crisis: What is going on?
A massive economic and political crisis has been underway in Venezuela since 2010.
Former President Hugo Chavez first declared an ‘economic war’ because of shortages in the country, which worsened when Maduro took office in 2013.
In the chaos, this year alone, prices of food have gone up by an estimated 548%, and are forecast to get worse.
Maduro has ruled with an iron fist since taking office, and extrajudicial killings and disappearances have skyrocketed in the past 15 years.
‘We’re scared, silent, afraid they’ll throw us in jail. I used to post things, but not anymore – I shouldn’t – because I don’t know who might turn me in,’ one worker from southern Venezuela told the BBC.
What is Venezuela’s military power?
Out of a total population of 31 million, only 15 million residents in Venezuela are available, and 12 million are currently fit for service.
The military consists of 109,000 active personnel, with paramilitary forces far outnumbering those of the Army, Air Force and Navy.
Is Venezuela’s military strong enough to fight the US?
Currently, no. But if Trump launches a campaign in the country, guerrilla warfare resistance could be utilised by paramilitaries and locals.
This type of warfare could see smaller paramilitaries and military units sabotage any US movement in the country.
If that doesn’t work, ‘anarchisation’ would unleash anarchy on the streets of Caracas, the capital city, making Venezuela ‘ungovernable’ for any foreign country.
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The shortage of military equipment – most of which is Russian-made and decades old – poses a major problem for Maduro.
Who are Venezuela’s allies?
Venezuela is believed to be aligned with Russia, China, Iran, Turkey, Syria, and Cuba.
The Washington Post reported that Maduro asked China, Iran and Russia for military equipment as the threat from the United States increases.
But so far, none have come to his aid.
Get in touch with our news team by emailing us at [email protected].
For more stories like this, check our news page.
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