Matt RussellContributing writerMon, December 1, 2025 at 3:20 AM UTC·6 min readYes, there’s still one more game left in Thanksgiving Week’s endless buffet of football.
No, Tom Brady nor Eli Manning are strolling out on the field Foxborough on Monday night, but two fanbases from separate conferences — who don’t much like each other — are hoping that their current quarterbacks are the ones to lead them back to the glory days of when the Patriots and Giants twice met in the Super Bowl.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementFor the Patriots, a year ahead with their QB, it looks like Drake Maye has as good a chance as any to be a star for the next 10-plus years. For the Giants, while this season is lost record-wise, the future is the reason Jaxson Dart is back behind center, because Jameis Winston’s recent stint not only gave the Giants a chance to beat a pair of NFC North contenders, but it was also a tremendous amount of fun.
The switch back to Dart appears to have something of an effect on the betting market — the first thing we need to parse out before making a bet on the side or total for Monday Night Football.
Odds courtesy of BetMGM.
New York Giants at New England Patriots (-7.5, 46.5)
Leading into Week 12’s Giants game in Detroit, the Lions were favored by 10 or 10.5 points throughout the week, when it looked like Dart would be able to go. Once New York announced that it would be another week of Winston, the line shot up to -13 before stabilizing at -12.5. It was a sure sign that the market felt better about Dart than Winston.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementFor a line that high, the number of points is less important, and last week’s move from -10.5 to -12.5 when Dart was ruled out, could reasonably equate to just a half-point move on/off a key number like -7 (because of how often a game with a touchdown spread lands on a 7-point win for the favorite).
The Patriots have their own roster shake-up to deal with, and while it’s not at the most important position in football, losing first-round pick Will Campbell at arguably the second-most important position (left tackle) is probably worth something as well.
After a surprising surge up the standings, New England’s rating in the betting market has finally stabilized with back-to-back games landing either on the closing line (-13 vs. Jets) or amidst it (between -5.5 and -7.5 vs. Bengals, when Joe Burrow’s status put the spread in flux). However, the absence of Campbell and left guard Jared Wilson hasn’t triggered a drop ahead of a matchup against a Giants defensive front whose strength is its pass rush, even without Kayvon Thibodeaux.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementEven ignoring Week 10 — where the Giants led by 10 in Chicago before Dart left the game with a concussion — from Week 4 to Week 9 with Dart at the helm, New York was 11th in EPA/Play on offense and above average on both run and pass plays. In Week 10 and 11, whether it’s due to Winston or the coaching change from Brian Daboll to Mike Kafka, the Giants’ EPA/Play on dropbacks has been the best in the NFL (admittedly aided by trick plays last week).
If the Giants can combine that efficiency, helped by the return to health of left tackle Andrew Thomas (rated fifth among all tackles by PFF), then they can score with the Patriots, who might be slowed by their own protection issues.
Pick: Giants +7.5
Player props
Jaxson Dart: Longest pass completion under 33.5 yards (-115)
The Giants have been good at scheming up long passes via trick play or getting players loose in the secondary that wouldn't expect. However, on the road on a cold night in New England, with Christian Gonzalez frequently matched up against New York’s best deep threat, we’ll bet that the Giants offense isn’t able to strike for a big chunk through the air.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementTyrone Tracy over 2.5 receptions (-125)
It’s taken some time, but the Giants have finally realized that throwing to a former college receiver out of the backfield might take some pressure off its QB. Maybe that was a Winston thing, but with seven receptions on eight targets in the last two games, Kafka should be pointing out to Dart what the veterans do to take easy completions (Russell Wilson targeted Tracy 13 times in the Giants' first three games).
The Patriots allow the third-most receptions to opposing running backs (5.4 per game), so it should be there for Dart.
Drake Maye under 244.5 passing yards (-115)
The Giants’ run defense is porous. If you take out Week 1, when the Bills got run over by the Ravens on the ground, New York has the worst EPA/play allowed on opponent run plays. Barring an outlier scenario where the Patriots trail big at halftime, and given the entire left side (Maye’s blindside) of their offensive line is compromised, dropping back for numerous long-developing passing plays seems like a bad idea.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementMaye throws a nice deep ball, so he may catch the Giants on one, and numerous short completions may be the order of Monday night, but an accumulation of high-volume yardage should be tough. Not to mention unnecessary if TreVeyon Henderson and Rhamondre Stevenson can churn consistent gains on the ground.
Anytime touchdown
Tyrone Tracy (+210)
Tracy broke a 42-yard reception last week in Detroit, but the notable number was the five touches he received in the red zone, compared to just one for Devin Singletary. After Cam Skattebo suffered his season-ending injury, Singletary edged Tracy in snaps the next week, but in the three subsequent games, it’s been Tracy in the role of No. 1 running back. At +200 or better, he’s worth backing to score, since he can do it in more than one way.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementTheo Johnson (+310)
In games started by Dart, Theo Johnson has received an average of 5.85 targets, with no fewer than four in any game. In the other five games started by Wilson and Winston, Johnson only had 19 balls thrown his way (3.8 per game). He and Dart seem to have a better connection in the red zone, as the second-year tight end out of Penn State has caught all five of his touchdowns this season on Jaxson’s darts.
Rhamondre Stevenson (+150)
After missing three straight games, Stevenson returned last week, and while he appears to finally have lost his role as No. 1 tailback to the rookie Henderson, Stevenson was still given a pair of goal-line carries in Cincinnati, as part of playing one-third of the snaps. Especially, if playing time is more of a 50-50 split, Stevenson’s a good bet to score, as he’s widely available at better than 2-to-1 odds.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementKayshon Boutte (+270)
Boutte also came back last week (from a two-game absence), but was immediately reinserted into a key role, playing 80% of the snaps — the most he’s played all season. While he only had two catches in his return to action, before Boutte left Week 9 early, he had scored in three straight games. He's a favorite deep-ball target for Maye.
You can find more valuable betting analysis from Yahoo Sports betting contributor, Matt Russell, at THE WINDOW.
AdvertisementAdvertisement