Booms and Busts: Underdog in your fantasy football league? Week 13 showed there is always hope for an upset

The NFL has always marketed itself as a league prime for upsets. And we’ve seen plenty of that during this week.

Thanksgiving Day brought three games, all won by the underdogs. Call that Any Given Thursday.

The upstart Bears took down Philadelphia a day later. Queue up Any Given Friday.

And on the main slate for Week 13, it was the Panthers shocking the Rams. You know the refrain by heart, Any Given Sunday.

Fantasy football regularly has those same themes. We know who the best teams are, but the best teams can easily lose. All it takes is a day of flukes, or an injury, or some off-weather, or some unheralded players having high-end returns. If you play this game long enough, you surely remember the juggernaut team of yours that was somehow beaten by a rag-tag opponent. Or the happier memory would be when you had the motley crew of waiver-wire collections, and you took down the mighty favorite.

It was shocking to see Matthew Stafford struggle with ball security at Carolina. The MVP favorite hadn’t thrown an interception since Week 3, but the Panthers harried him into two interceptions and a game-clinching fumble. This offset Stafford’s 243 passing yards (8.7 YPA) and two touchdowns, both (naturally) to Davante Adams. When the smoke cleared, the Panthers had the upset — and the Bears, of all teams, moved into the No. 1 slot for the NFC.

Upsets come in various forms. Nobody expected Blake Corum (7-81-1) to outplay Kyren Williams (13-72-1), and we certainly didn’t expect Chuba Hubbard (124 total yards, one touchdown) to outshine Rico Dowdle (79 total yards). This is a good reminder of why we’re constantly stockpiling running back depth on our rosters, even when we don’t need it at the moment. Backfield rotations tend to be fluid.

Even the Los Angeles passing tree was a little wider than usual. Adams had the two spikes, but he was limited to four catches and five targets. Puka Nacua checked in with 6-72-0 on nine targets, including perhaps the NFL’s best catch this year. But you expect Nacua to miss out on the goal-line work; he’s stuck on four touchdown catches (and five scores overall) while Adams is up to 14. WR Xavier Smith (3-82-0) and TE Colby Parkinson (4-27-0) were useful.

Jalen Coker (4-74-1) was the surprise alpha for the Carolina passing game, absorbing six targets. Tetairoa McMillan only snagged one of his four opportunities, but it went for a game-breaking 43-yard touchdown. If you can figure out the Bryce Young matrix, you’re a better man than I am. The last four weeks, we’ve seen him be lousy against the Saints, great against the Falcons, terrible against the 49ers and sharp in this win.

Of course, Young is always a low-ceiling player. He threw for an ordinary 206 yards on Sunday, and that was his third-highest count of the year.

Back to Stafford’s off game, it wasn’t an isolated thing in Week 13. Underperformance is everywhere. Lamar Jackson had a disappointing game in the loss to Cincinnati. The Eagles struggled to sustain offense (looking at you, Saquon Barkley) against an ordinary Chicago defense. The Colts had just 281 yards of offense against the nasty Houston defense. Amon-Ra St. Brown was hurt early in the Thanksgiving loss to Green Bay, and could miss some additional time.

Jaxon Smith-Njigba had just two catches for 23 yards in a one-sided win against Minnesota. Variance is a difficult reality for all of us.

Of course, there are always hits to be played. Bijan Robinson had a 192-yard party at the Jets, with a touchdown. De’Von Achane (22-134-1) has been remarkably consistent every week. Trey McBride (8-82-1) now has seven touchdowns in seven games, clicking perfectly with QB Jacoby Brissett. A.J. Brown (10-132-2), Rashee Rice (8-92-2), Jameson Williams (7-114-1) and CeeDee Lamb (7-112-1) were all fantastic in the stand-alone games earlier in the week.

We also had some key injury-return guys pop on Sunday. Bucky Irving was healthy enough to handle 19 touches en route to 81 yards and a score; he lost another touchdown on a holding penalty. Meanwhile, Rachaad White had just five touches and Sean Tucker was limited to two attempts; Irving clearly marked his territory here. Marvin Harrison Jr. (6-69-0, seven targets) looked good on the other side, though he was held back by a heel injury in the second half. Michael Wilson also kept seven targets, though they weren’t as productive (3-36-0).

The NFL is a snow-globe league. Our Circle of Trust is an evolving thing. Make peace with the fact that your roster shape will constantly be evolving, and your opinions are always written in pencil. And also make peace with the fact that sometimes you lose as a big favorite (and sometimes you get fortunate as a heavy underdog). It’s the fabric of the NFL.

Other Week 13 Booms

Jets, Saints find receivers: Both of these teams aren’t going anywhere, and their fans might be rooting for losses on Sundays — let’s move up in the draft. But maybe these franchises can develop some younger players, unwanted from opponents. The Saints might have paid too much for Devaughn Vele in the trade from Denver, but he looked the part in a 8-93-1 game at Miami. And Adonai Mitchell always seems to be open, it's just a matter of securing the ball. He did plenty of that in the win over Atlanta (9-102-1).

Browns keep offense buttoned up: You can understand why the Browns don’t want to throw rookie QB Shedeur Sanders to the wolves. He was limited to 25 pass attempts against San Francisco, in part because of windy conditions. But this conservative approach raises the floor of fellow rookie Quinshon Judkins, who handled 26 touches (23 runs, three catches) and collected 109 total yards. Judkins could find decent running lanes down the stretch against a favorable schedule (Titans, Bears, Bills, Steelers).

Other Week 13 Busts

Tennessee passing game: I wrote some nice things about Cam Ward and Chimere Dike this week. It didn’t translate to game day. Ward suffered through a nightmarish 3.7 YPA against Jacksonville, while Dike was held to nine total yards and lost a fumble on a kick return. It’s a good thing the Titans stole that crazy win at Arizona a few weeks back, otherwise they’d be looking a winless season right in the face. Next week’s date at Cleveland might be a race to 10 points.

Jonathan Taylor running uphill: Nobody is going to feel sorry for Taylor managers, given how he destroyed the league for over two months. But he was held without a touchdown for the third time in four games Sunday, though 121 total yards is a passable result. I actually thought Daniel Jones (7.4 YPA, no turnovers) was credible against the outstanding Houston defense, especially considering he's playing with a fractured fibula, and at least the Colts kept the usage tight — only six players were targeted. But with three losses in four weeks and a regressing offense, we have to reevaluate this entire group. Road trips at Jacksonville and Seattle could be tricky the next two weeks; Taylor and TE Tyler Warren are surely too good to bench, but everyone else tied to this offense is currently in limbo.