Will Ole Miss fall in CFP rankings without Lane Kiffin? How untimely departure for LSU will impact Rebels originally appeared on The Sporting News. Add The Sporting News as a Preferred Source by clicking here.
Lane Kiffin announced his decision to leave Ole Miss for LSU on Sunday.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementNow, the question becomes how that will impact Ole Miss' pending College Football Playoff run?
The College Football Playoff committee flipped No. 6 Oregon and No. 7 Ole Miss in last week's rankings, which chairman Hunter Yuracheck tried to justify with a "6-7" joke.
"We didn't have any discussion about Ole Miss and their coach, that was all about Oregon and their performance against USC," Yuracheck told ESPN's Rece Davis. "Their strength of schedule continues to climb, but they've been dominant on the offense and defense side of the ball, (and are) really good on special teams," Yurachek said.
With Kiffin out, that debate is going to bubble up again. How would the committee team view a team without its head coach? Is there a comparison to Florida State in 2023 after star quarterback Jordan Travis suffered a season-ending injury?
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Should Lane Kiffin coach Ole Miss in the CFP?
This is the most polarizing question, and there are layers. But this isn't a Group of 5 coach leveling up like North Texas' Eric Morris, who took the Oklahoma State job last week. Kiffin is leaving to coach another SEC school that is considered a rival, and the early signing period opens Dec. 3. If Kiffin stays, then Ole Miss athletic director Keith Carter would end up taking more heat than Kiffin.
Is this unfortunate? Of course, but Kiffin is choosing to leave for another school in the middle of a College Football Playoff run – a school the Rebels beat this season. There is finishing what you started, but this is leaving before it's finished.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWill Lane Kiffin's decision knock Ole Miss out of the CFP?
It won't knock the Rebels out of the College Football Playoff, and it shouldn't. Ole Miss finished 11-1 – the fourth time in five seasons under Kiffin the Rebels won 10 or more games. This was not a one-year wonder or dream season, but more of a reflection of the program Kiffin built in Oxford.
Ole Miss only has one victory against a ranked team – a 34-26 victory against No. 13 Oklahoma on Oct. 25. The Sooners have two losses and entered Saturday's action firmly in the top 10 of the College Football Playoff rankings. The Rebels' only loss was a 43-35 loss to No. 9 Georgia on Oct. 18. There is nothing on this resume that suggests a one-loss Ole Miss team should be left out of the College Football Playoff.
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Will this affect Ole Miss' playoff seeding?
Yes. If the "6-7" swap while Kiffin was still the head coach, then what can happen when he’s gone? Eight Power 4 teams entered Week 14 with either an unbeaten record or one loss, and No. 11 BYU was the only one left out of the top eight – the schools that will either get a first-round bye or a first-round home game.
The Rebels, however, actually could move up in the SEC pecking order given No. 3 Texas A&M lost 27-17 to No. 16 Texas on Friday. The Rebels could be ranked ahead of the Aggies, but No. 10 Alabama could jump Ole Miss with a win in the Iron Bowl and a berth in the SEC championship game. No. 4 Georgia will be the highest-ranked team in those rankings.
Unless Kiffin’s departure is an overly compelling factor, Ole Miss still should get a first-round home playoff game as a top-eight seed – but they will not fall out of the College Football Playoff.
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Is Lane Kiffin situation comparable to Florida State, Jordan Travis?
Florida State was ranked No. 4 the week before winning the ACC championship and completing a 13-0 season in 2023. Yet one-loss Alabama jumped from No. 8 to No. 4 and leapfrogged the Seminoles in the final four-team College Football Playoff.
Why? Florida State did not have star quarterback Jordan Travis, who suffered a season-ending ankle fracture in the next-to-last regular-season game. FSU's offense went from 38 ppg with Travis to 20 ppg with backups.
Still, it was a shocking decision, and the revisionist history has not been favorable toward the committee.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThat is why it is almost impossible to believe Ole Miss would drop out of the College Football Playoff, given the teams they are ranked ahead of heading into conference championship week.
How much does Kiffin’s presence matter? A lot, of course, but it is not enough to penalize a one-loss SEC team that should be one of the five teams from the conference to make the 12-team field. Does it put a damper on that potential first-round game? Of course, but that is part of a larger calendar question where college football needs to embody the NFL. If an interim coach makes a wild-card run in the NFL – then so be it. Nobody has that debate at the pro level.
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