The Green Bay Packers’ opportunity for the 1 seed in the NFC has opened up

What a rollercoaster of a season it has been for the Green Bay Packers. After starting 2-0 against two 2024 playoff teams, the Packers were on top of the world. After Week 10, though, when Green Bay lost back-to-back games while scoring just 20 combined points, there were real questions about whether the team would make the playoffs. Now, after Week 13’s action, there’s a real chance the team could win the top seed in the NFC.

How quickly things change in the NFL.

Beyond the Packers’ win over the Detroit Lions on Thanksgiving, Green Bay got some help in the one-seed race this week with losses by both the Philadelphia Eagles and the Los Angeles Rams. I’m sure many of you wanted the Eagles to beat the Chicago Bears on Black Friday, but that Bears win might end up being a blessing in disguise, as Green Bay still controls its own destiny in the division with two Chicago games left on the schedule.

NFC North Standings

• Chicago Bears: 9-3

• Green Bay Packers: 8-3-1

• Detroit Lions: 7-5

• Minnesota Vikings: 4-7

NFC North Title Odds, via NYT

• Green Bay Packers: 65 percent

• Chicago Bears: 30 percent

• Detroit Lions: 4 percent

• Minnesota Vikings: <1 percent

As you can see, the Packers are in pretty good shape in the division. If Green Bay sweeps the Bears, the New York Times projects the Packers to win the division 92 percent of the time, no matter what else happens in Green Bay’s three other games to end the year — or any other games for the rest of the NFL season, for that matter.

NFC Standings

1. Chicago Bears: 9-3

2. Los Angeles Rams: 9-3

3. Philadelphia Eagles: 8-4

4. Tampa Bay Buccaneers: 7-5

5. Seattle Seahawks: 8-3

6. Green Bay Packers: 8-3-1

7. San Francisco 49ers: 9-4

8. Detroit Lions: 7-5

9. Dallas Cowboys: 6-5-1

10. Carolina Panthers: 7-6

11. Atlanta Falcons: 4-7

12. Minnesota Vikings: 4-7

13. Washington Commanders: 3-8

14. Arizona Cardinals: 3-9

15. New Orleans Saints: 2-9

16. New York Giants: 2-10

After the Rams’ and Eagles’ losses this week, the only teams in the NFC with better win percentages than the Packers are the Bears (who Green Bay is likely to pass up in the NFC North down the stretch), the Rams and the Seattle Seahawks.

The Rams and Seahawks play each other later this year. The Rams also get the in-the-hunt Lions, while the Seahawks have to play the in-the-hunt 49ers.

Per the NYT’s playoff simulator, the Packers’ odds of becoming the one seed jumped from 8 percent to 15 percent on Sunday after the Rams’ loss to the Panthers. Prior to the Eagles losing on Friday, Green Bay’s one-seed percentage was below 5 percent. While 15 percent might not seem like much to write home about, remember that the Packers’ chances to get a first-round bye were basically zero after Green Bay’s back-to-back losses against the Eagles and Panthers. Now, there’s at least a fighting chance. Momentum is quickly swinging their way.

We’re officially in “we care about more than just the division” mode. If you’re a Packers fan, remember to root against the Eagles, Rams and Seahawks down the stretch, not just the Bears, as Green Bay has a real opportunity to earn the top seed in the NFC over the final five weeks of the season.