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Alright, let's get right to it before Week 13 continues with 11 more games today.
Below, I'll break down why I like
- 1️⃣ Houston (+3) to cover as road underdogs in Indianapolis
- 2️⃣ Seattle (-11.5) to blow out Max Brosmer and the Vikings at home
- 3️⃣ Denver (-6.5) to win big over the Commanders in primetime
1️⃣ Texans (+3) at Colts -- 1 p.m. (CBS)
I was already tempted to take the Texans (6-5) to cover, and I was also interested in them on the moneyline early this week. And that was before we found out that A) CJ Stroud would be back this afternoon, and B) Daniel Jones is playing through a fractured fibula.
After sacking Josh Allen eight times last Thursday, the Texans' D should be able to keep the Colts (8-3) -- who have recently struggled to move the ball after a red-hot start -- in check. I also expect a Houston offense that has finally looked solid in recent weeks, without Stroud, to have a solid day with the former Rookie of the Year finally back in action.
A victory by the Texans -- who have won six of eight after an 0-3 start -- wouldn't surprise me, and I absolutely love them at +3.
Pick: Texans +3 (best odds: -105 at DraftKings)
2️⃣ Vikings at Seahawks (-11.5) -- 4:05 p.m. (FOX)
Last week, I was right when I predicted that the Seahawks (8-3) would jump out to a big early lead on Cam Ward and the Titans. Unfortunately, Seattle failed to pull away down the stretch. I'm nevertheless going to back to the well (the Seahawks' incredible defense) today.
Part of me wouldn't be shocked to see Vikings head coach Kevin O'Connell scheme up a solid day for undrafted rookie Max Brosmer's debut … We shouldn't overthink this, though: Seattle should be able to rattle Brosmer, especially at Lumen Field. As long as Sam Darnold takes care of the football, Seattle will have a great chance to win this game by two touchdowns.
The Vikings (4-7) have been one of the worst teams in the league in recent weeks, and I don't see them righting the ship today with an undrafted rookie making his debut at one of the toughest venues in the league for opposing offenses.
Pick: Seahawks -11.5 (best odds: -115 at DK, FD)
3️⃣ Broncos (-6.5) at Commanders -- 8:20 p.m. (NBC/Peacock)
Like Minnesota, Washington (3-8) started the season strong, but it has been awful in recent weeks.
The Commanders have struggled on both sides of the ball throughout their six-game losing streak, and I'd be shocked to see them turn it around against the Broncos (9-2).
Denver's nine wins include a number of close calls, but I expect this team to run the football successfully tonight. On the other side of the football, the Broncos D might be the toughest unit Marcus Mariota has faced all season.
In fact, the last time we saw Washington in primetime against an elite defensive team, the Commanders fell behind 31-7 at halftime en route to a 38-14 loss to the Seahawks in Week 9.
A similar outcome tonight wouldn't surprise me one bit, especially with Denver coming off a bye and welcoming back superstar corner Patrick Surtain II.
I should mention here that Washington is also coming off a bye, but I don't think the week of rest will be nearly enough for the underdogs to keep this one close for 60 minutes.
Pick: Broncos -6.5 (best odds: -108 at DraftKings)
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