Lessons in Vanderbilt Football: Kentucky

Being able to say “the score did not indicate how the game went” in an SEC game that Vanderbilt won 45-17 and not meaning it as “Vanderbilt got away with one” is so refreshing. In a game where Diego Pavia set the Vanderbilt single game passing record and Kentucky had 91 yards of total offense with a minute left in the 3rd quarter, the 28-point margin of victory felt like a letdown. Leading 45-3 to start the 4th quarter, Clark Lea called off the big dogs. The backups were inserted and given the chance to be aggressive, but they struggled against Kentucky’s still-playing first string.

Vanderbilt shifts its focus from the 2nd nearest SEC foe to the the closest for the traditional (circa 2014) Rivalry Weekend matchup with in-state foe the “University” of Tennessee. With 10 other data points, what did we learn against Kentucky?

Lessons We Know Well

Diego Pavia is not only Vanderbilt’s best player, but he might be the best player in the country. The knocks about his ability to throw the ball well have looked a bit silly the last 3 weeks as he has passed for 365 yards at Texas, 377 yards against Auburn, and 484 yards against Kentucky. Over that stretch, he was 85 of 110 passing. Completing 77% of your passes while averaging 11.1 yards per attempt and 14.4 yards per completion. The ball is going downfield, and it is going downfield well.

One of those normal downfield, mostly in the middle of the field, options Eli Stowers had one of his quietly effective days. Instead of making explosive plays like he had against Texas and Auburn, Stowers made 6 catches for 36 yards. He did not go over 100 yards as he had in the previous 2 games, nor did he average 10 or 20 yards per catch, but he converted for first downs on 4 or 5 of those 6 catches. When Vanderbilt needed a sure thing, OC Tim Beck and Pavia knew who to target. Big games need big players. Is this another simple and effective game, or is it an explosive one from the dangerous TE?

Two other pass catches had been part of this series early then went lukewarm, and I let them slip because they were mostly just okay performances with some good but also some drops or disappearing acts. As the ball has been more and more in Pavia’s hands as a passer, they have stepped up. Junior Sherrill has had games of 5 catches for 83 yards, 4 catches for 74 yards, and 8 catches for 115 yards. Tre Richardson was light against Texas with only 2 catches for 21 yards, but he went off on deep balls against Auburn and Kentucky. In order, he had 3 catches for 124 yards and 6 catches for 159 yards. The deep balls to Richardson may push Tennessee’s secondary back to open up Stowers and Sherrill and others in the short to intermediate game. Richardson is also a dangerous player on screens and other short throws that let him use his return ability. He got hosed on that kick return, too. The kicker grabbed the blocker as much as the blocker grabbed the kicker.

Vanderbilt’s rushing attack was yet again stifled with Pavia the leading rusher at 48 yards over 15 carries. He was sacked 3 times for 15 yards, so his actual carries were 12 for 63. Still, the OL is not able to make the holes they could early in the season. I am not sure if that is about other teams finding scheme fits, or if it is purely situational. When Pavia is throwing the ball as well as he is, most of the runs are coming in obvious, short yardage situations. It is a bit disappointing to see the OL not mauling like they did early in the season, even against Alabama. The big guys also, like the rest of the team, HAVE to keep their emotions in check. Kentucky got them acting out with some cheap shots on Pavia. Yes, they need to protect and stand up for their QB, but they have to do it between the whistles and in ways that do not involve penalties.

The run defense showed up. They held Kentucky’s dangerous duo of McGowan and Dowdell to 32 yards on 14 carries. They have a tall task ahead of them with DeSean Bishop and Star Thomas who both average better than 5.6 yards per carry. Bryan Longwell was a human missile against Kentucky and blew up multiple plays even though the stat line only says 3 tackles (2 solo with 1 TFL) for the game. He was consistently taking on lead blockers or getting into the intended gap to divert runs. The DL did a really good job of occupying all 5, or even 6 blockers, with their 4 to give the linebackers and safeties free reign to make plays.

The defense in general has shown that they are at their best when playing aggressive and on that edge of too intense. They need to keep the taunting and talking in check, but when the Commodores are flying to the ball and really trying to stick tight to WRs while bringing heat on opposing QBs, they can be very disruptive. Cutter Boley was sacked twice and threw 2 interceptions. Backup Zach Calzada threw the ball away once, too, while stepping in for the banged up Boley. Vanderbilt had 5 non-sack tackles for loss. Tennessee has only allowed 14 sacks on the season, which ranks T-20th in FBS. However, Aguilar has thrown 10 interceptions with 4 of them in the last 3 games. Oklahoma sacked him 4 times which probably helped create the their 2 INTs. Unleash the heat and let High and Taylor on the back end hunt the ball.

On that note, the defensive line looked re-energized off the bye week. They looked the defensive line we saw to start the season. Capers was particularly disruptive with 4 tackles. They rotate so much that individual statistical standouts are rare, but they were making their presence known around the Kentucky QBs, both pressuring and keeping him in the pocket. The latter detail was what hurt them against Auburn. They were able to both collapse the pocket and not give escape routes for scrambling throws. Edge and gap integrity were on point.

Brock. Taylor. Called on once from 39. Converted.

Penalties flared up again in an emotionally charged game. Vanderbilt was assessed 70 yards of penalties over 7 accepted calls. Kentucky was penalized for 65 yards on 7 of their own infractions. There were 2 or 3 other players with offsetting calls. Emotions running high is expected in the Vanderbilt-Kentucky game, but they will be on another level with today’s Vanderbilt-Tennessee game. The teams have never met while ranked, and Vanderbilt needs a statement win to have any hope of making the College Football Playoff while Tennessee wants to ruin that opportunity and give themselves a chance to live up to Steve Spurrier’s jab about the Citrus Bowl.

Lessons We Are Learning

Vanderilt has risen to every moment so far. I mentioned this last week, and they did just about as well could be hoped for against Kentucky. They maybe took the foot off the gas a bit too soon to really make a statement, but the CFP Committee seems more worried about other factors than anything Vanderbilt has done. This is THE moment. A win today stamps this as the best Vanderbilt football season since the inception of the SEC in 1933. It likely puts Pavia in New York for the Heisman ceremony. In Neyland, the Commodores have to stick to their identity and enjoy the emotions of the game without letting it control them. If they do that, all of the accolades and history will come to fruition. If not, this could be a huge missed opportunity for the program.

Lessons for Further Study

We saw some quirks out of the bye week. Gabe Fisher spent a lot of time lined up split wide. He also caught a pass. There were some other interesting formational choices on offense. Will those re-appear a week later with layered play calls intended to use last week’s plays as decoys for other options? Can the defense get creative without exposing themselves? What deployments will we see of defensive personnel against Heupel’s offense? These are all choices this coaching staff has to make. They could make or break the game.

Once more unto the breach. Pray for me and all the other Vandy fans who will be entering into the cesspit that is Neyland Stadium. Their fans have spent all week saying vile things about Pavia’s mother. I am sure there will be some scuffles on the field and maybe, but hopefully not, into the stands, too. Anchor. The. F—. Down.