Why the Recent Dylan Cease Contract Should Worry Seattle Mariners

Earlier this week, the Toronto Blue Jays inked right-handed pitcher Dylan Cease to a seven-year contract worth $210 million.

That deal affects the Seattle Mariners in two ways:

1) The Jays, who already beat the M's in seven games in the American League Championship Series, just got better. The goal of getting to the World Series in 2026 just became tougher for the M's.

2) That contract just drove up the price on the Mariners as they think about retaining their own pitching staff in the future.

Let's examine:

On the positive side of things, Cease is one of the best strikeout artists in baseball. In fact, since 2020, he has the most strikeouts in the sport, as noted by Sportsnet Stats.

He's also incredibly durable, having made 32 starts or more in each of the last five seasons.

He also has two Top-5 finishes for the Cy Young in his career, one in each league.

On the down side? He's about to be 30 years old. He's never been an All-Star. And he's led his league in walks twice in his career. He's coming off a season in which he had a 4.55 ERA, though his FIP was just 3.56, suggesting he was better than his numbers indicate. That said, he hasn't consistently dominated throughout his career: He's had an ERA of at least 3.47 in each of the last three years.

Logan Gilbert is 28 years old and is under team control for two more seasons. He will hit free agency at 30, going on 31, about a year older than Cease. Even if the Mariners signed him today to a free-agent deal, don't you think that Cease is the starting point for his representation? Wouldn't his representation ask for more since Gilbert is younger?

And oh by the way, Gilbert is an All-Star (2024), who has a Top-6 Cy Young finish under his belt, so it's not like it's an unfair comparison.

Kirby is 27, going on 28, and he's under team control through 2028. He'd hit free agency at 30 going on 31 as well. The Cease deal would seem to be a starting point for him also, and considering he's also younger, his representation would likely ask for more also.

And then there's Bryan Woo, who's just 25. He just finished fifth in the American League Cy Young voting, so any extension for him would also be compared against Cease, who he's significantly younger than.

Gilbert has confirmed that the M's and his agency have had talks about an extension before, but nothing has happened yet. The Mariners have shown a willingness to extend their own (Julio Rodriguez, Cal Raleigh, Andres Munoz), but will they eventually be able to afford all these arms?

Will they want to? Considering they have Jurrangelo Cijntje, Ryan Sloan and Kade Anderson on the way?

LATEST PODCAST IS OUT: Brady Farkas is back for the the latest episode of the Refuse to Lose podcast! He covers the Josh Naylor news from every angle including the message it sends to the clubhouse and fanbase. Also, what's next for Seattle? LISTEN HERE:

BIG MAPLE GETS BIG HONOR: James Paxton is set to receive a big honor from Baseball Canada early in 2026. CLICK HERE:

HOW WILL WOO BE VIEWED?: Bryan Woo was the ace in 2025, but is he seen as the ace moving forward? CLICK HERE:

Remember to join our MARINERS on ROUNDTABLE community, which is FREE! You can post your own thoughts, in text or video form, and you can engage with our Roundtable staff, as well as other Mariners fans. If prompted to download the Roundtable APP, that's free too!