Nick BrombergSenior writerMon, November 24, 2025 at 3:10 PM UTC·6 min readThe ACC doomsday scenario is unlikely to happen.
Sorry James Madison, we're not optimistic about your long-shot College Football Playoff bid. Would it be fantastic for college football if non-power conferences got two of the five automatic bids into the 12-team playoff? Absolutely. But let's be real here. The committee is unlikely to make that happen. And even if it did, think of the machinations that would unfold to ensure that it never happened again.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThat's why we're not getting worked up over the idea that the ACC could miss out on the playoff and neither should you.
Let's get this out of the way first; Miami needs an exact combination of results in the ACC's eight conference games to make the conference championship game. Despite being the highest ACC team in the CFP rankings, the Hurricanes are probably going to need some misfortune ahead as an at-large team.
But the ACC has four other teams ranked in Sunday's AP poll. It's unlikely that the number in Tuesday's CFP rankings will be substantially different, even if Georgia Tech's chances of making the playoff are also pretty slim.
Pitt, SMU and Virginia have the best chances of playing in the conference title game. If one of those three wins the ACC title — by far the most likely scenario — then that team will most likely end up ahead of James Madison in the final CFP rankings.
Here is our latest CFP projection with just one week to go in the regular season.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement1. Ohio State (11-0, projected Big Ten champion)
The Buckeyes didn’t need WRs Jeremiah Smith and Carnell Tate to easily beat Rutgers. But they’re going to need them against Michigan on Saturday and again in the Big Ten title game — assuming Ohio State beats the Wolverines.
It’s easy to see how the receivers’ absences against the Scarlet Knights were precautionary, but if they're hampered or don't play against Michigan, that’s a huge boost for the Wolverines. Ohio State doesn’t have as much dynamism behind their star wide receivers … but few teams would given how good they are.
2. Indiana, (11-0, at-large)
Indiana is by far the safest bet among the three undefeated teams to get to 12-0. Yes, it’s a rivalry game, but the Hoosiers are four-touchdown favorites over Purdue. There’s a chaos scenario in the Big Ten’s tiebreakers that could result in a Michigan vs. Ohio State title game after the two play in Week 14. But that would require the biggest upset of the season. We don’t think that’s going to happen.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisement3. Texas A&M (11-0, projected SEC champion)
The Aggies had a get-in, get-out, get-on-with-it game against Samford. Marcel Reed threw three touchdown passes in the first quarter before leaving the game and the Aggies had a 31-0 lead at halftime. Samford — 1-11 overall at the FCS level — had 77 total yards on 48 plays.
Things get much more serious on Friday as the Aggies head to Texas. A loss could drop A&M out of the SEC championship game for the second season in a row.
4. Georgia (10-1, at-large)
Georgia played an FBS opponent in Week 13 but Charlotte is one of the worst teams at the top level of college football. Gunner Stockton’s stat line wasn’t spectacular, but it didn’t need to be. Big games against Georgia Tech and, potentially, the SEC title game could still get him to New York as a Heisman finalist.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementThe Bulldogs may also be in a bit of a quandary. Sure, they want to play for an SEC title. But they could get a first-round bye at 11-1. A bye at 11-2 with a loss in the SEC title game probably isn’t happening.
No. 12 Tulane (9-2, projected American champion) at No. 5 Texas Tech (10-1, projected Big 12 champion)
The Green Wave are looking great to host the American title game. Based on tiebreakers, Tulane will host the conference title game with a home win against Charlotte on Saturday — assuming, of course, they’re still the top-ranked team from the conference in the CFP rankings. No matter if Tulane plays North Texas or Navy, the Green Wave should be favored because of home-field advantage.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementTech was off in Week 13 and heads to West Virginia on Saturday. The scenario to get into the Big 12 title game is simple. A win for the Red Raiders has them playing for the conference title and a potential first-round bye in the College Football Playoff.
No. 11 SMU (8-3, projected ACC champion) at No. 6 Ole Miss (10-1, at-large)
Welcome to the playoff party, SMU. The Mustangs visit Cal on Saturday night in a game that isn’t a gimme by any means. But a win gets SMU into the ACC title game where it could play Virginia if the Cavaliers beat Virginia Tech at home.
Ole Miss heads to Mississippi State on Black Friday for a game that seems to have come secondary to the questions surrounding Lane Kiffin’s coaching future. And that really stinks for Ole Miss’ players. This is a special season and you can make a case that Ole Miss is a national title contender, especially with a good playoff draw.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementNo. 10 Alabama (9-2, at-large) at No. 7 Oregon (10-1, at-large)
Unlike Georgia, the only way Alabama misses the SEC title game is with a loss to Auburn. And a loss to Auburn knocks the Tide out of the playoff entirely. Where it could get sticky for Alabama is if the Tide lose in the SEC title game and finish 10-3, but that’s a problem to worry about if it happens.
Oregon doesn’t have an easy game in Week 14 either as it travels to Washington. The Huskies haven’t been ranked since losing in the rain to Wisconsin, but they’re a very good football team that could absolutely make that game much closer than Oregon’s win over USC.
AdvertisementAdvertisementAdvertisementWe’re fascinated to see how the committee treats that win over USC, too. Oregon has been below Ole Miss and Texas Tech because of a lack of top-25 wins but now has victories over teams the committee ranked in each of the past two weeks. Will they get a boost on Tuesday night for beating the team that the committee had ranked at No. 15?
No. 9 Oklahoma (9-2, at-large) at No. 8 Notre Dame (9-2, at-large)
Yes, we’ve dropped Oklahoma a spot after a home win over Missouri. Oklahoma is good. Oklahoma’s defense is great. But Notre Dame is a more complete team — even if Syracuse is not the model football team at the moment — than the Sooners.
And we think the committee will ding Oklahoma if it looks like an offensive mess again against LSU. If Notre Dame dominates Stanford and Oklahoma beats LSU by 10 or fewer, it’s a conversation worth having. Heck, we wouldn’t rule out the committee flipping Notre Dame and Oklahoma this week.
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