2025 Week 14 Preview: SMU Mustangs @ California Golden Bears

Game notes

• Time and date: Saturday, November 29 at 8:00 p.m. ET

• Network: ESPN2

• Location: California Memorial Stadium — Berkeley, CA

• Spread: SMU (-13.5)

• Over/under: 52.5

• All-time series: SMU leads, 2-0

• Last meeting: SMU 38, California 6 — November 30, 2024

• Current streak: SMU, 2 (1957-24)

Setting the scene

The ACC is on the line. All SMU needs to do is win in Berkeley, and the Mustangs are berthed their second-straight ACC Championship Game appearance — despite only belonging to the conference for two seasons. SMU can still qualify with a loss, but the Mustangs can save their fanbase from complex clinching scenarios by simply winning on the road — which they’ve successfully done on 13 of their last 16 trips.

Lining up on the other sideline is California, which hopes for a perfect senior day sendoff. The Golden Bears clinched bowl eligibility at six wins, but they’ll still be operating with an interim head coach in Nick Rolovich. Justin Wilcox was fired Sunday evening after nine years at the helm, and Cal must overcome the distractions to produce their second ranked win of November.

SMU Mustangs outlook

SMU (8-3, 6-1 ACC) is on the brink of a third-straight conference championship appearance and a second-straight in the ACC. The Mustangs started 2-2 but entered a new gear after several hiccups vs. in-state Big 12 rivals early in the season. They’re fresh off their two largest victories of the year — 32-point dominations of Boston College and a shorthanded Louisville.

Quarterback Kevin Jennings, the architect to last year’s playoff run, is playing his best football now. The second-year starter rides a 3-game streak of firing over 300 yards, and he delivered an efficient three touchdowns in last week’s 38-6 thrashing of the Cardinals. Due to battling season-long ankle injury, Jennings’ mobility is noticeably limited compared to last year, but his pocket passing is as sharp as ever. Limiting interceptions will be key though, and SMU’s hitting its stride in November due to a lack of turnovers compared to the two previous months.

SMU is 34th nationally in scoring offense, checking in outside the top 15 for the first time since 2018. Still, this unit presents impressive skill talent to thrive, especially in the wide receiver room. Jordan Hudson has 90+ yards in four of his last five games, stepping up as SMU’s No. 1 receiver after missing the bulk of September. Romello Brinson thrives as a deep threat as well, while Yamir Knight excels as a short-yardage threat on contested catches. But the Mustangs’ passing game is granted another dimension thanks to a talented one-two punch of tight ends — RJ Maryland and Matthew Hibner, who combine for five touchdown receptions.

The Mustangs are 100th in rushing, but T.J. Harden is looking to redefine that after generating 220 yards in the past two outings. It’s not that SMU is necessarily bad at the run game (4.1 yards per carry), but Casey Woods’ offense isn’t grounding it as much this year, ranked 121st in the FBS in attempts.

Despite a year-over-year drop in the offensive numbers, the primary reason SMU is in prime position for an ACC title game appearance is defense. No, it’s not the passing defense which allows the third-most yards in the FBS at 281 per game, but rather, a relentless group of run-stoppers that also force the most turnovers in the nation. No team has more takeaways than the Mustangs’ 27, and free safety Ahmaad Moses is the leader of the movement with five interceptions and two fumble recoveries. Strong safety Isaiah Nwokobia also makes a significant impact with 11 picks in a Mustang uniform.

The defensive line is perhaps the strongest unit on this defense, limiting opposing ball carriers to 3.0 yards per attempt (13th in FBS). Defensive end Isaiah Smith is the ACC leader with 17 tackles for loss in addition to 8.5 sacks. Three other d-linemen (Cam Robertson, Jeffrey M’ba, Terry Webb) all boast at least 6.5 TFLs in a defense that relies significantly on pressure up front — which plays a significant role in the favorable turnover margin.

California Golden Bears outlook

California (6-5, 3-4 ACC) is two-for-two when it comes to bowling as an ACC team. The Golden Bears finished 6-7 each of the past two years, but they’re still on the prowl for their first winning campaign since 2019. That can be attained with an upset victory on senior day Saturday night.

One figure that won’t be present to greet the seniors he coached is Justin Wilcox, who was recently fired after nearly nine full years of service in Berkeley. Former Hawaii and Washington State head coach Nick Rolovich received general manager Ron Rivera’s blessing and will step in after previously operating as the senior offensive analyst for the team.

It’s been an up-and-down year for Cal which saw highlights of defeating Minnesota by two touchdowns and upsetting Louisville on the road, but lowlights of taking a shutout at San Diego State and dropping The Game to Stanford in 31-10 fashion. Cal looks for a sense of stability, and it starts with true freshman quarterback Jaron-Keawe Sagapolutele.

JKS has fired for over 200 yards in all 11 starts in a respectable debut campaign. And he’s dealt with plenty of reps, starring on an offense which throws at the 13th-highest rate in the FBS with 39 attempts per game. His numbers are fairly consistent, ranging from 200 to 290 in 10 of 11 starts, but what Cal needs most to set him up for success is improved pass protection.

Cal surrenders 2.8 sacks per game, and those numbers are only worsening as the season progresses. The Golden Bears allowed 15 sacks in their last four games and finished 1-3 as a result. With the quarterback constantly in duress and struggles with run blocking, Cal ranks dead last in the FBS with 2.5 yards per rush. Since former SMU running back LJ Johnson Jr. has been out with injury for the last four games, the backfield primarily belongs to Kendrick Raphael, who seeks his first 100-yard game since September.

But the Golden Bears’ best path to unseating SMU from the ACC title game involves the aerial attack. Jacob De Jesus, Trond Grizzell, and tight end Mason Mini will serve as the primary targets against the Mustangs’ 134th-ranked passing defense. The 5’7” De Jesus is a consistent force with 85+ yards in four of his last five, while the 6’4” Grizzell contrasts as a big play threat, averaging roughly 15 yards per catch on the season.

Cal’s defense is headlined by inside linebacker Cade Uluave, a third-year Bear who continues an upward trajectory. The junior owns career-highs in tackles (84), sacks (3.0), and tackles for loss (10.5) as the most dangerous defender on the unit. Uluave can star in coverage as well, racking up four pass breakups in an October victory over North Carolina.

SMU doesn’t shy away from throwing it vertical, and Cal cornerback Hezekiah Masses will need to make the Mustangs pay for their risks. Masses is the ACC leader with five interceptions, and the likely all-conference corner also has 12 pass breakups in a standout season.

Prediction

The most lopsided matchup when SMU travels to Cal is the Mustangs’ d-line vs. the Golden Bears’ o-line. Simply put, SMU should dominate the trenches on this side, making it difficult for Cal to establish a run game and limit the time for routes to develop. The Golden Bears can still inflict some damage off quick screens or on plays where JKS is granted some time, but the Mustangs’ defense won’t make this an easy matchup.

SMU’s offense has been subject to frequent turnovers this year, and Hezekiah Masses and the Cal defense may catch the Mustangs with several in this matchup. But SMU presents enough firepower to overcome a sloppy road performance, and it clears its final obstacle to clinch a second-straight ACC title game.

Prediction: SMU 28, California 20