3 Things to Watch For In Saints-Dolphins Matchup

The New Orleans Saints travel to Miami to do battle with Mike McDaniel and the Miami Dolphins on Sunday, and the two teams have a lot in common, even if they wouldn't like to. The Dolphins enter the matchup at 4-7, while the Saints are 2-9. Miami has ripped off two in a row, including one overseas victory. Perhaps the late-season wins can be enough to help McDaniel stay employed. On the other side, the Saints are just moving toward draft season and wondering where they will end up drafting in the first round.

Here are three things to watch on Sunday:

New Orleans offense is as bad as the Dolphins defense

New Orleans' offense ranks 29th in the NFL in EPA/play (-0.12). The Dolphins' defense ranks 27th in EPA/play (0.10). The Saints' offense has the worst explosive play rate at 6.8%. The Dolphins' defense allows the third-highest explosive play rate at 12.4%. The Saints' offense has the fifth-worst EPA/DB at -0.12. Miami ranks third-worst on EPA/DB at 0.23. Finally, the Saints rank 25th in offensive success rate at 42.3% and Miami ranks 26th in defensive success rate at 47.6%.

The similarities don't stop there. New Orleans is 27th in EPA per play against single high looks at -0.12, while Miami is allowing the third-worst EPA per play in single high looks at 0.24. Miami blitzes at the fourth-highest rate (38%), but ranks 23rd in the NFL with a 27.8% pressure rate and the second-worst EPA when generating pressure at -0.19. The Saints rank 24th in pressure rate allowed at 32.3%.

Miami's use of motion

At 70%, Miami leads the NFL in pre-snap motion. While it hasn't translated to success via EPA (-0.03, 25th), New Orleans is 28th in the NFL when facing motion with an EPA of 0.16. The Saints have faced motion at the fifth-highest rate (59.3%). The Dolphins use motion on run and pass plays to create angles in the run game, and mismatches in the secondary for explosive plays with YAC. New Orleans will have to remain disciplined and not fall for the eye candy and window dressing on Sunday.

An increased use of play action for New Orleans?

Alvin Kamara has been ruled out, and the Saints will start Devin Neal with Taysom Hill sprinkled in for short-area runs, but successfully running the football can unlock an aspect of the offense the Saints usually don't deploy. Play action rate for the Saints is second to last in EPA at -0.20, but their play action rate is the fifth-lowest at 18.4%.

Miami is second to last in EPA defending play action at 0.43. It might be time to add it to the game plan.